SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021

[nycwinter]

i think with today's rain included so far nyc central park had picked up  about 4.6 inches of rain this month so far.. if we get a good amount from elsa maybe the all time record amount in central park for july is in jeopardy, that record is from 1889..

[Gravity Wave]

15 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i think with today's rain included so far nyc central park had picked up  about 4.6 inches of rain this month so far.. if we get a good amount from elsa maybe the all time record amount in central park for july is in jeopardy, that record is from 1889..

1889 was a very wet year for many in the region. 

[Stormlover74]

 

[nycwinter]

24 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

1889 was a very wet year for many in the region. 

no kidding..

[uncle W]

Wettest...
11.89" in 1889
11.77" in 1975
_9.56" in 1897
_8.89" in 1928
_8.52" in 1880
_8.50" in 1919
_8.36" in 1997
_8.29" in 1960
_8.14" in 1988
_7.83" in 1872

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

That would be a big bust for those that got nothing today. Good thing it's not winter.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That would be a big bust for those that got nothing today. Good thing it's not winter.

Nam is wet but in a fairly narrow swath

 

[wdrag]

From OKX at 857PM:

Two 4"+ only today!!

 

UBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
857 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS OF RAINFALL OF 1.00 
INCH OR GREATER TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS FOR THE STORM
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS, COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, SKYWARN SPOTTERS 
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY ALSO IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION                     AMOUNT    TIME/DATE       PROVIDER             

...CONNECTICUT...

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
GREENWICH                    1.57 IN   0801 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
5.6 NE DANBURY               1.53 IN   0745 PM 07/08   HADS                 
ARMONK                       1.50 IN   0800 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
GREENWICH                    1.17 IN   0801 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
STAMFORD                     1.11 IN   0750 PM 07/08   AWS                  
DANBURY                      1.00 IN   0758 PM 07/08   CWOP                 

...NEW JERSEY...

...BERGEN COUNTY...
WALDWICK                     4.92 IN   0750 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
LODI                         4.56 IN   0745 PM 07/08   IFLOWS               
NEW MILFORD                  3.70 IN   0750 PM 07/08   AWS                  
PARK RIDGE                   3.64 IN   0800 PM 07/08   IFLOWS               
PARAMUS                      3.21 IN   0754 PM 07/08   AWS                  
HACKENSACK                   2.59 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
TETERBORO AIRPORT            2.37 IN   0751 PM 07/08   ASOS                 
RIVER VALE                   2.21 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
FAIR LAWN                    2.07 IN   0800 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
0.6 W OAKLAND                2.01 IN   0800 PM 07/08   HADS                 
0.6 SW HILLSDALE             1.88 IN   0715 PM 07/08   IFLOWS               
BOGOTA                       1.86 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
CRESSKILL                    1.50 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
1 SSE FRANKLIN LAKES         1.44 IN   0745 PM 07/08   IFLOWS               
HAWORTH                      1.35 IN   0750 PM 07/08   NJWXNET              
EMERSON                      1.30 IN   0730 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
OAKLAND                      1.30 IN   0755 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
OAKLAND                      1.27 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
OAKLAND                      1.25 IN   0800 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
OAKLAND                      1.15 IN   0756 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
LITTLE FERRY                 1.07 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
LEONIA                       1.04 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  

...ESSEX COUNTY...
0.6 SW CALDWELL              1.40 IN   0745 PM 07/08   IFLOWS               
MONTCLAIR                    1.14 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
WEST CALDWELL                1.04 IN   0755 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
FAIRFIELD                    1.03 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  

...HUDSON COUNTY...
HOBOKEN                      1.62 IN   0757 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
1 ENE JERSEY CITY            1.46 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
1 SW JERSEY CITY             1.43 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
WEEHAWKEN                    1.26 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
PASSAIC                      3.83 IN   0801 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
0.8 SE POMPTON LAKES         1.76 IN   0730 PM 07/08   HADS                 
CLIFTON                      1.66 IN   0750 PM 07/08   AWS                  
HAWTHORNE                    1.55 IN   0750 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
CLIFTON                      1.02 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  

...NEW YORK...

