CAPE Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 4 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Siberian October snowpack, solar mins, sunspots, the Farmers Almanac, wooly bear caterpillars, wildfire smoke, Jebman apocalypse, La Niña, tripoles, and aliens… We just don’t know. Throw in a volcanic eruption or 2.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 9 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Siberian October snowpack, solar mins, sunspots, the Farmers Almanac, wooly bear caterpillars, wildfire smoke, Jebman apocalypse, La Niña, tripoles, and aliens… We just don’t know. 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Throw in a volcanic eruption or 2.. The angle of the cold may not be good enough though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: The angle of the cold may not be good enough though Unfortunately the dumb angle is always a problem. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 On 7/21/2021 at 12:29 AM, Maestrobjwa said: There's one problem with this...last winter was one year after the solar minimum. And lo and behold...we did indeed get our high lat blocking with the -AO/-NAO (isn't that what the whole theory with the minimum is about?) The problem is it didn't do any good!! It’s never that simple. There are so many brilliant minds in this field and yet long range seasonal forecasting has extremely low predictive success rates. Because there are so many moving parts and conflicting signals to factor. It’s possible we wasted our solar cycle shot last winter. That wouldn’t surprise me. But it’s also possible last winter was just the start of an overdue longer period of high latitude blocking. The winter of 2009 had some decent blocking that did us no good. So did 2011. From 2009-2013 actually featured a pretty favorable high lat much of the time but it really only paid off much in 2010. Going further back 1977-1980 featured quite a bit of blocking following a period before of relatively little help up top. And it didn’t always work out wrt snowfall for various reasons but we certainly did cash in at times during that longer window. We can only hope that last winter the trend up top flipped and we have more luck with future -AO periods. For the record the blocking in 2009 was muted by the pac in much the same way as last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Nice to see 540s show up in Central Quebec on the long range GFS... That's the first sign of things to come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 I’m looking forward to the opening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said: I’m looking forward to the opening Don’t think it’s happening. The reaper is hiding in someone’s cabinets during renovations somewhere. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 8 hours ago, peribonca said: Nice to see 540s show up in Central Quebec on the long range GFS... That's the first sign of things to come Yeah, it’ll show up for a week here in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 On 7/24/2021 at 2:01 PM, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately the dumb angle is always a problem. Don't forget the angle of the moon. Nothing worse than temps rising at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 This is interesting.. I wonder if we are setting trend for Winter. Analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 nothing? PDO is like -4. La Nina is a face. Atlantic storms 20+ IS A slight NAO sigal, but correlated with -PNA/+EPO . It snows in the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: nothing? PDO is like -4. La Nina is a face. Atlantic storms 20+ IS A slight NAO sigal, but correlated with -PNA/+EPO . It snows in the Winter. I was with you all the way until the last part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 10 hours ago, Cobalt said: I was with you all the way until the last part. Really? You were? I sent the post to the NSA cryptology department for deciphering. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 I'm with WinterWxLuvr, I need someone to translate what all that stuff from Chuck means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Sure, why not. https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20 "Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Sure, why not. https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20 "Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!" We don’t really care about ENSO at this point right? I think it’s kind of overrated anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Sure, why not. https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20 "Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!" I mean he has a good point. Let’s just all be hopeful until that theory crumbles. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Sure, why not. https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20 "Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!" But again, though...the solar minimum was in late 2019, correct? We're past the lag time! And again...last winter's -AO/-NAO I thought was the result of the minimum...just that we couldn't do anything with it. And even if this year ends up being the actual solar min. benefit, how is that gonna happen with a la nina? And, both 02/03 and 09/10 also happened to be El Ninos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Scraff said: I mean he has a good point. Let’s just all be hopeful until that theory crumbles. Lol. It may have already crumbled last winter...lol Well maybe not crumbled, since we did have the -AO/-NAO...it just may not work anymore, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 On 7/26/2021 at 7:09 PM, Prestige Worldwide said: I’m looking forward to the opening On 7/26/2021 at 8:43 PM, Rhino16 said: Don’t think it’s happening. The reaper is hiding in someone’s cabinets during renovations somewhere. Yeah, sorry guys. I’m retired. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Aug 14 analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 N. Atlantic is great -NAO signal.. Weak La Nina coming. I like 95-96, but there are no Alberta Clippers, pattern is north 100-150 miles. (Actually 95-96 wasn't a La Nina in the subsurface, it was Neutral, 92-93 and 93-94 were El Nino in the subsurface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 Bring it home for us, chuck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Bring it home for us, chuck. I would ideally love to see Arctic ice melt to 2.4 or something, so that we can have some good Canadian reaching storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh That's a good question. I think normal SSTs are normal North/South Hemisphere across during El Nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 A lot of -NAO's in August lately.. 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019.. not necessarily -NAO Winter time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 On 8/5/2021 at 1:40 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, sorry guys. I’m retired. Darn, I never had a chance to meet/greet the senior unattached Aunts in the room. As always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh I’m a believer that neutral is the best for the types of winter that I want. From -0.5 to 0.5. More consistently wintry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 On 8/4/2021 at 11:30 AM, psurulz said: I'm with WinterWxLuvr, I need someone to translate what all that stuff from Chuck means? It’s simple…if the angular vector of the tropospheric velocity is in conjunction with the stratospheric vertical thickness values than the QBO is likely to synchronize with the PDO and the hemispheric energies are low because the solar flux is unstable. It snows in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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