Winter 2021-22

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I do that because trying to guess what happens next and finding patterns in things to try to guess what happens is just in my nature. Not so easily satisfied just not knowing or having stuff have no rhyme or reason when it comes to desirable outcomes.

Now I'm slowly coming around to the reality of chaos in weather, however...but I still would like to know if we see warning level snow again. Because if that is no longer possible I won't pay much attention to any seasonal anything or track any winter on this board. But we don't know yet...and I don't like that we do not know, lol It's like...I'd rather know now (and bemoan and vent out the disappointment over not seeing it again), instead of having to have wait to find out later.

But again.....we simply can't know...yet

There are some pretty smart people in this field. If there was reliable predictability to seasonal they would have found it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are some pretty smart people in this field. If there was reliable predictability to seasonal they would have found it. 

That is very true! A simple yet enlightening point...

[aldie 22]

This winter has been exhausting already

[StormchaserChuck!]

big time -NAO still.. should be interesting

^ Solar max ascending underperforming, same point in cycle

Just to give it away though, it should be like this

[StormchaserChuck!]

Solar Max peaked Sept 2001, Solar Min peaked Feb/Mar 2020.. not sure how relevant it is. 

[Ji]

Well get some snow showers once in a while. The most important thing to me is getting digital snow threats

[Rhino16]

15 hours ago, Ji said:

Well get some snow showers once in a while. The most important thing to me is getting digital snow threats

You know that will start really soon. GFS always has a giant halloween snowstorm 14 days out every year

[mattie g]

On 8/21/2021 at 5:30 PM, psuhoffman said:

He seems to spend a lot of time trying to find patterns to explain the chaos. The best we can do with seasonal is perhaps pick out some drivers that can perhaps increase the odds slightly towards certain characteristics. Besides that you have to surrender to the chaos and roll with it. Or you will go crazy Imo. 

This right here. I honestly don't think there's much to be said beyond this except that there's a good argument to be made that the new, warmer background state will play havoc with our understanding of the effects of those drivers in our backyards.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, mattie g said:

This right here. I honestly don't think there's much to be said beyond this except that there's a good argument to be made that the new, warmer background state will play havoc with our understanding of the effects of those drivers in our backyards.

Good post

[09-10 analogy]

On 8/21/2021 at 5:51 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait hang on...95-96 was the only above median snowfall in the bunch. The rest didn't work well here. (and what's 20-22? We ain't there yet, lol)

84-85 10.3 inches

10-11 14.4 inches

(We lucked up with the 2010-11 late January storm...but missed Boxing day in the most nina way possible). More El niños than la ninas have worked. Some neutrals have worked. But the least likely enso state for decent snowfall has been la nina. 95-96 I think we can agree is an anomaly.

2010-11 basically sucked IMO. Carmaggedon was memorable locally primarily courtesy of the internal combustion engine. Otherwise it was 4-7” of (admittedly convective) slop that pummeled NYC with 20” and PHL with 15”. ( I don’t think Baltimore proper did much better.) Boxing day would be by acclimation the greatest screw job ever if we weren’t still coming of the high of the previous winter. Groundhog Day wasn’t our storm of course but that didn’t stop about 2/3 of the rest of the country from cashing in one way or another. Plus I think 40n got a few other moderate events that dc got squat from.

[SnowenOutThere]

8 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

You know that will start really soon. GFS always has a giant halloween snowstorm 14 days out every year

The scariest part about that is social media.  

[Maestrobjwa]

8 hours ago, mattie g said:

This right here. I honestly don't think there's much to be said beyond this except that there's a good argument to be made that the new, warmer background state will play havoc with our understanding of the effects of those drivers in our backyards.

And if that's the case...it's hard to imagine there being any good changes. Like...unless the warming suddenly changes a previously unproductive ENSO state like a Nina to something that can work, OR if the warming enhances a nino's positive effects on snow (kinda hard to believe), how can this go anyway but bad? (Seriously I'd like to know a scenario that could still work) And if it gets to the point where our climo becomes like the south...I'm not sure what the point of following things is. If the best we can manage is what we've gotten 2 of the last 3 years...and that even somewhat deep snow is no longer possible...why follow? I mean I get that some do it for the fun of it (but if you love snow I don't know how it doesn't make ya miserable, lol) But snow is what brought me to this in the first place, actually...8

I started a bit of a 5-phases process over this potential already. As I shoveled the few inches of snow we got back once back in Feb, I was sad lamenting that this may be as good as it gets now. I'm gonna miss having the occasional chance of a winter storm warning. Yes, scenery snows have their value (my appreciation grows looking at this reality)...but I'm gonna miss getting even 6-10 inches...as well as the less often (but still used to be every few years) 12"+. There's no way to dress it up. 

