Cyclone-68 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: No derecho Oh well. We don’t need no fancy titles for thunderstorm fun anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Valid 271801Z - 271930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent areas will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract, the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line. Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts as these storms continue eastward. Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and northern CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 33 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Valid 271801Z - 271930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent areas will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract, the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line. Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts as these storms continue eastward. Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and northern CT. Damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Wizzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Damage Hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 I desire this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 That line looks awfully good out there . Wonder if we can bow it into a mini derecho in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 That line is absolutely hauling ass. Will be here in no time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Get those IPA's ready for a pre-game damage cell-ebration inebriation 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 I'm not totally sure how far east the severe threat will hold. There is more than enough dynamical support, however, instability is lacking due to poor mid-level lapse rates and low dewpoints. The wind threat is thriving off of dry low-level air (large Td) and steep low-level lapse rates. However, models do show some theta-e pooling which may increase dewpoints a bit through the remainder of the afternoon and we continue to have good dynamical support with decent height falls. There are also indications this line could form a cold pool somewhat steepening the lapse rates and bumping instability a bit. Not sure how far south in CT this gets though...may be more closer to the Pike or just south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Is this it for the night when that line rolls through? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 I like BRN’s 15-30 as a general rule of thumb for good chance of severe t-storm conditions. I 84 west up to southern NH away from the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 I'm intrigued because of the shear. Should get to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Meh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Moisture pooling now . Dew here up to 70.1. Things should explode into W MA and NW CT SS line hits instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Moisture pooling now . Dew here up to 70.1. Things should explode into W MA and NW CT SS line hits instability Your dewpoint is 70??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Your dewpoint is 70??? Yup. We pool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. We pool Wow. BDL dropped to 58 last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I like it. I’m on vacation. Hope you get leveled. Timing is sort of meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: Wow. BDL dropped to 58 last hour Valley FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: Wow. BDL dropped to 58 last hour Yeah his dew will lower 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m on vacation. Hope you get leveled. Timing is sort of meh. Anywhere good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 the mesos handled this terribly today. Haven't looked at them since earlier. Will do in a bit to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Couple beasts in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Couple beasts in MA Another Burptown Mauler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Celticsfan874 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Waiting to see if/when this line of storms will impact Northern Plymouth County MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Storms looking better!! Fun times ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Couple beasts in MA I’m sitting in the line in NW MA. Some decent gusts but not much thunder. Torrential rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m sitting in the line in NW MA. Some decent gusts but not much thunder. Torrential rain though. We need it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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