SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

strengthens back to a TS over land moving at that speed?  I have my doubts on that.  

Enhanced by the incoming trough.  Similar to the Euro.

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

strengthens back to a TS over land moving at that speed?  I have my doubts on that.  

I was thinking that too.  Its over land for 700+ miles. 

[Intensewind002]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

strengthens back to a TS over land moving at that speed?  I have my doubts on that.  

Probably due to baroclinic forcing, I think. Kinda similar to Isaiah last year

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Intensewind002 said:

Probably due to baroclinic forcing, I think. Kinda similar to Isaiah last year

Yep

But this isn't going to be as strong as Isisas.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

But this isn't going to be as strong as Isisas.

Also moving NE vs straight north for Isias which brought the wind field over and east of NYC

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Also moving NE vs straight north for Isias which brought the wind field over and east of NYC

Yep

This will most likely be some gusts and heavy rain bands. 

[ForestHillWx]

Hauling azz as well. Limits the potential. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

Hauling azz as well. Limits the potential. 

yeah it's gone by mid morning Friday could see that moving up a few more hrs based on latest trends

[MJO812]

Rgem has a few inches of rain and strong winds for the coast. 

[stemwinder]

14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And there's another batch forming to the west 

Got over an inch from the last of that batch.  More today, perhaps?

Looking forward to Friday's possible rain.  I'm not a Grinch, but I love coastals in July, tropical or otherwise.

 

[MJO812]

Joe Bastardi

"interaction with non tropical feature will cause Elsa to pack Isaias like  punch in the NE and MA. s to se winds cause more tree damage than NW at same speed   2 reasons, 1) most strong NW gusts in winter,. 2. Trees lean SE ( especially pines) Better lift. Prepare for outages"

[crossbowftw3]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Joe Bastardi

"interaction with non tropical feature will cause Elsa to pack Isaias like  punch in the NE and MA. s to se winds cause more tree damage than NW at same speed   2 reasons, 1) most strong NW gusts in winter,. 2. Trees lean SE ( especially pines) Better lift. Prepare for outages"

Pretty nonsensical to just say that

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

Got over an inch from the last of that batch.  More today, perhaps?

Looking forward to Friday's possible rain.  I'm not a Grinch, but I love coastals in July, tropical or otherwise.

 

I think elsa mostly misses us with the best rains but we'll see

[MJO812]

Cmc

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think elsa mostly misses us with the best rains but we'll see

i think we're good for 2-4" with a sharp cutoff over western nj

[crossbowftw3]

Three day QPF..

[Snowlover11]

severe thunder storm watch inbound 

[IrishRob17]

 

[Brian5671]

euro is a quick hitter with Elsa-thurs-night friday AM 1-3 inches depending on locale

[IrishRob17]

 

[SRRTA22]

Im wondering if the HWRF is out to lunch with how far west Elsa gets. It scoots offshore in NJ but it would get far enough west where tornados and supercells would be a threat. Have to monitor

[SnoSki14]

If this pattern continues deep into summer we'll def see more tropical threats.

WAR keeps flexing its muscles.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If this pattern continues deep into summer we'll def see more tropical threats.

WAR keeps flexing its muscles.

Agree.    An an active year so far so no absence of threats.

[stemwinder]

3 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

severe thunder storm watch inbound 

Radar shows a line forming already near Stroudsburg PA. 

Edit) not amounting to anything an hour later, unlike yesterday.  Later perhaps?  

[stemwinder]

Tropical Storm Watch posted by Mt Holly for some parts of area.

 

[Brian5671]

18z NAM says what tropical storm rains?

-

[doncat]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM says what tropical storm rains?

-

3km....

[forkyfork]

the nam is god awful with TCs

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM says what tropical storm rains?

-

Check 3k nam

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check 3k nam

yeah looks more realistic.