Guess we gotta wait and see...but I'm preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

[SnowenOutThere]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And if that's the case...it's hard to imagine there being any good changes. Like...unless the warming suddenly changes a previously unproductive ENSO state like a Nina to something that can work, OR if the warming enhances a nino's positive effects on snow (kinda hard to believe), how can this go anyway but bad? (Seriously I'd like to know a scenario that could still work) And if it gets to the point where our climo becomes like the south...I'm not sure what the point of following things is. If the best we can manage is what we've gotten 2 of the last 3 years...and that even somewhat deep snow is no longer possible...why follow? I mean I get that some do it for the fun of it (but if you love snow I don't know how it doesn't make ya miserable, lol) But snow is what brought me to this in the first place, actually...8

I started a bit of a 5-phases process over this potential already. As I shoveled the few inches of snow we got back once back in Feb, I was sad lamenting that this may be as good as it gets now. I'm gonna miss having the occasional chance of a winter storm warning. Yes, scenery snows have their value (my appreciation grows looking at this reality)...but I'm gonna miss getting even 6-10 inches...as well as the less often (but still used to be every few years) 12"+. There's no way to dress it up. 

Guess we gotta wait and see...but I'm preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

Don't worry all we need is the gulf stream to reverse, sure farming across the Eastern US and Europe would be extremely difficult but I think its worth that sacrifice.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Geez. 

[raindancewx]

I'm fairly optimistic for snow in the Northeast down to about Virginia at the moment. Don't think it will be cold overall though, or even that wet.

What reason do I have for that? The +WPO sort of fought off the -NAO signal in January in 2021 for you guys. Will that happen again if it goes negative? It could, but the WPO+ was at record levels in January, and it's a warm/anti-snow signal for a lot of the eastern US. I'm optimistic again for blocking at this juncture for the winter, but with less +WPO influence. 

You can sort of see the -NAO v. +WPO fight last January. Both are snowy signals out here, which is part of why I was fairly optimistic for SW snowfall last year despite the La Nina. It was a top five snowfall year since 2000 in Albuquerque even with the total precipitation for Oct-Mar something like -40% compared to averages. Not like it was particularly cold overall, despite some impressive bursts in Sept/Oct, Feb/Mar.

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Geez. 

What?

[Mr. Kevin]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm fairly optimistic for snow in the Northeast down to about Virginia at the moment. Don't think it will be cold overall though, or even that wet.

What reason do I have for that? The +WPO sort of fought off the -NAO signal in January in 2021 for you guys. Will that happen again if it goes negative? It could, but the WPO+ was at record levels in January, and it's a warm/anti-snow signal for a lot of the eastern US. I'm optimistic again for blocking at this juncture for the winter, but with less +WPO influence. 

You can sort of see the -NAO v. +WPO fight last January. Both are snowy signals out here, which is part of why I was fairly optimistic for SW snowfall last year despite the La Nina. It was a top five snowfall year since 2000 in Albuquerque even with the total precipitation for Oct-Mar something like -40% compared to averages. Not like it was particularly cold overall, despite some impressive bursts in Sept/Oct, Feb/Mar.

Why did we have a +wpo most of last winter? I think it's too early for anyone to really know what will happen imo

[GramaxRefugee]

12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What?

Maybe it's a reaction to your negative thought waves. (Or maybe not....I dunno )

That "deep snow is no longer possible" line comes around every cycle here in Balto. After living through the snowy 1960's, we said it in the 70s...and so on and on....  

OTOH, Nature seems to have a way of laughing at the weatherman and suddenly proving him wrong; so carry on I guess.

(No harm meant...I enjoy reading your posts)

[WinterWxLuvr]

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What?

If you felt my post was targeted at your post, then the answer to your question would seem self evident.

