weatherwiz Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Just do what is needed to get storms into CT and Central MA to RI plesse We may see some heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms move across the state but don't think we really see much else...in fact, they may weaken considerable as they move across the state. Everything outruns the better forcing and dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 MVL spiked to 79/68 with some sunshine... nothing like that up at 1,500ft under thick mountain cloud ceiling but maybe a sign of some instability if the valley can punch near 80F with any sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Looks like I’m in a pretty good spot today. Might take a drive over towards Manchester/Derry NH later if I’m done with work in time. That area could be nice, they typically get it good around there. Then again the seacoast is nice for the unrestricted views... Mesoscale Discussion 1754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Areas affected...portions of MA...NH and ME Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151559Z - 151800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and some hail will be the main hazards. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing ahead of a cold front near the Canadian border at midday. Stronger heating across southern New England to the south/west of a surface warm front has allowed for more rapid destabilization compared to much of ME, which remains under heavy stratus. As the upper trough shifts northeast through the afternoon, and the cold front slowly advances east/southeast, the warm front will lift northeast across ME. This will allow surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to near 70 F to overspread much of New England, and MLCAPE is forecast to increase to around 500-1500 J/kg by mid-afternoon. Strong vertical shear is already in place over the region, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt evident in regional VWP data. Deep-layer southwesterly flow parallel to the surface front will support mainly lines/bowing segments with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard expected through this evening. However, southerly near-surface winds will contribute to somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. Rich boundary-layer moisture also will support stronger 0-3 km instability from southern portions of VT/NH into far southern ME/northern MA. A tornado or two could occur across this area, especially if any more discrete cellular activity can persist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Really interesting VAD wind hodograph from ENX. That sickle look in the lowest km is well known for tornadoes (indicates a sharp turning of winds in the low levels). Now this is using SCH as an approximation for surface winds, so caveats there. But if this is something close to reality a few TORs issued today seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Really interesting VAD wind hodograph from ENX. That sickle look in the lowest km is well known for tornadoes (indicates a sharp turning of winds in the low levels). Now this is using SCH as an approximation for surface winds, so caveats there. But if this is something close to reality a few TORs issued today seems reasonable. We issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 72/66, Looks like were starting to shed the stratus overhead, Skies are getting bright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 79/70 Plenty of sun through the cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 did NOAA take the day off? lol....i can't see my local forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Looks like I’m in a pretty good spot today. Might take a drive over towards Manchester/Derry NH later if I’m done with work in time. That area could be nice, they typically get it good around there. Then again the seacoast is nice for the unrestricted views... Mesoscale Discussion 1754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Areas affected...portions of MA...NH and ME Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151559Z - 151800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and some hail will be the main hazards. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing ahead of a cold front near the Canadian border at midday. Stronger heating across southern New England to the south/west of a surface warm front has allowed for more rapid destabilization compared to much of ME, which remains under heavy stratus. As the upper trough shifts northeast through the afternoon, and the cold front slowly advances east/southeast, the warm front will lift northeast across ME. This will allow surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to near 70 F to overspread much of New England, and MLCAPE is forecast to increase to around 500-1500 J/kg by mid-afternoon. Strong vertical shear is already in place over the region, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt evident in regional VWP data. Deep-layer southwesterly flow parallel to the surface front will support mainly lines/bowing segments with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard expected through this evening. However, southerly near-surface winds will contribute to somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. Rich boundary-layer moisture also will support stronger 0-3 km instability from southern portions of VT/NH into far southern ME/northern MA. A tornado or two could occur across this area, especially if any more discrete cellular activity can persist. 80/69 here near MHT. Sun's out, guns out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 160 direction at Albany, like what Chris showed. That's a nice direction at the surface for spinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Watches issued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 I'm very interested in the cells from Saratoga to Rutland. Especially the one near Rutland. Great shape to it and the ZDR/KDP separation angle is nearly perpendicular. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 The one heading towards rutvegas went severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 That cell south of saratoga spring looks healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Seems models overestimated dews in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 PC, 75/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Seems models overestimated dews in NNE Only called for 60 dews here so that looks on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Solid data agreement for some good storms later on. The observations: sun is out, seeing dew points in the low-mid 70s on wunderground stations, and a decent west wind. Most robust predictor, at 7am this morning my wife said "It's muggy, can you close the windows and set the A/C?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Just got destroyed at the ski area. Trees down. Velocity data showing some 50+ mph downburst on the east slope. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: 72/66, Looks like were starting to shed the stratus overhead, Skies are getting bright. 77/72. Let's get some severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just got destroyed at the ski area. Trees down. Velocity data showing some 50+ mph downburst on the east slope. Looks like a complete blowdown 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDSOR COUNTY... This cell looks like it will just miss us to the east. At 224 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Quechee, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to trees and powerlines. Locations impacted include... White River Junction, Woodstock, Hartland Four Corners, Woodstock Village, Hartland, Hartford, Quechee, Pomfret, Norwich, Queechee State Park, Taftsville, North Hartland Dam Recreation Area, West Woodstock, South Pomfret, South Woodstock, Pompanoosuc and North Hartland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: Only called for 60 dews here so that looks on. Saw 70s on 3k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 My Phil corridor looking good. Tickled Stowe in nrn end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like a complete blowdown 52mph on an Ambient wx station in the base area. No idea the accuracy but it felt it. Was torrential rain but then in the middle of the rain just this pulse of high wind moved through that lasted maybe 20 seconds or so. Might have been the best storm I’ve seen this summer just for that 20 second pulse of wind in the downpour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My Phil corridor looking good. Tickled Stowe in nrn end. Yeah, I was doubting this morning but caught a pocket of Phil… thing blew up coming over the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah, I was doubting this morning but caught a pocket of Phil… thing blew up coming over the mountain. Phil ‘ll be blowin up over the mountain when he comes…. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 The severe threat gets how Far East before we lose heating of the day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Phil coming for Loon mtn. He's targeting all ski areas. Shut em down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Areas affected...portions of northern NJ...southern NY...CT...and MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151904Z - 152100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across parts of far northern NJ/southern NY into MA. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of increasing severe potential exists from far northern NJ into MA ahead of ongoing strong/severe convection further to the north/northwest. This corridor has experienced strong heating today, with temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 80s amid 65-70 F dewpoints, yielding MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. Visible satellite shows a broad area of agitated CU, with stronger vertical development across parts of southern NY/northern NJ as well as near the MA/VT/NH border. Stronger ascent will remain north of the area, so it is unclear if any storms will develop ahead of the slowly east/northeastward moving bands of convection further to the northwest. However, a southeastward-advancing outflow boundary is noted from Delaware to Rensselaer Counties in southeast NY and may provide enough focus for additional development across/moving into the MCD area. Vertical shear does decrease with southward extent across New England, but effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kts is more than sufficient to maintain organized cells/clusters in a moderately unstable airmass. As such, a severe threat could spread south of WW 501 and WW 502 in the next couple of hours and a new watch may be needed. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/15/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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