Winter 2021-22

[Ji]

how is looking? i saw tweet. could be an early start to  winter?

 

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1412435670317076482/photo/1

[CAPE]

Disaster

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Disaster

lol at least we are not in the reddest anomoly

[Ji]

im just gonna roll with this

[CAPE]

The only thing worth discussing at this juncture is ENSO. Looking like neutral or weak Nina is favored. Ofc ENSO state doesn't seem to matter much lately, wrt our sensible weather in winter.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just expect a disaster and be happy with what you get. 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The only thing worth discussing at this juncture is ENSO. Looking like neutral or weak Nina is favored. Ofc ENSO state doesn't seem to matter much lately, wrt our sensible weather in winter.

yea so enso wont be driving winter. We just need some blocking like last year and well see what happens

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thread Counter — 001

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea so enso wont be driving winter. We just need some blocking like last year and well see what happens

It's the Pac firehouse that is primarily driving lately. Barely any cold in our source region when we needed it, despite a predominately favorable AO/NAO last winter.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's the Pac firehouse that is primarily driving lately. Barely any cold in our source region when we needed it, despite a predominately favorable AO/NAO last winter.

we were cold enough for quite a bit of snow last year..we just got unlucky

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just expect a disaster and be happy with what you get. 

Listen we may have to learn to be content with a few inches. I'm not sure we can get bigger snow anymore, tbh. Last winter...some good scenery snow that was beautiful to look at. If we can't get bigger snows I think I can take that as a consolation prize (I guess, lol)

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea so enso wont be driving winter. We just need some blocking like last year and well see what happens

But the blocking last year didn't do any good...did it?

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's the Pac firehouse that is primarily driving lately. Barely any cold in our source region when we needed it, despite a predominately favorable AO/NAO last winter.

And we haven't been able to shake that since 2016 have we?

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But the blocking last year didn't do any good...did it?

i mean some people on this board got 40-50 inches of snow. I had alot of all frozen events...the problem was the temps at 850mb-950mb but we certaintly had our chances for a big winter. That would of not been the case without blocking

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we were cold enough for quite a bit of snow last year..we just got unlucky

Even when it snowed or I got sleet/zr here temps were marginal. Not a single temp in the teens here last winter, even with snow on the ground and perfect radiational cooling conditions. Cant recall that happening in recent memory. The only legit cold air that made in deep into the US last winter went west of us, and we got the stale moderating air from that that produced the sleety/icy period.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But the blocking last year didn't do any good...did it?

It did some good- 12" of snow here, (or even there where you are) is perfectly respectable these days. But typically with the AO persistently negative as it was, we have a mechanism for delivery of Arctic air. Canada was so anomalously warm though due to modification from the Pacific.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean some people on this board got 40-50 inches of snow. I had alot of all frozen events...the problem was the temps at 850mb-950mb but we certaintly had our chances for a big winter. That would of not been the case without blocking

lol more like one.

unless you count Jonjon, and out there none of this stuff matters much. He will see 100"+ regardless.

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean some people on this board got 40-50 inches of snow. I had alot of all frozen events...the problem was the temps at 850mb-950mb but we certaintly had our chances for a big winter. That would of not been the case without blocking

I do agree with this. Everything else evolving the same way without the -AO/NAO, and it would have been a disaster.

We did get unlucky with the SWE/PV disruption when the blocking shifted and the TPV lobes dug further west. That was the one time we could have had legit cold here, and instead we sat under an upper ridge with warm air aloft, while Houston froze.

[WinterWxLuvr]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's the Pac firehouse that is primarily driving lately. Barely any cold in our source region when we needed it, despite a predominately favorable AO/NAO last winter.

That would argue, again, that the Pacific is the primary factor to consider.

[CAPE]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

That would argue, again, that the Pacific is the primary factor to consider.

Considering it is directly upstream, it always is a major factor. Wrt last winter, pretty easy to just say a Nina will typically not be kind to the MA with more NS dominance and weak or non existent STJ. A N shifting/stronger Pac jet, if that ends up being more of a fixture in winter going forward, may tend to modify ENSO impacts(especially weak events) and other indices that are historically correlated to cold/snow in the DC area, such as the AO phase. 

[IronTy]

I'm sniffing out an analog to 1958.  Lock it in.  

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Considering it is directly upstream, it always is a major factor. Wrt last winter, pretty easy to just say a Nina will typically not be kind to the MA with more NS dominance and weak or non existent STJ. A N shifting/stronger Pac jet, if that ends up being more of a fixture in winter going forward, may tend to modify ENSO impacts(especially weak events) and other indices that are historically correlated to cold/snow in the DC area, such as the AO phase. 

