Severe Weather Thread - New England

[Cyclone-68]

We have a mesoscale discussion for most of the area anyway 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

In a way this cloud debris may actually *help* things a bit. Given the high dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates we actually are destabilizing quite nicely. This cloud debris though may actually keep the mixed-layer capped a bit longer...holding off convective development. Also, this was really more of a late afternoon/early evening show anyways. Judging by sat trends we will see strong heating and once we really crank that the MLCIN should erode without problem. The RAP is getting MLCAPE upwards of 2500 J/KG which is pretty significant around here. It just sucks the mid-level is so bad...I think that's really going to hurt storm organization and limit how mature convection can get. 

That'd be funny, too - like the same thing that usual screws us finds a weird idiosyncratic means to do the opposite.   Talks about turning chicken shit into chicken salad. 

But this situ has changed since we typed earlier - par for the convective course, as it's also a game of observation and now-headaching the ordeal.

The skies really opened up to just fractal cu and heat.  It's jumped from 76 to 86 here in the last 1.5 hours of this clearing arrival - I mentioned that in the July thread that this type of air mass was sort of spring loaded like that, and that 10 minutes of sun can bounce degrees.   Anyway, 90 is plausible despite losing dawn to 10 am in murk skies.  That changes the map a little as far in inhibition. 

TCU and glaciation is now evidence more in western NY but racing east along that axis we mentioned and even N of there a little.  I bet a we get a MD/ watch here

[Whineminster]

28 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

its all way south of us today.  next

Not for me, we'll get some.  All it takes is one CTG on a pine in your yard and it makes it best storm ever.

[weatherwiz]

Watch out

[ct_yankee]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Tomorrow actually looks better than today I think for severe and some hints at another weak EML (which there is one too just south of us today)

Interesting you say that about tomorrow being the better day, last night I almost posted to that effect... But I'm just not confident enough in my forecasting abilities, especially on this board with so many truly knowledgeable people, so I never hit the submit button. But yeah as of late last night I thought Wed could be the better day, although storms probably won't be as widespread as today - but that can be a good thing from a chasing perspective. I'll see how today plays out, then take another look at tomorrow. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ct_yankee said:

Interesting you say that about tomorrow being the better day, last night I almost posted to that effect... But I'm just not confident enough in my forecasting abilities, especially on this board with so many truly knowledgeable people, so I never hit the submit button. But yeah as of late last night I thought Wed could be the better day, although storms probably won't be as widespread as today - but that can be a good thing from a chasing perspective. I'll see how today plays out, then take another look at tomorrow. 

Don't be afraid to post! that's what this place is for. 

I am still torn on how today progresses (in the severe department). The CAPE is certainly quite impressive, especially the MLCAPE...values 2000-3000 J don't happen here all that often. We have the very steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE which really screams at wind damage potential...however, given the poor deep layer shear I think we're really going to struggle to organize convection enough and develop deep enough convection to really produce outside of some isolated/localized areas of damage. How NY fares with this activity will be telling for us. 

But I think tomorrow is looking better in terms of shear/instability combo

[kdxken]

Totally unscientific but it just has a feel today. Heard the first cicadas.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Not for me, we'll get some.  All it takes is one CTG on a pine in your yard and it makes it best storm ever.

Fine, I'm just saying the odds of getting anything good this far north are low.

[Henry's Weather]

Lifted index of -7 for the majority of SNE. Woof

[Cyclone-68]

Action really starting to percolate in E NY and northwestern MA

[Lava Rock]

nada here

[Henry's Weather]

Really juicy atmosphere is just wringing CGs from these garden-variety storms

[radarman]

seeing some low end *possibly* severe winds descending the east slope just n of rt 9.  The lack of u/l dynamics are evident in the relative unorganized nature of the cells.  But there is certainly a threat of branches down here and there.

[Henry's Weather]

Surprised this thread isn't jumping more, there are some juicy and electrical (albeit non severe) storms out there today

[Cyclone-68]

I know I’ll be an idiot for saying this later but looking at the lightning coverage alone makes me think we’re going to get SOMETHING later. Even if it’s sub severe 

[TalcottWx]

Not sure what the negativity nancy brigade has up their bums but I like the look for some boomers and isolated severe

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Totally unscientific but it just has a feel today. Heard the first cicadas.

totally agree, it’s just plain soupy out, although I’ll probably be on the outside looking in. and I am ok with that. and I also heard cicadas today as well.

[TalcottWx]

Some tree damage in athol and potential large hall in Petersham

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Athol is like schitts creek

[weatherwiz]

Leaving Branford now...going to go to BDL (since I live there anyways but I can stop at the airport)

[moneypitmike]

Upstream looks interesting-/hopefully things can hold together.

[TalcottWx]

Warning after warning right now. Triple bunning in the newsroom. 

[TalcottWx]

000

ACUS11 KWNS 062023

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 062023 

MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-062200-



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0323 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2021



AREAS AFFECTED...RI...MA...CT...NJ...SOUTHEAST NY...EASTERN

PA...NORTHERN DE...FAR NORTHEAST MD...SOUTHERN VT/NH



CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335...336...



VALID 062023Z - 062200Z



THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335, 336

CONTINUES.



SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE

REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 335 AND 336.



DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS WERE IN PROGRESS AT

2015Z FROM WESTERN MA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST PA, WITH REPORTS OF

MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE.  THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT

WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK WITH

MODERATE/STRONG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 850-700

MB LAYER.  DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD AS

STORMS MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.



FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WW 336, LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING

VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CUMULUS FIELD WITHIN A WEAKLY CONFLUENT

ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST PA, WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH

MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT

HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR, AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS

EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS POSING A RISK

FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Pop up passing just to my North lots of rumbles

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of bangs 

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Some tree damage in athol and potential large hall in Petersham

Can already hear the distant thunder from that here.  Looks like it may run a little north of me.

[Lava Rock]

congrats sne

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

congrats sne

basically nada here

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of bangs 

Congrats