Severe Weather Thread - New England

[Cyclone-68]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't expect much at all. If anything they may fire again to the south near EML and LLJ. 7/10 split here perhaps.

Oh well.. I’ll guess I’ll print out copies of the ten day 0Z GFS and use it as new wall paper 

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It also appear all the best ingredients become a bit displaced as the day goes on. The best (llvl shear) moves out through the early afternoon and the best ulvl dynamics remain well west while the sfc cold front looks to plug east. Convective coverage too may be a bit of a question. I think we'll see some significant localized severe but would it be enough to warrant or "verify" an enhanced? 

Especially SNE it looks like the cold front undercuts the convection. Gradually it seems the HRRR wants to keep shear/cold pool balanced up across NNE, and actually a little nastier across ME than previous forecasts. Still a little skeptical because of the clouds.

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Especially SNE it looks like the cold front undercuts the convection. Gradually it seems the HRRR wants to keep shear/cold pool balanced up across NNE, and actually a little nastier across ME than previous forecasts. Still a little skeptical because of the clouds.

Yeah clouds may really kill things up that way...much better down this way in terms of the cloud department but really not much for convection down here. Better instability will be displaced from the better dynamics/forcing. 

[OceanStWx]

1030 am MCD. 

 

[weatherwiz]

Looks like just a really narrow corridor for severe potential should a line materialize. DCAPE is pretty good within the area of the MCD but it's not like llvl flow is very strong and llvl lapse rates are quite poor (though should steepen locally where stronger heating occurs). 

[dendrite]

Getting some breaks in CON. 

[weatherwiz]

I haven't been storm chasing in like 3 years...sucks. And I mean like real chasing...waking up and like 6 AM and driving out to like New York or Pennsylvania and setting up shop. I don't count my trips to BDL because well I live 2 minutes from there. I mean there was that time a month or so ago my friend and I went deep into Massachusetts. I've been wanting to go to the Plains now that I have excess vacation time but...THEY DON'T GET SEVERE WEATHER ANYMORE 

[Cyclone-68]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I haven't been storm chasing in like 3 years...sucks. And I mean like real chasing...waking up and like 6 AM and driving out to like New York or Pennsylvania and setting up shop. I don't count my trips to BDL because well I live 2 minutes from there. I mean there was that time a month or so ago my friend and I went deep into Massachusetts. I've been wanting to go to the Plains now that I have excess vacation time but...THEY DON'T GET SEVERE WEATHER ANYMORE 

If the last few seasons is any indicator you should simply rent out a beach house on the mid cape. Seems that’s where all the action is going 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

If the last few seasons is any indicator you should simply rent out a beach house on the mid cape. Seems that’s where all the action is going 

The last decade has been rather intriguing regarding severe weather, both locally and nationally. It's very difficult, however, to draw any type of conclusions because the dataset regarding severe weather is not only small but the degree of accuracy is even smaller. What we have seen this past decade is;

1. "Tornado Ally" has shifted a bit east...for so many years the Great Plains were considered the tornado home of the U.S. but last decade there has been a sharp increase just along/east of the Mississippi River to the Appalachian Mountains. 

2. A decrease in strong/violent tornadoes (obviously there have been some monsters) 

3. An increase in "out of season" tornadoes across the Northeast region and even nocturnal tornadoes...but thankfully the majority of these tornadoes have remained weak (of course we have some exceptions). 

But if we continue to see these themes of higher dewpoint air and higher dewpoint air occurring earlier in the season and later in the season we will continue to see an increase in these "out of season" setups. 

[Newman]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The last decade has been rather intriguing regarding severe weather, both locally and nationally. It's very difficult, however, to draw any type of conclusions because the dataset regarding severe weather is not only small but the degree of accuracy is even smaller. What we have seen this past decade is;

1. "Tornado Ally" has shifted a bit east...for so many years the Great Plains were considered the tornado home of the U.S. but last decade there has been a sharp increase just along/east of the Mississippi River to the Appalachian Mountains. 

2. A decrease in strong/violent tornadoes (obviously there have been some monsters) 

3. An increase in "out of season" tornadoes across the Northeast region and even nocturnal tornadoes...but thankfully the majority of these tornadoes have remained weak (of course we have some exceptions). 

But if we continue to see these themes of higher dewpoint air and higher dewpoint air occurring earlier in the season and later in the season we will continue to see an increase in these "out of season" setups. 

Regarding #2, remember that our EF scale is dependent on damage assessment. Is there any chance infrastructure has improved enough to cause this "decrease" in strong tornadoes? Or is there something else going on? Just a thought that came to mind. I chased the Mullica Hill NJ tornado two weeks ago, saw the damage up close and in-person, and was almost certain the NWS would've classified it as an EF4 but alas they didn't (only EF3). Is there any literature or data you can send me that supports your 2nd statement?

