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Severe Weather Thread - New England


TalcottWx
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Flash Flood Warning
VTC003-025-020045-
/O.NEW.KALY.FF.W.0024.210801T2140Z-210802T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Albany NY
540 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Bennington County in southern Vermont...
  Northwestern Windham County in southern Vermont...

* Until 845 PM EDT.

* At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Stratton, West Wardsboro, Jamaica, Wardsboro, West Jamaica, Pikes
  Falls, Stratton Mountain, Stocker Acres, Stratton Valley, Stratton
  Acres, Rawsonville, Wardsboro Center, Winhall Station, East
  Jamaica, West Townshend, Kelley Stand and Townshend Dam.
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1 minute ago, klw said:
Flash Flood Warning
VTC003-025-020045-
/O.NEW.KALY.FF.W.0024.210801T2140Z-210802T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Albany NY
540 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Bennington County in southern Vermont...
  Northwestern Windham County in southern Vermont...

* Until 845 PM EDT.

* At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Stratton, West Wardsboro, Jamaica, Wardsboro, West Jamaica, Pikes
  Falls, Stratton Mountain, Stocker Acres, Stratton Valley, Stratton
  Acres, Rawsonville, Wardsboro Center, Winhall Station, East
  Jamaica, West Townshend, Kelley Stand and Townshend Dam.

How many bridges tonight?

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yes, there is water nearby. Its kind of setup to become a disaster with heavy rains. The road is pretty steep and is right along the western slope of the Greens . I attached a couple images below of the road, where the water intersects, and waterfall. At the top of the road where it ends is actually also a waterfall with a culvert that goes under the road and the water eventually meeting up with Bromley Brooke and the Battenkill. The terrain at the top of the road goes like straight up almost from there a couple thousand feet.

 So you have steep terrain with a waterfall and stream/brook flowing down the hillside and 5" in a few hours and you see what happened. It's a beautiful spot other then when a 10ft deep section of road is wiped out....

Screenshot_20210801-162446_Earth.thumb.jpg.1358c2c83efcfe81fe077b102d97190b.jpg

605431491_Screenshot_20210801-163332_USTopoMaps.thumb.jpg.82b6cd41759e72474bf55b316699acb8.jpgScreenshot_20210801-164132_Chrome.thumb.jpg.643def58082cdf447d8e40a2d35af5e6.jpg

Nice. Thanks for the explanation. I know the Battenkill. It almost Killed my dad canoeing. Not the smartest move in a flood. 

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48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Manchester VT area getting another 0.8-1.4" so far.  What a wet few days.

Took the dog out and we are 0.47" so far.  Best is by far south and east again.

.56” here so far. Still managed to get 9 holes in between 4:00 and 6:00. Just a little light rain/drizzle on the first couple of holes. 

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Where is Wiz ?   We keep getting 384 hr maps of EMLs for days from him and now here comes Thursday and he's on the bench with the scorebook again :facepalm:

 

 

 Depending on the model of
choice values range from generally 1000-2000 J/kg on the
conservative side of guidance of MLCAPE with the NAM being a bit of
an outlier with MLCAPE ranging from 1000-4000 J/kg with the highest
values in western portions of the CWA. On top of this will have an
EML moving in aloft on Thursday with mid level lapse rates between 6-
7 degrees Celsius per km and 7.5-8.5 degree Celsius low level lapse
rates. One thing that may help us in the severe risk is it doesn`t
look like things move in until late in the day.

 

 

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Here is the BTV AFD discussing Thursday:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Thursday still looks to be active day with the potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms. The main threats with these storms will be
gusty winds and heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flash
flooding. Plenty of instability will be available owing to the hot
and humid conditions, and CAPE values are progged to be in the 1500-
2500 J/kg range. Meanwhile, marginal deep layer shear is expected
with 0-6km bulk shear of 15-25 knots. The biggest limiting factors
will be the absence of large-scale lift and/or strong low-level
convergence. This means that convection will likely be initiated by
terrain-induced lift such as lake breeze convergence or orographic
ascent. However, once convection is initiated, storms should have no
problem continuing to develop given the favorable environment,
especially if there is an elevated mixed layer as indicated by GFS
forecast soundings. Heavy rainfall is expected where thunderstorms
develop with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2 inches. Meanwhile, warm clouds
depths should well exceed 10,000ft and storms are expected to be
slow moving. Therefore, localized flash flooding and ponding of
water is possible.

Otherwise, still expecting another day of oppressively hot and humid
conditions on Thursday with heat index values in the mid 90s to low
100s during the afternoon.
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