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Summer 2021


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The cold ENSO years starting 2007 with very low sea ice (4.3 million square km or lower mins in Sept) have all been cold somewhere in the West in winter (2007-08, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2016-17. 2020-21) while the higher sea-ice cold ENSO years have not been (2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2017-18).

That's something I'm watching. Certainly worked here last year. Late Summer, July-September is pretty well correlated to how warm Nino 3.4 is in March-May. You would think we'd see a pretty different late Summer pattern from last year. I've actually been sold on a near average or cold August out here for a while for a few reasons - two near record hot Augusts in a row are unlikely to repeat with a third. More generally, this also looks like a more active East Pacific hurricane season than last year to me which can help crush heat in the Southwest in August.

Hot La Nina years in the Southwest tend to see late developing heat (90+ readings). So it didn't reach 90 until June here, which is late. But if the sea ice is low, that hasn't failed since 2007 as a "cold somewhere in the West" signal in the low ENSO years. Would be interesting to see those two stats locally go against each other. I'm also starting to wonder if the level of rain by the New Mexico & Texas border the past 60 days is enough to prevent a big high from settling in there for a while. I knew back in Spring May would be a decent month out here just because the November NAO (+) is highly correlated to wet Mays when positive, and so is the January WPO (+) - and both were extremely/record positive. The extreme drought for New Mexico has been been cut in half since 1/1 according to Uncle Sam. 

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The +NAO correlation for June to July actually looks a bit like the July 2021 temperature pattern so far. The 1959-60 winter looked like 2020-21 winter at times (Dec & Feb) and then occasionally matched in Spring. July has been decent as a match to 1960 too. I've been watching 1960 because it is a year following the similar weird "very cold Nino 4" + "somewhat negative NAO winter" + "very positive WPO winter" of 1959-60.

Screenshot-2021-07-16-5-30-48-PMScreenshot-2021-07-16-5-33-06-PM

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