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The last decade has been rather intriguing regarding severe weather, both locally and nationally. It's very difficult, however, to draw any type of conclusions because the dataset regarding severe weather is not only small but the degree of accuracy is even smaller. What we have seen this past decade is;

1. "Tornado Ally" has shifted a bit east...for so many years the Great Plains were considered the tornado home of the U.S. but last decade there has been a sharp increase just along/east of the Mississippi River to the Appalachian Mountains. 

2. A decrease in strong/violent tornadoes (obviously there have been some monsters) 

3. An increase in "out of season" tornadoes across the Northeast region and even nocturnal tornadoes...but thankfully the majority of these tornadoes have remained weak (of course we have some exceptions). 

But if we continue to see these themes of higher dewpoint air and higher dewpoint air occurring earlier in the season and later in the season we will continue to see an increase in these "out of season" setups. 

Could be a lot of reasons for this. Small sample size altering perception, more rigorous surveying, etc.

As you say, I do think a lot of the rest of it can be explained by higher dewpoints and/or nocturnal temps. 

[Damage In Tolland]

59 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

1030 am MCD. 

 

Let’s slide that ESE tonight!

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s slide that ESE tonight!

Straining to hear thunder over the hum of the AC units.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Straining to hear thunder over the hum of the AC units.

Can you believe the ACATT’s uninstalled?

Your mast check in was July 20th. You on wagon?

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, Newman said:

Regarding #2, remember that our EF scale is dependent on damage assessment. Is there any chance infrastructure has improved enough to cause this "decrease" in strong tornadoes? Or is there something else going on? Just a thought that came to mind. I chased the Mullica Hill NJ tornado two weeks ago, saw the damage up close and in-person, and was almost certain the NWS would've classified it as an EF4 but alas they didn't (only EF3). Is there any literature or data you can send me that supports your 2nd statement?

That is certainly a great point and another piece which certainly needs to be considered. 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

We talked it over with SPC this morning and agreed that holding off on enhanced is the best decision right now. There are a lot of ingredients in place for damage™ but there is also a lot of low cloud cover and it's late in the season to mix that out quickly. RAP soundings have things mixing out by 15-16z which gives us another chance to take a look before the 1630z update.

Was just about to chime in that its pretty tough to get severe in the Northeast when the sun doesn't come out. Been overcast all morning here.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can you believe the ACATT’s uninstalled?

Your mast check in was July 20th. You on wagon?

Jumped on the wine wagon before I headed to Italy.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Jumped on the wine wagon before I headed to Italy.

Just awful to hear 

[Cyclone-68]

You can borrow our sun down here. We’re not going to be needing it for anything today anyway 

[moneypitmike]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s slide that ESE tonight!

Right on the heels of the derecho.

[OceanStWx]

Subtle, but quite a few METARs are showing backing winds ahead of the front. Hudson Valley looks pretty primed at the moment.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

You can borrow our sun down here. We’re not going to be needing it for anything today anyway 

It's probably a low chance, but possible some cells fire a bit this evening as the front sags south and encounters the LLJ with decent mid level lapse rates. 

[weatherwiz]

Already looks like the sfc front is pretty much nearing the line of TCU/showers across NY/PA...not a very good sign 

[Cyclone-68]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's probably a low chance, but possible some cells fire a bit this evening as the front sags south and encounters the LLJ with decent mid level lapse rates. 

Really That’s all I want. Doesn’t have to be spectacular. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Right on the heels of the derecho.

You forecast it and it didn’t pan out. Gotta move on 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Subtle, but quite a few METARs are showing backing winds ahead of the front. Hudson Valley looks pretty primed at the moment.

3km CAPE is quite impressive already and looks like CIN eroding rather quickly. I think the best severe potential is well east of where the watch currently is. I see the new MCD out...kinda shocked it doesnt indicate TOR watch possible given the environment. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

3km CAPE is quite impressive already and looks like CIN eroding rather quickly. I think the best severe potential is well east of where the watch currently is. I see the new MCD out...kinda shocked it doesnt indicate TOR watch possible given the environment. 

I think if forecast low level winds weren't quite as parallel to the boundary they would be considering it. Going to need some of these sections of the line to really bow out to have a QLCS tornado threat.

[weatherwiz]

@Damage In Tolland for the confused face...

referring to not a good sign for severe weather within that extensive watch area across NY/PA. I think the real severe threat is going to best east of that watch. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

@Damage In Tolland for the confused face...

referring to not a good sign for severe weather within that extensive watch area across NY/PA. I think the real severe threat is going to best east of that watch. 

Just do what is needed to get storms into CT and Central MA to RI plesse 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I think if forecast low level winds weren't quite as parallel to the boundary they would be considering it. Going to need some of these sections of the line to really bow out to have a QLCS tornado threat.

Yeah good point...and actually looking at potential storm motions that may hinder the TOR potential too. Winds only continue to veer too with height moving through the day