Dang...that scenario makes ya go *gulp*...Because that might mean, and correct me if I'm being overly simplistic, that we need a legit, moderate-strong El Niño to get good snow (and we only get those what...once maybe twice a decade?)

OR...is there another scenario where such pac modification would actually help?

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Considering it is directly upstream, it always is a major factor. Wrt last winter, pretty easy to just say a Nina will typically not be kind to the MA with more NS dominance and weak or non existent STJ. A N shifting/stronger Pac jet, if that ends up being more of a fixture in winter going forward, may tend to modify ENSO impacts(especially weak events) and other indices that are historically correlated to cold/snow in the DC area, such as the AO phase. 

Anytime I see discussions on the importance of the AO/NAO, it is always centered on snowfall. I think Wes’ chart was for 4 inch snowfall. I agree that blocking there has a strong correlation to heavy snowfall events, but I would think the winters of 2012-2013 through 2014-2015 show that a great pacific really can overcome the lack of Atlantic blocking. It all depends on what you are looking for. I prefer the consistent cold and regular snow chances over big storms. So I’d prefer a jet that walks off Canada and keeps cold nearby. Heck even cutters can produce in that setup.

As to your comment about potential changes to what we normally expect in certain setups, I’d love to hear thoughts on what has happened to clippers and why. Those used to be such a winter fixture and now they seemingly don’t exist.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang...that scenario makes ya go *gulp*...Because that might mean, and correct me if I'm being overly simplistic, that we need a legit, moderate-strong El Niño to get good snow (and we only get those what...once maybe twice a decade?)

OR...is there another scenario where such pac modification would actually help?

Depends on your definition of good snow. Again, the period 2012-2015 had plenty of good snow and cold.

I thought you moved to Florida? Never say never I guess but I don’t think there is any setup that will produce there lol

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang...that scenario makes ya go *gulp*...Because that might mean, and correct me if I'm being overly simplistic, that we need a legit, moderate-strong El Niño to get good snow (and we only get those what...once maybe twice a decade?)

We don't necessarily want a strong Nino (or Nina) here. We got lucky in 2016 with a 7-10 day moderately cold period and the odd blocking event that set up. Otherwise that would have been remembered as a wall to wall warm and mostly snowless winter.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anytime I see discussions on the importance of the AO/NAO, it is always centered on snowfall. I think Wes’ chart was for 4 inch snowfall. I agree that blocking there has a strong correlation to heavy snowfall events, but I would think the winters of 2012-2013 through 2014-2015 show that a great pacific really can overcome the lack of Atlantic blocking. It all depends on what you are looking for. I prefer the consistent cold and regular snow chances over big storms. So I’d prefer a jet that walks off Canada and keeps cold nearby. Heck even cutters can produce in that setup.

As to your comment about potential changes to what we normally expect in certain setups, I’d love to hear thoughts on what has happened to clippers and why. Those used to be such a winter fixture and now they seemingly don’t exist.

 

If iirc, a -AO is primarily correlated to colder winters (for DC), with -EPO being the next best option. For snowfall, have to look at ENSO state (and other factors) in conjunction with what's going on in the high latitudes. 

Not sure on the clipper thing- we had our share of those type systems in 2013-14 (and maybe the following winter) with the EPO ridge, I think?

I would guess a Pac jet on steroids blasting into N. America would likely be antithetical to clippers.

[Maestrobjwa]

57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Depends on your definition of good snow. Again, the period 2012-2015 had plenty of good snow and cold.

I thought you moved to Florida? Never say never I guess but I don’t think there is any setup that will produce there lol

Ohhhh no you must be thinking of somebody else--not in a million years would a move down there, lol

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Listen we may have to learn to be content with a few inches. I'm not sure we can get bigger snow anymore, tbh. Last winter...some good scenery snow that was beautiful to look at. If we can't get bigger snows I think I can take that as a consolation prize (I guess, lol)

Agreed. This area has the dullest weather.

[Stormfly]

A few decent nor easters please.  It can be rain just want the strong northeast wind, aka a whole gale out of the northeast as the oletimers say!

This last winter was OK.  Enough snow to keep things covered over for over a MONTH here and not enough requiring a skidsteer to clear.  I'm fine with that. I do need a 40' extension for the snow rake to keep the solar panels clear though.

Just no ice as in an inch of ZR.  That's the WORST.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

 

I would guess a Pac jet on steroids blasting into N. America would likely be antithetical to clippers.

That actually makes sense.