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Severe Weather Thread - New England


TalcottWx
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30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Come on down to the great town of raynham.

I may look in that area too. Will be interesting. May ultimately move to a place like interior CT near Southbury where my fiance is from if I could get a job at NBC Connecticut or something 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I think there was some side lobe contamination there. The data looked a bit noisy.

I actually wondered about that at the time, but was convinced by the fact that reflectivity started to show a cyclonic curving hook-ish look to the cell right after the couplet showed up. Admittedly that coulda just been coincidence, I suppose...

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44 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

That stuff fell with surgical precision.  Piled nicely and neatly for the homeowner.  I won't lie, the entire time I wanted the wheelbarrow to flip over.

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17 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

I actually wondered about that at the time, but was convinced by the fact that reflectivity started to show a cyclonic curving hook-ish look to the cell right after the couplet showed up. Admittedly that coulda just been coincidence, I suppose...

Yeah I actually went back and looked at it just now and I think those are spurious outbounds. The damage is about 2 miles north of where that "couplet" was too. 

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NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) Tweeted:
7:45am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Slight Risk: parts of the south atlantic coast, southern great lakes to southern new england, montana, black hills https://t.co/GtEvHQ3UxE https://t.co/LENNPbXvZk https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1412755194161504256?s=20

Upgraded to slight as anticipated

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6 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

 

NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) Tweeted:
7:45am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Slight Risk: parts of the south atlantic coast, southern great lakes to southern new england, montana, black hills https://t.co/GtEvHQ3UxE https://t.co/LENNPbXvZk https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1412755194161504256?s=20

Upgraded to slight as anticipated

It's rare to get back-to-back severe risk scenarios in our region.  It is what it is - if the set up is there, which this is, ... I think it is interesting that being rare as it is, this is the second time this season that this has successfully become so.  Two days of it -

 

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The problem is that being where we are in relation to the perennial hemispheric base-line circulation, we tend to more aggressive returns into the deeper trough passages, with the westerlies smashed farther W-S.   

Out in the Plains ...granted more so S than N, both have a tendency to shallower trough passages with the westerlies and attending warm frontal/bookend cool boundaries able to roll back sometimes within the same diurnal cycle.

This year's strange.  We have height variances locally ( ORD-BOS-NS ) oscillating more so between a shallower variance.. particularly in the non-hydrostatic heights, this can be seen.  576 to 588 ...save for last weeks weird two day trough plunge - but I suspect/maintain that was actually a fluke down stream of a Pac NWS 1:200 years oddity - which given CC may mean we've gone over a threshold where that has a much quicker return rate than 1:200 ..but that's a digression for a different time.

Anyway, the shallower transition between warm and cool episodes ...stretched more longitudinal, is lengthening the stay in these sequences/lead-side convection scenarios.  Interesting.

 

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10 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

What was up with the winds late last night? Heard them around 1am and ended up having a good sized limb come down, took out some of the tomato plants in our garden and snapped a wall of our raised bed, 

Hypothesizing ? Perhaps a pulsed restoration of the synoptic barometric pressure.

The convection from BAF to N NJ last suppressed the environmental/synoptic WSW wind considerable. In fact, when that was percolating SW of here ( N-central Mass) our winds went dead from 4pm to about 7 .. Then, we had some modest gusting kick up for an hour before night fall, but sooner rather than later decoupled and that returned us to a calmer state again.

I suspect as the last of the activity decayed SE and diminished/exited seawards, the flow 'hooked' back around and came through as a bit of 'isallobaric' pulse.

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I think it's going to be a pretty interesting period between 6-11 tonight. I am not very confident in how widespread convection will be but I think we'll see some marginal supercell structures. Would like to see a bit more shear but I think there is room for a brief tornado this evening across northern CT

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