CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Did you notice the upgrade to slight risk Wiz? Locally I’m not crazy about the south and east trend Scott mentioned It's too early to say though. I just saw a couple of runs on the hi res and was like....I've seen this before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, kdxken said: This smoke is great! Makes it truly feel like summer. I love coughing while I work. Everybody does is they get older. Only wish the dew points were higher so the actual Ash would stick to my skin. Reminds me of the polluted hazy and hot days of the 80s. You had it look just like this. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Soundings have sfc winds at BDL already NW by the morning with a NW flow through 5k...actually you can see small capping layers too. God damn it...this is BS. Of course this crap would happen. We actually get decent lapse rates and everything else goes to shit. I also don't like how the pre-frontal is oriented. What a waste. We better get an EML coming up with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 I fly outta Logan at 345pm tomorrow, Should be some boomers booming from there to Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Soundings have sfc winds at BDL already NW by the morning with a NW flow through 5k...actually you can see small capping layers too. God damn it...this is BS. Of course this crap would happen. We actually get decent lapse rates and everything else goes to shit. I also don't like how the pre-frontal is oriented. What a waste. We better get an EML coming up with that look. The storms overnight are it for SNE other than SE Ma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The storms overnight are it for SNE other than SE Ma That's not a lock overnight. SCT stuff and weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Found it thanks.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1319.htmlDISCUSSION...Associated with larger-scale mid/upper troughing digging in the St. Lawrence Valley/lower Great Lakes region, forcing for ascent with a lead speed maximum (30-50 kts in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be providing support for an ongoing, well organized cluster of thunderstorms across southeastern Ontario. Perhaps aided by an associated strengthening surface cold pool, this activity has accelerated some (up to 40 kt) over the past couple of hours, and may reach the Ottawa vicinity by around 19Z. Along trailing outflow into the vicinity of its intersection with a southward advancing cold front, additional thunderstorm development and intensification is now also well underway. Supported by moderate southeasterly low-level inflow of moist air characterized by CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, this seems likely to continue with the evolution of another upscale growing and organizing cluster/segment possible. This may begin impacting the Ontario shores of Lake Ontario into the Watertown vicinity as early as 20-21Z, perhaps a bit earlier and more substantively than suggested by the latest Rapid Refresh. Although low-level wind fields are generally weak, the effective downward mixing of higher momentum air aloft, associated with the well developed/maturing organized convective system and associated surface cold pools, probably will be accompanied by increasing potential for strong gusts at least approaching severe limits.I am ready for a derecho into southern Maine at 3 AM. Please make it happen @OceanStWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's not a lock overnight. SCT stuff and weakening. Most of the cams have a great CG line of storms from NW to SE to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most of the cams have a great CG line of storms from NW to SE to the coast Oh they display CG now. Cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Bagged 1 inch of rain at home in 15 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Oh they display CG now. Cool. You can tell by the big cape in place and then looking at the storms reflectivities as modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Tomorrow was always a south of pike day. Miss here but we'll watch and enjoy anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 We've got W or NW flow next week so maybe one properly timed s/w rounding the ridge will do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 WOAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 18z HRRR with an explosion of convection tomorrow!!!! embedded supercells for all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: WOAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 18z HRRR with an explosion of convection tomorrow!!!! embedded supercells for all. I’d love one overnight and again tomorrow but I don’t want to seem greedy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: WOAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 18z HRRR with an explosion of convection tomorrow!!!! embedded supercells for all. 18z NAM says no storms for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z NAM says no storms for you. I think the 3km NAM is trash anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 That’s a decent line entering N.NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 36 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s a decent line entering N.NY. You're in a good spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Bagged 1 inch of rain at home in 15 minutes. 12z 3km NAM was all over that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: You're in a good spot! Can already hear some rumbling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Time to flip some boats over on Champlain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Lots of thunder now. Looks good hitting the Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Lots of thunder now. Looks good hitting the Champlain Valley. Phil is ripping east to Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Is there a good enough chance of appreciable rain tomorrow for me to put some fertilizer down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 20, 2021 Author Share Posted July 20, 2021 So, the Cape is actually in slight risk tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is there a good enough chance of appreciable rain tomorrow for me to put some fertilizer down? Think it looks good there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: So, the Cape is actually in slight risk tomorrow? Probably better chance there vs Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Great wind on the front side… sub-severe though. I’d estimate 40-45mph gusts. Powers out in some parts of town but we still have it. Seemed the type of wind that drops white pines, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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