SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021

[jets]

Talk about a lot of uncertainty on heaviest rain axis

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, jets said:

Talk about a lot of uncertainty on heaviest rain axis

Odds are it somehow ends up west and jackpots NJ like always seems to happen but hopefully it can nudge east a bit and hit everyone. Wind wise I don’t expect much. 

[Brian5671]

I've had close to 6 inches of rain here so far in July-if we get another 3-5 we'll be close to 10 on July 9th...crazy

[NJwx85]

15 minutes ago, jets said:

Talk about a lot of uncertainty on heaviest rain axis

Just remember that the rain shield is never as compact as what the high resolution models predict. Also, the system will be interacting with the jet which will help to both ventilate the system poleward and also fan the system out.

[NJwx85]

The 12z RGEM is slightly more tucked into the coast than the previous run. It's a compromise between the 06z and 12z 3k NAM. Brings the heaviest rains into NE NJ, far SE NY and LI.

[RippleEffect]

Hi good morning folks. I’m in west Hampton area and there’s a tropical storm warning here. How bad is this not really familiar with these terms? Should I evacuate?

[jets]

Hwrf model takes Elsa to n nj and jackpots e pa and w nj. We shall have a better idea in the next several hours. Feel the WAR will trend this baby west 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, jets said:

Hwrf model takes Elsa to n nj and jackpots e pa and w nj. We shall have a better idea in the next several hours. Feel the WAR will trend this baby west 

That's still the 06z run unless you have something newer. The track over the DE Bay would be similar to Isaias and would open the door for more severe weather. 

[psv88]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Odds are it somehow ends up west and jackpots NJ like always seems to happen but hopefully it can nudge east a bit and hit everyone. Wind wise I don’t expect much. 

We don’t need the rain…

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We don’t need the rain…

Since Jan 1 many of us still have a precip deficit that Elsa should bring enough to take out. 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Since Jan 1 many of us still have a precip deficit that Elsa should bring enough to take out. 

Yup still down a couple inches for the year. Could be wiped out and then some by Saturday.

[MJO812]

Rgem

[NJwx85]

19 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

Hi good morning folks. I’m in west Hampton area and there’s a tropical storm warning here. How bad is this not really familiar with these terms? Should I evacuate?

If the center tracks West of you, pretty good chance at low end tropical storm force winds, especially on the Southern shore of Suffolk. 

The 12z RGEM has some 40-50kt winds for the forks for a few hours but not expecting any impacts worse than your typical strong noreaster. 

Main thing besides the rain that we need to be concerned about is potential for rotating storms as the bands come in off the ocean.

[Snowlover11]

hudson valley is getting drenched on already, flash flood warning.

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Since Jan 1 many of us still have a precip deficit that Elsa should bring enough to take out. 

Does that really matter for us? The ground is soaked and the foliage is lush. More rain means more mosquitoes in August.

[NJwx85]

I like the GFS's idea of a general 2-4" of rain almost areawide. Of course, some areas will have the potential to see more if training occurs.

[bluewave]

Pretty good 12z agreement on the axis of heaviest rains right through NYC Metro.

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

[STORMANLI]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Does that really matter for us? The ground is soaked and the foliage is lush. More rain means more mosquitoes in August.

Hopefully that does not mean trees knocking down power lines.  Bad memories of 8 days no power from Isaias.

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Hopefully that does not mean trees knocking down power lines.  Bad memories of 8 days no power from Isaias.

This won’t be anywhere near as bad wind wise as Isaias. Elsa is a weak tropical storm and won’t spend anymore time over water before getting here. Even though it might get an assist from an incoming trough it won’t make it that much worse in terms of wind. The story here is the rain and even that shouldn’t be extreme. Could be a swath of 3-5” probably west of us. We more likely get 1-3” in banding. 

[NJwx85]

Pouring here in Ramsey and severe warned.

[WE GOT HIM]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Pouring here in Ramsey and severe warned.

post pic

[rgwp96]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Pouring here in Ramsey and severe warned.

Any hail ?

[MikeS]

We just had some wild weather roll through Wayne, up near the Oakland/Franklin Lakes border. Torrential downpour, consistent thunder & lightning, and even some hail for about 15-20 mins.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, rgwp96 said:

Any hail ?

Not here, looks like the heaviest part of the core went just to my South, more towards Saddle River. Now it's headed for Nyack and Westchester. Bit of a right mover.

[NJwx85]

Just now, MikeS said:

We just had some wild weather roll through Wayne, up near the Oakland/Franklin Lakes border. Torrential downpour, consistent thunder & lightening, and even some hail for about 15-20 mins.

Yup, that's the storm that just went to my South.

[NJwx85]

Elsa is hauling now. The edge of the steady rain is about to cross into Southeast Maryland. 

[rgwp96]

4 minutes ago, MikeS said:

We just had some wild weather roll through Wayne, up near the Oakland/Franklin Lakes border. Torrential downpour, consistent thunder & lightning, and even some hail for about 15-20 mins.

Yea drove  through that and  when I got home in butler hardly  anything . Missed it by 2 miles . Bloomingdale had flooded roadways 

[Newman]

That storm in Bergen/Rockland counties is warned for 2 inch hail

[WE GOT HIM]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

That storm in Bergen/Rockland counties is warned for 2 inch hail

Had triple hail signature before. Something you see in Texas. Weakening a bit now.