WxWatcher007 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 52k top estimated on that cell west of CT. Very good CAPE out there for some bangers if those storms can keep pushing east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 52k top estimated on that cell west of CT. Very good CAPE out there for some bangers if those storms can keep pushing east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 52k top estimated on that cell west of CT. Very good CAPE out there for some bangers if those storms can keep pushing east. I just want some rain....I don't need severe, just some downpours please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: They’re already falling apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Tons of instability though, maybe an outflow boundary or what not can pop something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They’re already falling apart. Sea breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sea breeze I think it's more b/c of lack of wind shear. Pretty pulse type. Too little wind shear to get updraft/downdraft separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Yes... nothing to organize & sustain t-storms; these are pure pulse / air mass cells. Weakening is not related to any sea breeze influence; air feeding into the cluster is upper 80's with +70 dp. Would not be surprised by a sneaky outflow boundary or two allowing a couple of additional cells to pop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can’t say I’ve seen this before What the hell? Didn’t know that was possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Looks like we’re capped tomorrow and Friday. I can’t believe I’m saying this , but we need some rain. No rain so far in August and only .64 since July 17th. Lawns are starting to burn in places a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Looks like we’re capped tomorrow and Friday. I can’t believe I’m saying this , but we need some rain. No rain so far in August and only .64 since July 17th. Lawns are starting to burn in places a bit Glad we don’t live there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Seabreeze stable marine layer killed the storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Boom? . A number of convective permitting models simulate initial storms around early to mid afternoon across central NY, merging quickly into a line of storms with bowing segments depicted moving eastward into eastern NY, western and central MA into northern CT between ~22-02z (5-10 PM). Did coordinate with SPC and neighboring WFOs about raising the severe risk to Slight Risk/15% into our western and central counties and a more conditional Marginal risk to the eastern MA coast. While the most evident severe risk lies in NY, some will likely bleed over into Southern New England. Despite weak wind fields, this is a still a favorable parameter space for severe storms. It`s difficult to really message the scope of the risk given the uncertainties in the timing. While gusty to locally damaging winds and heavy rain are the main risks, given the depictions in the higher res models and the level of instability that is forecast, it is not out of the realm of possibility that corridors of enhanced wind damage could ensue into our western-central MA/CT counties, especially if storms develop earlier than anticipated. Pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Seabreeze stable marine layer killed the storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 3km Nam rips nasty storms from W/C Mass thru N CT late today/evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3km Nam rips nasty storms from W/C Mass thru N CT late today/evening stay safe, probably lame by the time it hits EMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Seabreeze stable marine layer killed the storms In these type of airmasses the seabreeze would actually help as they provide enough enhanced low-level convergence to spark convection. The only seabreezes kill convection is if the seabreeze has moved ahead of convection and if the airmass behind it is very stable. In these type of airmasses and this time of year the seabreeze isn't really going to act as a killer. Yesterday was a product of no forcing and no shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: stay safe, probably lame by the time it hits EMA It may not even materialize. Fair amount of CIN but that should erode as the afternoon progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 The problem is there is very little forcing. We are capped and Kevin is right...cap will erode through the afternoon as the convective temp is reached. Mesoscale features will help with storm development and maybe a cluster can organize. Despite the weak shear aloft any storms that do form will become quite intense briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 You can tell it’s late summer when a STW only gets a couple of posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 CIN is just about gone. Nice CU development. Let’s see what happens thru about 10:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 robability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A small severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for the areas east of an ongoing cluster near the VT/MA/NY border. This activity is expected to move to the I-95 corridor. Isolated strong to severe gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of storms near the VT/MA/NY border as of 345pm. This activity is located to the east of an eastward-moving MCV currently located over central NY. The Albany, NY ASOS recently observed a gust of 39 kt. The airmass over southern New England has warmed into the lower 90s with dewpoints generally in the lower 70s. It appears at least an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts will materialize east of severe thunderstorm watch 432. The overall coverage of damaging gusts is still in question but some risk appears to be increasing through the early evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Seems like congrats north of Pike? Was hoping something could trickle N CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like congrats north of Pike? Was hoping something could trickle N CT There's some storms forming further south near POU that should make their way into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like congrats north of Pike? Was hoping something could trickle N CT There is a nice CU filed to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There is a nice CU filed to our west We’re gonna need the W MA storms to build SE. That’s our chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We’re gonna need to W MA to build SE. starting to see some signs of that now. Hopefully some of that outflow will blast to the south and southeast and help initiate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: starting to see some signs of that now. Hopefully some of that outflow will blast to the south and southeast and help initiate It’s gonna have to happen soon . Otherwise 7/10 split to north and maybe HFD south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s gonna have to happen soon . Otherwise 7/10 split to north and maybe HFD south ? That's what will probably end up happening. Were some updrafts trying to get going but just not getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Nice looking storm in W MA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now