Please, let the “it’s never gonna snow again stuff go”. I promise you it will. And it will snow big again. You are trying to evaluate winter in time scales that are too small. As you go through your life as many of us have, you will learn that there are gonna be periods that stink. Then there are gonna be good periods. Unless you live at a latitude above about 42-44 you might as well get used to it.

Im not trying to be harsh. I’m trying to help. Hopefully you will see it that way.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Maybe it's a reaction to your negative thought waves. (Or maybe not....I dunno )

That "deep snow is no longer possible" line comes around every cycle here in Balto. After living through the snowy 1960's, we said it in the 70s...and so on and on....  

OTOH, Nature seems to have a way of laughing at the weatherman and suddenly proving him wrong; so carry on I guess.

(No harm meant...I enjoy reading your posts)

Tbh I do hope that's all it is...what worries me is the warming. The PAC jet has never been this warm this many years in a row, correct? What if that's the one factor (or if there are others) that's different than the snowless periods of the past? We don't know that...

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If you felt my post was targeted at your post, then the answer to your question would seem self evident.

Please, let the “it’s never gonna snow again stuff go”. I promise you it will. And it will snow big again. You are trying to evaluate winter in time scales that are too small. As you go through your life as many of us have, you will learn that there are gonna be periods that stink. Then there are gonna be good periods. Unless you live at a latitude above about 42-44 you might as well get used to it.

Im not trying to be harsh. I’m trying to help. Hopefully you will see it that way.

 

And again...how do we know this period that stinks isn't different from the other ones over the years? We got warming and maybe a climate we've never had in recorded history. Can we really know this isn't a permanent state? I've lived through our sucky periods...but being just 30, none of them have been this long (at least for "bigger" snow). We'd go 3-4 years...then we'd see a bigger event again. I'm used to that....this? Not so much. Particularly...given the unprecedented background state we might be in.

We're working on 7 years (in Baltimore, anyway). And it's a Nina so it might end up going another year. Even the 70s corrected themselves after 7 years...but what if today is different: we got this PAC jet and Hadley cells and other crap I keep hearing about the last 5-6 winters. Can we really know this time isn't different, again, given the climate? 

Given that...why is it illogical for me to wonder if this period of suck is different from the rest? I'm just going off of what some of you and other Mets have been saying about the "maybes" of a changing climate!!!

@psuhoffman was the one indicating that things might be different last winter (the "It can't even get cold enough with THIS setup?? C'mon!" posts). Unless I misread it...hearing that and Hadely and the PAC...is what kinda made me start giving up on bigger snows because the background state might be different from before...

I'd like to hear an alternative scenario about how this isn't a concern...but as PSU said, it is chaos and we really can't know for sure.

[EastCoast NPZ]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tbh I do hope that's all it is...what worries me is the warming. The PAC jet has never been this warm this many years in a row, correct? What if that's the one factor (or if there are others) that's different than the snowless periods of the past? We don't know that...

And again...how do we know this period that stinks isn't different from the other ones over the years? We got warming and maybe a climate we've never had in recorded history. Can we really know this isn't a permanent state? I've lived through our sucky periods...but being just 30, none of them have been this long (at least for "bigger" snow). We'd go 3-4 years...then we'd see a bigger event again. We're working on 7 years (in Baltimore, anyway). And it's a Nina so it might end up going another year. Even the 70s corrected themselves after 7 years...but what if today is different: we got this PAC jet and Hadley cells and other crap I keep hearing about the last 5-6 winters. Can we really know this time isn't different, again, given the climate? 

Given that...why is it illogical for me to wonder if this period of suck is different from the rest? I'm just going off of what some of you and other Mets have been saying about the "maybes" of a changing climate!!!

@psuhoffman was the one indicating that things might be different last winter (the "It can't even get cold enough with THIS setup?? C'mon!" posts). Unless I misread it...that and Hadely and the PAC...is what kinda made me start giving up on bigger snows because those things might be different from before...

I'd like to hear an alternative scenario...but as PSU said, it is chaos and really can't know for sure.

Relax.  You're already fretting about this winter and it's August.  Yes, it'll probably suck.  But not because the climate has suddenly warmed so much that snow is no longer possible; it'll probably suck because every year there is a 75% chance that it will.

