OceanStWx Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: looks like a nice cell. Right along the fly over or airplane or w/e that section of Rt 9 is called. That was my first thought too, right on the Airline so maybe somebody was woken up by ice cubes on their skylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Could see a few strong storms later tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Could see a few strong storms later tomorrow 12z HRRR has a beast of a supercell crossing northern NH tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: 12z HRRR has a beast of a supercell crossing northern NH tomorrow. The HRRR loves those supercells But there definitely could be some enhanced shear right along the boundary up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Low-ish dewpoints tomorrow one of the biggest inhibitor in what actually could be a pretty decent day for severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Low-ish dewpoints tomorrow one of the biggest inhibitor in what actually could be a pretty decent day for severe Are you a bit surprised none of the area is outlooked for severe tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Are you a bit surprised none of the area is outlooked for severe tomorrow? Not really because guidance hasn't really looked impressive enough but 12z guidance has come in a bit better so I would think we see a marginal with the 1730z update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Not really because guidance hasn't really looked impressive enough but 12z guidance has come in a bit better so I would think we see a marginal with the 1730z update. Yeah it doesn't look too impressive, but the s/w and wind field are somewhat respectable anyway. Hopefully modeled dews are a bit low because there's some upside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Looks like some storms heading toward northern VT in a little bit, nothing severe from the looks of it. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Isolated/scattered thunderstorms have developed over southern Ontario and Quebec this afternoon in response to a cold front moving southward through the area. This activity will slowly drift southward as well, moving across the St Lawrence Valley through the afternoon and eventually pushing eastward across the remainder of northern NY into VT late this evening. With steep low level lapse rates, some of the more robust cells could produce locally gusty winds as they pass through, particularly in the St Lawrence Valley owing to the more optimal time of day. Further east, the convection will move through after peak heating and while thunder will be possible, gusty winds will not be as likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 From GYX afternoon AFD: A glace to the Northwest shows what`s to come. The thickest portion of the haze ends at the St. Lawrence valley and just behind it convection is beginning to fire ahead of another short wave/cold front just starting to drop into southern Quebec. Timing out this boundary, we`ve still got most of the afternoon to go in the hot haze before any of the convection can reach the US/Canada border, which should occur around sunset. This morning`s sounding out of Maniwaki shows a region of steep lapse rates around 700mb which should help to increase instability. That said, there is also quite a bit of dry air aloft. Overall it`s a marginal environment for severe storms, but some gusty winds can`t be ruled out in Northwestern Maine late this evening. Well behind the front we have much drier air moving in but we`ll need it to get here first. While the northern parts of NH and western Maine may see that benefit tonight the Maine coast will likely wait out almost until sunrise, and thus continued fog overnight along the midcoast is expected. .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday a second stronger short wave will push through the region. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to especially the southern Maine and NH south of the White mountains. Forecast soundings suggest some marginal severe storms are possible, with gusty winds being the main threat. Have kept a mention of gusty winds in for the highest PoP. Looks like another "leapfrog" front, that reaches our area too late then resumes next day to our south. We're a bit AN for rain this month but serious convection has been eaten by the cloudiness. Yesterday was cloudy day #14 this month, tying 2009 for the July max. Only 2 sunny days back then so 2009 will retain the cloudiest July title, but 2021 will easily take the silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 44 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah it doesn't look too impressive, but the s/w and wind field are somewhat respectable anyway. Hopefully modeled dews are a bit low because there's some upside If anything the lower dews could help support some wind damage potential due to a stronger T/Td depression...especially if llvl lapse rates remain quite steep even after sunset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 It’s a late show .. or is it early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a late show .. or is it early? 18z runs slowed timing by quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 18z runs slowed timing by quite a bit It’s an after midnite wild CG and wind show for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Storms here now breaking our dry spell at 34 hours 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, klw said: Storms here now breaking our dry spell at 34 hours Congrats. Watching that from a distance from here in Bradford. Not nearly as organized as the one up here yesterday, but yeah its a thunderstorm, I'm sure you'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 good boomers so far and another on the way. The last one had my heaviest rates of the season…6.47”/hr. Quick hitters though…only 0.31” so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 **** hail 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just had a flash-bang in the back woods. Gah. Mostly between peas and dimes, but they were smashing against the windows pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: **** hail Nice compact core there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 The chickens finally won one, although they probably had a heart attack with the hail bouncing off the metal roof of the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: The chickens finally won one, although they probably had a heart attack with the hail bouncing off the metal roof of the run. Awesome dude. Always good to get the goods. Jackpot… a class act, easy to root for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Awesome dude. Always good to get the goods. Jackpot… a class act, easy to root for. The chickens are classy. I whine and melt with the best of them. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 HRRR looks nice for later today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 lfg ...NY/New England... Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday over parts of western NY and/or adjoining ON, along and south of the front. Activity should increase in coverage and move mostly eastward across central/eastern portions of NY and south-central New England through the afternoon, its movement aligned with an instability gradient and boundary-layer moist axis. Damaging to locally severe wind gusts will be the main concern. Confidence has increased that enough large-scale lift (related to the MCV) and diurnal low-level destabilization will occur to support maintenance of the threat eastward into New England. The 15% wind area has been extended accordingly. Surface dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F will be common in the preconvective environment across the region, with minimal MLCINH. Accordingly modified RAOBs and forecast soundings suggest that -- despite weak midlevel lapse rates -- MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg will develop (locally/briefly higher), atop a reasonably well-mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates. A roughly unidirectional deep-layer wind profile is expected, with effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range. Given the weak capping and progressive regime of ascent preceding the MCV, some cold-pool aggregation may occur in upscale growth of convection, enabling forward propagation to impinge on the destabilized boundary layer, potentially as far east as the MA and perhaps NH coastlines given the westerly flow that can advect favorable boundary-layer theta-e that far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Hopefully tonight will be so fun that NOVA will have a special about it in a few years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 whatever develops is gonna be haulin' ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: whatever develops is gonna be haulin' ass Meaning wind damage galore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 If that complex moving into NY develops as predicted, could that potentially qualify as a derecho later on for areas affected? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: If that complex moving into NY develops as predicted, could that potentially qualify as a derecho later on for areas affected? No derecho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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