Winter 2021-22

[Maestrobjwa]

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. This area has the dullest weather.

Eh...I wouldn't say the dullest. Imo we are just in the middle enough to make things interesting, lol But when it comes to snow...I think it's just gonna be a tempering down of expectations from pre-2017...a lot of great hits kinda spoiled us!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I would guess a Pac jet on steroids blasting into N. America would likely be antithetical to clippers.

I guess the thing to watch now...is if this feature is permanent. Not sure how many winters in a row we need to see it before we make that determination, though...because if it's becomes permanent...are analogs kinda out the window? Lol

[CAPE]

Might as well monitor the QBO, another index whose teleconnections to important stuff like HL blocking is nebulous at best. The experts tell us that when it trends negative heading into Fall and winter good things can happen. So, it went negative in June. Trend, friend.

QBO @ 30 mb

2021  10.19   8.92   9.75   5.25   0.31  -6.93

[mattie g]

You people talking as if we (admin most of us on here) have any chance at a respectable winter anymore.

[GATECH]

15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You people talking as if we (admin most of us on here) have any chance at a respectable winter anymore.

There’s always a chance! I am only chasing Knickerbocker+ storms at this point.  Given the crazy climate, it’s totally possible!  I am content in what I have experienced in my lifetime, some epic Denver storms in the 80’s and early 90’s, epic DC nor’easters 2009-10 and 2016, 1993 in Atlanta, four feet in Yosemite during thanksgiving 2019…been a a good run.  I appreciate whatever we get at this point!  What I do not want to see is a cat 5 up the bay…cat 2/3 fine 

[clskinsfan]

One thing that became clear to me over the past couple of winters is that Enso means absolutely nothing for our area anymore. You guys simply got unlucky to the east last year. It was a respectable winter west of the fall line. 

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

One thing that became clear to me over the past couple of winters is that Enso means absolutely nothing for our area anymore. You guys simply got unlucky to the east last year. It was a respectable winter west of the fall line. 

So if we can't look at enso...ya wonder how even somewhat accurate winter forecasting even a month out can be, lol (not to mention analogs)

[WinterWxLuvr]

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So if we can't look at enso...ya wonder how even somewhat accurate winter forecasting even a month out can be, lol (not to mention analogs)

It’s completely and utterly impossible. When long range forecasts are correct it’s luck IMO. 
 

You wanna do the “higher chances” style of long range forecast, then ok. To be able to definitively forecast long range? Forget it

[PrinceFrederickWx]

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

Not a single temp in the teens here last winter, even with snow on the ground and perfect radiational cooling conditions. Cant recall that happening in recent memory. The only legit cold air that made in deep into the US last winter went west of us, and we got the stale moderating air from that that produced the sleety/icy period.

Same here, I haven’t seen temps below the 20’s at any point in at least the last two winters, even with snow/ice cover. 
 

Idk why but the Pacific runs the show in the winter now, it’s like nothing else matters.

 

[CAPE]

15 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Same here, I haven’t seen temps below the 20’s at any point in at least the last two winters, even with snow/ice cover. 
 

Idk why but the Pacific runs the show in the winter now, it’s like nothing else matters.

 

Since the sun and it's heat input is the ultimate driver of the earth's climate, it makes sense to look to the tropics. We know the SSTs in the tropical Pacific (ENSO state) historically has major impacts on jet stream position and strength particularly during winter with larger air temperature differences, but there seem to be other factors at play recently. Hadley cell expansion is one possibility.

[CAPE]

CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Quote

8 July 2021

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. However, the latest forecast model runs from the NCEP CFSv2, many of the models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, and some models from our international partners indicate the onset of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall, continuing into winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus favors these model ensembles, while also noting the historical tendency for a second winter of La Niña to follow the first. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer and into the fall (51% chance for the August-October season), with La Niña potentially emerging during the September-November season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (66% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 7/6/2021 at 9:04 PM, mattie g said:

You people talking as if we (admin most of us on here) have any chance at a respectable winter anymore.

Outside of a lucky few who have elevation, we really don't do well with winter here anymore.

[psuhoffman]

Imo the expansion of the Hadley Cell in the PAC which subsequently leads to the PAC ridge and tight gradient in the north Pac (in other words the pac puke jet effect) is the dominant winter pattern driver v enso. What’s depressing is we got the best possible high lat pattern to try to offset that last year and it really didn’t do much good south of 40 unless you had elevation. 

[Mr. Kevin]

I have two questions. Do you expect the Hadley cell to be expansive again this winter or is it too early to tell? Also, will we need to see just as good as a hlb type setup this winter as last to even have a remote chance? Keep in mind the laniña was moderate last winter and we did manage to get a few shots of cold air, especially west of the apps.