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Relax.  You're already fretting about this winter and it's August.  Yes, it'll probably suck.  But not because the climate has suddenly warmed so much that snow is no longer possible; it'll probably suck because every year there is a 75% chance that it will.

Interestingly enough...I'm not fretting so much about this winter in particular (kinda already written it off since it's a nina, lol)...It's the winters AFTER it that I'm more worried about. I just hope the 75% doesn't turn into 80 or 85% or worse...I can live with 75% because that's what we've kinda known--that translates to every 3-4 winters! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Can we really know this isn't a permanent state?

No. And that applies to all things weather. You will never know. If you want snow certainty, it can be had. Move to New England, or the upper Midwest, or tho the Rocky Mountain states. Then you would know and wouldn’t have to fret about it.

[psuhoffman]

On 8/21/2021 at 5:29 PM, George001 said:

It’s definitely not good with the blob of warmth in the pacific right off the west coast being too far west. I don’t like seeing that, but at least the rest of the pacific is more mixed of warm and cool anomalies rather than the entire thing being on fire like last year (other than the Enzo region). Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t last years even worse? If I had to give it a rating on a 1-10 with 1 being terrible and 10 being great, I would give last years a 1.5, this years pacific a 4, and 2010-2011 a 9. How would you rate the pacific sst in terms of how favorable it is for winter in those 3 years?

It's hard to say... the pac in general hasn't looked good most of the time for a while.  You're trying to drill down to a level I don't really want to spend (waste?) much time on.  I don't feel comfortable weighting exactly which puke indicator is worse than that puke indicator.  Does a slightly stronger bad anomaly here outweigh some ambiguous or slightly good thing over there?  I don't know.  Its all linked anyways so I just weigh it holistically...but I don't spend a lot of time trying to figure out exactly how bad it is.  Bad is bad.  I don't have time to analyze exactly what level of bad.  

[IronTy]

All the progs indicated last year was supposed to be promising and it sucked.  Everybody is expecting this winter to suck so I'm going to invoke Bob Farrell's rule of investing:

When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen

 

Look for this winter to produce.  

 

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa

My time is more limited these days but let me address some of your concerns. 

Here is the full version...skip to the bottom if you want to short summary

1) There are some troubling signs I've noted.  One thing that really bothers me is seeing more and more examples where it rains with really low thicknesses during peak cold climo and favorable storm tracks.  We have had a few of those instances recently.  

2) It's also true we have had a lot of pac puke airmasses where boundary level temps are more likely to be problematic.  So it's impossible to say exactly how much of this is one factor v another.  It's also too soon to know if those 2 are related or to what degree.  The prevalence of pac puke airmasses flooding the CONUS is linked to the predominant pac jet pattern recently and there is some speculation that is related to the larger scale climate changes.  

3) But its impossible to say exactly to what degree is it this or that.  To what degree is this a sea change v a cyclical thing.  We know its getting warmer.  We know our snow climo is degrading.  We don't know to exactly what degree because it doesn't change linearly, the climate has both long and short term cycles.  We just have to wait and see.

Which brings me to this final comment...and please don't take any of this as an attack.  I am in no position to do such.  We all have our issues.  I have ADHD and know I am slightly on the spectrum and can be obsessive and repetitive.  I have my own problems.  

That said... your posts mostly boil down to 2 types....

A) trying to find meaningful patterns of regularity in the chaos.  The problem is any string of random chaos will inadvertently produce some patterns.  But without causality these patterns are random and often over time we find not indicative of any meaningful predictive value.  Like I said before...if there was meaningful predictive patterns they would have been identified by now.  

B)comments to the effect of...but then its never going to snow (much) again.  Problem with that is again...we just don't know.  DC will get another big snowstorm eventually.  Everything will break right.  We know its getting harder.  We don't have enough information yet to say to what degree.  Hopefully this is a combination of climo degradation AND a bad patch that will swing back.  Maybe we have seen a sea change and snow is much harder to achieve now.  We can't say yet.  But...pointing it out over and over isn't going to change it.  We can't answer this yet...and I know you want that answer....but we just have to wait and see.  

Short summary version

RELAX and just let the weather weather (and yea at times I need to take that advice too!!!) 

