Severe Weather Thread - New England

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

VT, NH, ME tonight has a big wind threat 

That line looks to weaken pretty quickly but I think we may even have a chance for something this evening...models keep big elevated CAPE down our way

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to see some pretty solid wind producers tomorrow. Any more discrete cells could also produce some large hail...maybe up to golf ball possible

BTV derecho?

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

BTV derecho?

we need one of those

[Cyclone-68]

58 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That line looks to weaken pretty quickly but I think we may even have a chance for something this evening...models keep big elevated CAPE down our way

How about MA Wiz? 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

How about MA Wiz? 

I think we should see some loud bangers traverse much of MA/CT late evening and overnight. 

[weatherwiz]

I'm kinda hoping smoke doesn't hurt things tomorrow. DAMN YOU SMOKE

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm kinda hoping smoke doesn't hurt things tomorrow. DAMN YOU SMOKE

It is impressive how much it cuts down on the insolation. My solar array is 72% of capacity despite no clouds.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It is impressive how much it cuts down on the insolation. My solar array is 72% of capacity despite no clouds.

CAPE Killa.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It is impressive how much it cuts down on the insolation. My solar array is 72% of capacity despite no clouds.

doesn't smoke also contribute to increased CIN (or is that just a result of the decreased solar insolation?)

[DavisStraight]

Its Weds, of course we're getting storms, this will be 4 weeks in a rows my golf league had storms to contend with.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

doesn't smoke also contribute to increased CIN (or is that just a result of the decreased solar insolation?)

It's complicated. It can cut down on heating and thus CAPE (alternatively doesn't erode CIN), but it can also warm layers of the atmosphere to cut down on lapse rates if the smoke layer is within the updraft zone. But then there is research that says that warmer temps in the updraft zone may lead to warmer RFDs and assist tornadogenesis. So like I said, complicated.

[Cyclone-68]

Is this the usual Canadian brush fire issue or is it coming from somewhere else?

Edit: thanks 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It's complicated. It can cut down on heating and thus CAPE (alternatively doesn't erode CIN), but it can also warm layers of the atmosphere to cut down on lapse rates if the smoke layer is within the updraft zone. But then there is research that says that warmer temps in the updraft zone may lead to warmer RFDs and assist tornadogenesis. So like I said, complicated.

Woah...that is super interesting. I'll have to read more on that. I can definitely see how it is complicated...if you're relying heavily on CAPE for convection well not good...but if CAPE isn't necessarily important you can probably get away with it. I remember back (I think) early 2000's we had some bigger convective potential events get squashed from smoke...I remember having forecast highs in the 90's and we barely got out of the lower 80's. But...I think too the smoke was literally even down to the sfc (it was from the wildfires in SE Canada).

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Woah...that is super interesting. I'll have to read more on that. I can definitely see how it is complicated...if you're relying heavily on CAPE for convection well not good...but if CAPE isn't necessarily important you can probably get away with it. I remember back (I think) early 2000's we had some bigger convective potential events get squashed from smoke...I remember having forecast highs in the 90's and we barely got out of the lower 80's. But...I think too the smoke was literally even down to the sfc (it was from the wildfires in SE Canada).

Honestly if anything temps are running warmer than the HRRR across New England as of 15z.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Honestly if anything temps are running warmer than the HRRR across New England as of 15z.

That's good!

Sometimes I am actually quite amazed at temperature responses even when you have an abundance of sky cover. I notice this quite a bit across the mid-west. You'll have some cities that are virtually cloudy all day and still somehow manage to get 3-4F above MOS/NBM. But then again...when you have the right airmass in place and sufficient mixing...it doesn't take much to ramp up the temps. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

It is impressive how much it cuts down on the insolation. My solar array is 72% of capacity despite no clouds.

Don't tell Kevin, particles only. 79 here gonna be tough to get to 85 90

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't tell Kevin, particles only. 79 here gonna be tough to get to 85 90

Was that that forecast? I honestly didn't look, but saw 2 m temp progs were generally low to mid 80s. 

