weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Have to assess that radar further but it's possible that could have been a gustnado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 MLCAPE is really struggling to increase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowdy2x Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: No way there was a tor in Windsor... It looked all straight line.... I don't know. Signature on radar and a wall cloud spotted from Broadbrook would suggest it's possible something came down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, Rowdy2x said: I don't know. Signature on radar and a wall cloud spotted from Broadbrook would suggest it's possible something came down. In nws chat yesterday Ryan brought it up. One of the other nws employees seemed to agree it looked like lobe contamination. I dont doubt the wind, I doubt whether it was spinning or a micro/straight line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Have to assess that radar further but it's possible that could have been a gustnado Gustnado lol. We all know what it really was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: SW NH looks interesting Hinsdale Helicity? If it's looking good maybe I'll drive up WaWa and check out the anvils while they move in. I think they let you drive up until like 8 PM no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 As of 1700z, MLCAPE remains below 500 J for the majority of the region, although effective shear has slightly increased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 mid-level lapse rates are a little poopy right now but should steepen somewhat over the next several hours and MLCAPE should jump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 didn't look at any soundings but the spc mesoanalysis shows >1000 j/kg mucape over most of SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 We've also mixed out dews some which is hurting the building of MLCAPE. Actually looks like there is a pocket of some lower dewpoint air in the llvls but looks like we do increase slightly later this afternoon. Also appears that there is a very diffuse boundary very near the CT/MA border. Maybe we do see two rounds of action today...one in a very small corridor from MA Pike to CT/MA border and then a second round later moving SW to NE across CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: We've also mixed out dews some which is hurting the building of MLCAPE. Actually looks like there is a pocket of some lower dewpoint air in the llvls but looks like we do increase slightly later this afternoon. Also appears that there is a very diffuse boundary very near the CT/MA border. Maybe we do see two rounds of action today...one in a very small corridor from MA Pike to CT/MA border and then a second round later moving SW to NE across CT. Any chance these maintain themselves or become elevated for the overnight Wiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Any chance these maintain themselves or become elevated for the overnight Wiz? Remains fairly unstable aloft through the night so I would anticipate we see showers and thunderstorms (elevated) through the overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: didn't look at any soundings but the spc mesoanalysis shows >1000 j/kg mucape over most of SNE MLCAPE is paltry though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: MLCAPE is paltry though Yeah, still bumping up though. looks better across WNE again today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Difflock Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 stuff poppin up on the radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Difflock said: stuff poppin up on the radar Pop it like it’s hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) Tweeted: 12:51pm CDT #SPC_MD 1180 , #mawx #riwx #nhwx #ctwx #nywx #vtwx #njwx #pawx, https://t.co/n3c7f9PFn5 https://t.co/ZpnitioH9m https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1412831606780223493?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 The difference between the GFS/NAM tomorrow in some of these Northeast locations is insane...typically the NAM tends to overdo the clouds but the NAM is HOT in the warm sector...also noting it does have NBM support. Anyways...if the NAM is correct tomorrow with alot of its output there is going to be a quite a bit of severe weather with at least a few tornadoes tomorrow. Does this extend much into SNE...I'm not sure but I definitely would watch into SW CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 91/73 here with unadulterated sun all morning and afternoon, and now we trigger down the Mohawk ( near/W of ALB ) ...? But convection is fickle...yesterday did just fine - although the total kinematic profile may have been different. I like mid lvl lapse rates in my candy but...SPC does mention positive shear values; sometimes we can swap out ingredients and come up with the same cake 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Maybe we can a super cell to rotated along that front/SRH boundary that's 20 mi N of rt 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe we can a super cell to rotated along that front/SRH boundary that's 20 mi N of rt 2 you and I can hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 watch issued, can't find the disc though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 High probability of severe wind in the new watch Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Low (10%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Low (5%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (<5%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (90%) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: you and I can hope RT 2 was excluded - ha... course that happens by design Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: RT 2 was excluded - ha... course that happens by design it's actually cutting-edge technology, they built a storm repellant into the road 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 NAM looks like it had the right idea again with the HRRR losing . Storms firing in ENY. Should congeal into several lines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Looks like it's go time folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Leaving Branford and going to meet my friend in Enfield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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