[Kevin Reilly]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa

My time is more limited these days but let me address some of your concerns. 

Here is the full version...skip to the bottom if you want to short summary

1) There are some troubling signs I've noted.  One thing that really bothers me is seeing more and more examples where it rains with really low thicknesses during peak cold climo and favorable storm tracks.  We have had a few of those instances recently.  

2) It's also true we have had a lot of pac puke airmasses where boundary level temps are more likely to be problematic.  So it's impossible to say exactly how much of this is one factor v another.  It's also too soon to know if those 2 are related or to what degree.  The prevalence of pac puke airmasses flooding the CONUS is linked to the predominant pac jet pattern recently and there is some speculation that is related to the larger scale climate changes.  

3) But its impossible to say exactly to what degree is it this or that.  To what degree is this a sea change v a cyclical thing.  We know its getting warmer.  We know our snow climo is degrading.  We don't know to exactly what degree because it doesn't change linearly, the climate has both long and short term cycles.  We just have to wait and see.

Which brings me to this final comment...and please don't take any of this as an attack.  I am in no position to do such.  We all have our issues.  I have ADHD and know I am slightly on the spectrum and can be obsessive and repetitive.  I have my own problems.  

That said... your posts mostly boil down to 2 types....

A) trying to find meaningful patterns of regularity in the chaos.  The problem is any string of random chaos will inadvertently produce some patterns.  But without causality these patterns are random and often over time we find not indicative of any meaningful predictive value.  Like I said before...if there was meaningful predictive patterns they would have been identified by now.  

B)comments to the effect of...but then its never going to snow (much) again.  Problem with that is again...we just don't know.  DC will get another big snowstorm eventually.  Everything will break right.  We know its getting harder.  We don't have enough information yet to say to what degree.  Hopefully this is a combination of climo degradation AND a bad patch that will swing back.  Maybe we have seen a sea change and snow is much harder to achieve now.  We can't say yet.  But...pointing it out over and over isn't going to change it.  We can't answer this yet...and I know you want that answer....but we just have to wait and see.  

Short summary version

RELAX and just let the weather weather (and yea at times I need to take that advice too!!!) 

I will be falling in the point #2 category believing that the oceans are warming incrementally over time and the largest body of water on Earth the Pacific Ocean is ruling the lower 48 overall winter pattern enveloping it with relative warmth.  

Now with that said warmer water holds more moisture so even if you get a modest cold set up tremendous amounts of snowfall can fall especially in a blocking pattern.

I do think that our number one reason why snowfall totals are falling is due to the warming of the oceans and warmth hanging around more than usual in effect shortening our opportunities to see meaningful snowfall in the eastern United States during shorten winter snowfall seasons over time. 

Here along the east coast we get a trifecta of warmth of water bodies:  The Pacific Ocean that has a Pacific Jet which seems to rage more often, The Atlantic, The Gulf of Mexico, and finally to a lesser extent let's not forget the above normal Great Lakes seemingly year after year. 

 

Yes, I do think it is linked to Climate Change.  I am starting to get annoyed with these phrases from weather professionals:

 

"That's a once in a 100 year event" or "That's a once in 1,000 year event"  Only to have the events happen a few more times in the past 10-15 years.  The Global Warming Events are real!

 

Hearts and prayers go out to Waverly, TN and its residents because I do believe that was a Global Warming Event!

 

Remember warmer days and especially warmer nights allow the atmosphere to hold onto more water hence wild swings in weather events, get ready more wild events on the way!

Great Post!

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

All the progs indicated last year was supposed to be promising and it sucked.  Everybody is expecting this winter to suck so I'm going to invoke Bob Farrell's rule of investing:

When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen

 

Look for this winter to produce.  

 

I don’t think last year sucked by any standard 

[CAPE]

We just can't know yet.

One thing I do know- I am getting sick of the incessant tropical humid airmasses lately. I will be leaving for a cooler climo late next week and will return for the last week of September. It will probably still be warm and humid as eff.

[EastCoast NPZ]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We just can't know yet.

One thing I do know- I am getting sick of the incessant tropical humid airmasses lately. I will be leaving for a cooler climo late next week and will return for the last week of September. It will probably still be warm and humid as eff.

Don't sell it short.  It will still be hot and humid when you return.