tamarack Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah Logan caught a decent gust but the data I saw looked isolated. I didn’t see a widespread issue from a geographical standpoint, but if it hits downtown everyone thinks the world ends. As you know, it's all about location. The storm that tore apart trees and crushed vehicles in Belgrade Village with gusts up to 90 (as per GYX investigators) produced little wind and 0.02" at my place 10 miles away. The same system wrecked part of a friend's woodlot 50 miles east in Dixmont while a former co-worker a mile or 2 away had meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like a Tor threat Thursday night. Night of the killer Tor’s? Maybe even a smokenado? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 May see some nice elevated storms tomorrow night. Don't see much in the way of severe potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: May see some nice elevated storms tomorrow night. Don't see much in the way of severe potential We were told tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: We were told tornadoes. Maybe a long-tracked tornado from Wisconsin later today can survive the journey into SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: May see some nice elevated storms tomorrow night. Don't see much in the way of severe potential SPC sure does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: SPC sure does Going to depend on instability but right now it appears the best instability is just to our south. Even elevated instability up this way isn't super impressive. The dynamics are certainly quite impressive which will help keep convection going. If anything, eastern Mass/Cape might be the best spot to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 May see that Slight risk area trimmed south (maybe even see the southern portion of the risk area expanded south a bit) and I think we see the marginal area trimmed well south with the 1730z update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: May see that Slight risk area trimmed south (maybe even see the southern portion of the risk area expanded south a bit) and I think we see the marginal area trimmed well south with the 1730z update It looks to me like they bring it north based on triple point continuing coming north on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It looks to me like they bring it north based on triple point continuing coming north on models We never truly warm sector. The dynamics are there to help with storm organization but we are really lacking instability...sufficient instability. It's really difficult for us to maintain nocturnal severe potential without the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates or steepening mid-level lapse rates aided by CAA in the mid-levels. Our temperatures tomorrow barely get to 80 and our dewpoints probably only into the lower 60's (if that) so we are not going to generate much instability and any instability will quickly wane after sunset. We are going to need to see a significant bump north to have any severe potential here...especially for any talk of TOR potential. BL seems way too stable for that potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We never truly warm sector. The dynamics are there to help with storm organization but we are really lacking instability...sufficient instability. It's really difficult for us to maintain nocturnal severe potential without the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates or steepening mid-level lapse rates aided by CAA in the mid-levels. Our temperatures tomorrow barely get to 80 and our dewpoints probably only into the lower 60's (if that) so we are not going to generate much instability and any instability will quickly wane after sunset. We are going to need to see a significant bump north to have any severe potential here...especially for any talk of TOR potential. BL seems way too stable for that potential here. You don’t need surface based instability for nocturnal or early AM spinner threats or low topped wind damage stuff. The warm front lifts to about I-90 by Fri morning but the storms form along that as it moves north. With the front, increasing dews and low level spin, coupled with warm waters.. all ingredients are there. I’d be leaning for them to move the threat north by tomorrow morning update . 3k Nam looks great . SNE threat is after dark tomorrow night into wee hours of Fri 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You don’t need surface based instability for nocturnal or early AM spinner threats or low topped wind damage stuff. The warm front lifts to about I-90 by Fri morning but the storms form along that as it moves north. With the front, increasing dews and low level spin, coupled with warm waters.. all ingredients are there. I’d be leaning for them to move the threat north by tomorrow morning update . 3k Nam looks great . SNE threat is after dark tomorrow night into wee hours of Fri You need sfc-based instability for any type of tornado threat. You don't necessarily need sfc-based instability for wind damage potential but you need llvl instability otherwise lack of instability can be more indicative of an inversion which limits downward transport. If we can get MUCAPE values > 1000-1500 J/KG and get decent CAPE in the hail growth zone the light show would be pretty great and there would be a risk for hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Admittedly night severe is rare in these parts and tornados even rarer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It looks to me like they bring it north based on triple point continuing coming north on models SLGT risk to the southwest of NYC... MRGL for CT/RI and SE MA in 1730 update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 43 minutes ago, yoda said: SLGT risk to the southwest of NYC... MRGL for CT/RI and SE MA in 1730 update Derecho in the midwest. Nighttime MCS possible here. Something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Once again not feeling great about my storm chances when I have to depend on a warm front moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 This is the stripe the Euro likes for the train 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 was supposed to be camping on the elbow of the Cape tomorrow night... was kind of hoping for the 7/10 split but thinking we just have to eat the site fee and bag it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, radarman said: was supposed to be camping on the elbow of the Cape tomorrow night... was kind of hoping for the 7/10 split but thinking we just have to eat the site fee and bag it. Considering how the cape has missed just about every rain event going back to last summer , you should go. Wagons will continue north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Looks like wagons south, though never really looked good for most of SNE. NYC/LI/S coast possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wagons will continue north 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Looks like wagons south not sure if this means wagons stay put, or 7/10 split remains in play 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, radarman said: not sure if this means wagons stay put, or 7/10 split remains in play HREF is a soaker into CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Looks like wagons south, though never really looked good for most of SNE. NYC/LI/S coast possibly My sense is that it all winds up south with the MCS coming out of the Great Lakes tonight. But given the time of year (warm SSTs) will have to watch that screaming LLJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: My sense is that it all winds up south with the MCS coming out of the Great Lakes tonight. But given the time of year (warm SSTs) will have to watch that screaming LLJ. Yeah, the past few days most of the models were driving that MCS activity way southwest of us, that's usually the kiss of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Very similar setup to this . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Tomorrow essentially going to evolve into a heavy stratoform rain with embedded thunder. Probably going to see some flash flooding. Severe threat is well SW of here 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Tomorrow essentially going to evolve into a heavy stratoform rain with embedded thunder. Probably going to see some flash flooding. Severe threat is well SW of here It’s tomorrow night and it’s to the Pike. We Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s tomorrow night and it’s to the Pike. We Ryan They always trend further north and east then the model show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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