I see MOS was quite warm for BDL.

[Cyclone-68]

Canadiens better not ruin our severe tomorrow 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Was that that forecast? I honestly didn't look, but saw 2 m temp progs were generally low to mid 80s. 

I see MOS was quite warm for BDL.

Yea but its still muggy as hell. Weird having full sun but not feeling that searing this time of day.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea but its still muggy as hell. Weird having full sun but not feeling that searing this time of day.

It's taking me back to college when we had to get Fortran to calculate the W/sq m based on certain conditions. Kind of cool to see it in action.

[klw]

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is this the usual Canadian brush fire issue or is it coming from somewhere else?

Edit: thanks 

Oregon and California are contributing as well.  Washington state too,

[klw]

Nasty looking line of storms coming through Quebec in this direction.

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Quebec-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Cyclone-68]

1 minute ago, klw said:

Nasty looking line of storms coming through Quebec in this direction.

Interesting mesoscale discussion just issued regarding that 

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Canadiens better not ruin our severe tomorrow 

Could be a day where you and I are waving to the storms in SE MA.

[weatherwiz]

We have to get an EML from this

[klw]

18 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Interesting mesoscale discussion just issued regarding that 

Found it thanks.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1319.html

DISCUSSION...Associated with larger-scale mid/upper troughing
   digging in the St. Lawrence Valley/lower Great Lakes region, forcing
   for ascent with a lead speed maximum (30-50 kts in the 500-300 mb
   layer) appears to be providing support for an ongoing, well
   organized cluster of thunderstorms across southeastern Ontario. 
   Perhaps aided by an associated strengthening surface cold pool, this
   activity has accelerated some (up to 40 kt) over the past couple of
   hours, and may reach the Ottawa vicinity by around 19Z.

   Along trailing outflow into the vicinity of its intersection with a
   southward advancing cold front, additional thunderstorm development
   and intensification is now also well underway.  Supported by
   moderate southeasterly low-level inflow of moist air characterized
   by CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, this seems likely to continue with the
   evolution of another upscale growing and organizing cluster/segment
   possible.  This may begin impacting the Ontario shores of Lake
   Ontario into the Watertown vicinity as early as 20-21Z, perhaps a
   bit earlier and more substantively than suggested by the latest
   Rapid Refresh.

   Although low-level wind fields are generally weak, the effective
   downward mixing of higher momentum air aloft, associated with the
   well developed/maturing organized convective system and associated
   surface cold pools, probably will be accompanied by increasing
   potential for strong gusts at least approaching severe limits.

[weatherwiz]

I am a little unsure actually of what to expect. Looks like we'll have a pre-frontal trough on our doorstep to start the day and sfc winds begin to become W to even more WNW. Thankfully it is rather moist aloft so we don't have to worry about mixing dews but that could heavily limit convergence. If sfc winds can be more SW that would be beneficial...could also increase tornado potential but LCL's and llvl shear are kinda high/weak. 

[Cyclone-68]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am a little unsure actually of what to expect. Looks like we'll have a pre-frontal trough on our doorstep to start the day and sfc winds begin to become W to even more WNW. Thankfully it is rather moist aloft so we don't have to worry about mixing dews but that could heavily limit convergence. If sfc winds can be more SW that would be beneficial...could also increase tornado potential but LCL's and llvl shear are kinda high/weak. 

Did you notice the upgrade to slight risk Wiz? Locally I’m not crazy about the south and east trend Scott mentioned 

[kdxken]

This smoke is great! Makes it truly feel like summer. I love coughing while I work. Everybody does as they get older. Only wish the dew points were higher so the actual Ash would stick to my skin.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Did you notice the upgrade to slight risk Wiz? Locally I’m not crazy about the south and east trend Scott mentioned 

I did see the Slight risk. The position of the pre-frontal trough is going to be pretty huge I'm guessing. But this could really be good for RI/SE MA looking closer.