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I have two questions. Do you expect the Hadley cell to be expansive again this winter or is it too early to tell? Also, will we need to see just as good as a hlb type setup this winter as last to even have a remote chance? Keep in mind the laniña was moderate last winter and we did manage to get a few shots of cold air, especially west of the apps.

Hadley cell expansion (poleward) is more of a gradual process related to increasing temperatures. The specifics are beyond my pay grade as a weather enthusiast.

[MillvilleWx]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hadley cell expansion (poleward) is more of a gradual process related to increasing temperatures. The specifics are beyond my pay grade as a weather enthusiast.

 

7 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I have two questions. Do you expect the Hadley cell to be expansive again this winter or is it too early to tell? Also, will we need to see just as good as a hlb type setup this winter as last to even have a remote chance? Keep in mind the laniña was moderate last winter and we did manage to get a few shots of cold air, especially west of the apps.

Hadley cell expansion has been ongoing for the past 50+ years as confirmed by temp and precip data across the sub-tropical regions globally. An expansion would cause a slight poleward shift in the arid environments typically located around 30 deg N and S by a few degrees. This puts an expansion in the desert climates, and larger scale meridional patterns we see in the Mid-Latitudes to be further enhanced due to increased movement of tropical air poleward. This would likely allow for greater precip fields further north, but also a slightly warmer advection of air due to the increasing meridional component of the trough/ridge patterns present between 30-60N or S. Basically, an expansion will lead to more volatility in the undulating upper air patterns, warmer temps to move poleward, and increased baroclinicity due to the basic longwave feedback mechanisms that take shape in our neck of the woods. The earth is just trying to do what it needs to do to remain in balance! 

[psuhoffman]

15 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I have two questions. Do you expect the Hadley cell to be expansive again this winter or is it too early to tell? Also, will we need to see just as good as a hlb type setup this winter as last to even have a remote chance? Keep in mind the laniña was moderate last winter and we did manage to get a few shots of cold air, especially west of the apps.

The last few years the pac ridge has been dominant. Longer term that will likely continue to be more and more common given the effects of climate change. But what we don’t know is if the last few years was also a shorter term cyclical thing and there will be some reversion to the previous mean. 

[SnowenOutThere]

This thread is already so depressing, someone should start a panic room.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This thread is already so depressing, someone should start a panic room.

There is a 95% chance DC will see an inch of snow this winter.

Need confirmation on that from Weather Will though.

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is a 95% chance DC will see an inch of snow this winter.

Need confirmation on that from Weather Will though.

The mean looks like 1.75

[StormchaserChuck!]

It's going to be quite warm-above average. I did a study last year that showed the -AO of 2 Winter's was so extreme, last Winter had to break it by at least 70% (-0.70), and that happened. Now it has to snap back to make it a perfect 3/4. (0.60-0.65). (A La Nina watch was issued by the CDC today.) My N. Atlantic NAO index which goes May-Sept is -0.80 so far, pointing to a -NAO, last Winter I was impressed because it came it negative, and that broke 32 straight months of +, but I have a feeling the index will go closer to neutral this year for it's total time of May-Sept.

[StormchaserChuck!]

A La Nina seems to be going into effect, or negative-ENSO. It certainly feels not-El Nino. 

[yoda]

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

There is a 95% chance DC will see an inch of snow this winter.

Need confirmation on that from Weather Will though.

Bet this will be the year we get snow on December 5th... the forum gets excited... then we get slapped back to reality

[StormchaserChuck!]

It's not going to be a La Nina official, so we'll see something like this in the Pacific

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It's not going to be a La Nina official, so we'll see something like this in the Pacific

That reminds me of a Calvin and Hobbes cartoon 

[Rhino16]

10 hours ago, yoda said:

Bet this will be the year we get snow on December 5th... the forum gets excited... then we get slapped back to reality

No no no... Richmond gets slammed and NoVA gets missed. It will be one of those  events.

[ldub23]

JB will always  be  optimistic.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

No no no... Richmond gets slammed and NoVA gets missed. It will be one of those  events.

Hey at least short pump won’t get fringed.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Hey, why all the negativity and depression in here??

I mean, we got tons of cicadas this year, can't complain!

We do cicadas well.

And wind.

And uncomfortable heat/humidity.

And apparently earthquakes.

But I guess we do suck at snow!

[Stormfly]

We do OK at snow.  Too much of a good thing isn't good!

Cicadas are so regional.  You can be overwhelmed and a block down the street nothing.

Earthquakes, maybe if you live to be 150 and even the 5.8 in 2011 if you were driving you wouldn't have felt it.

Wind, OK really depends on location but how often do we get warnings that verify?

Humidity?  Yes definitely!

Don't forget fireflies.  We get them here especially in the pine forest.  At dusk it's magical.  It's funny my nephew who is in the Army came and visited on the 4th of July with his wife.  They live outside of Seattle and she finally asked what us what those twinkling lights were!