...BRONX COUNTY...
FORDHAM                      3.55 IN   0845 PM 07/08   NYSM
PELHAM PARKWAY HOUSES        2.73 IN   0800 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
HARLEM                       2.48 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  

...NASSAU COUNTY...
GREAT NECK                   1.64 IN   0755 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
LEVITTOWN                    1.17 IN   0750 PM 07/08   AWS                  
THOMASTON                    1.12 IN   0754 PM 07/08   AWS                  

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS           2.94 IN   0750 PM 07/08   AWS                  
CENTRAL PARK                 2.27 IN   0751 PM 07/08   ASOS                 
MIDTOWN MANHATTAN            1.79 IN   0755 PM 07/08   NYSM                 
MANHATTAN                    1.73 IN   0800 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
1 S MIDTOWN MANHATTAN        1.20 IN   0750 PM 07/08   URBANET              

...ORANGE COUNTY...
US MILITARY ACADEMY          1.44 IN   0755 PM 07/08   RAWS                 
WEST POINT                   1.15 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
NEWBURGH                     1.11 IN   0756 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
MONTGOMERY AIRPORT           1.04 IN   0754 PM 07/08   AWOS                 

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
BREWSTER                     1.53 IN   0755 PM 07/08   NYSM                 

...QUEENS COUNTY...
OAKLAND GARDENS              1.12 IN   0750 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
BELLEROSE                    1.03 IN   0751 PM 07/08   CWOP                 

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
POMONA                       1.87 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
NANUET                       1.62 IN   0730 PM 07/08   IFLOWS               
BLAUVELT                     1.27 IN   0801 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
UPPER NYACK                  1.02 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
0.9 N MONTEBELLO             1.01 IN   0730 PM 07/08   HADS                 

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
NORTHPORT                    1.18 IN   0750 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
SMITHTOWN                    1.02 IN   0800 PM 07/08   CWOP                 

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
MIDLAND PARK                 3.72 IN   0745 PM 07/08   IFLOWS               
EASTCHESTER                  2.17 IN   0754 PM 07/08   AWS                  
TARRYTOWN                    2.07 IN   0747 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
ELMSFORD                     2.02 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
ELMSFORD                     1.82 IN   0754 PM 07/08   AWS                  
IRVINGTON                    1.74 IN   0755 PM 07/08   AWS                  
NEW ROCHELLE                 1.63 IN   0801 PM 07/08   CWOP                 
NEW ROCHELLE                 1.39 IN   0750 PM 07/08   AWS                  
WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT         1.22 IN   0756 PM 07/08   ASOS                 
RYE                          1.21 IN   0754 PM 07/08   AWS                  
NORTH TARRYTOWN              1.17 IN   0754 PM 07/08   AWS                  

...NEW JERSEY...

...MARITIME STATIONS...
JERSEY CITY                  1.97 IN   0753 PM 07/08   CWOP                 

...NEW YORK...
CITY ISLAND                  1.85 IN   0802 PM 07/08   CWOP    

[NJwx85]

The center is over the Chesapeake Bay. For this to miss it needs to pass 50-100 miles SE of Cape May. Don’t see that happening. 

[hudsonvalley21]

Mesoscale Discussion 1208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0901 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

   Areas affected...Chesapeake Bay Vicinity

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 350...

   Valid 090201Z - 090300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues.

   SUMMARY...A marginal threat for a brief tornado may continue along
   the immediate Atlantic coast beyond the expiration of Tornado Watch
   350. No additional WW is expected this evening.

   DISCUSSION...The strongest convection in WW 350 has continued to
   move offshore in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. Farther
   inland, there has been little notable low-level rotation on regional
   radar imagery. As tropical storm Elsa continues northeast this
   evening, an isolated stronger convective cell could develop along
   the gulf stream and move inland. While low-level winds could still
   support a brief tornado, the unfavorable low-level thermodynamic
   environment -- especially inland of the immediate coast -- suggests
   that this threat will be marginal. No additional watches are
   anticipated this evening.

[nycsnow]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That would be a big bust for those that got nothing today. Good thing it's not winter.

Hrr and nam give us plenty of rain don’t know what he sees

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is wet but in a fairly narrow swath

 

3k

 

[hudsonvalley21]

Looks like to be moving right along the forecast track, maybe a tick east.

[ForestHillWx]

Immediate burbs and East for the bulk of the precip it seems. Dry slot here now. 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hrr and nam give us plenty of rain don’t know what he sees

Hrrr gives very little west of the city. 

[RippleEffect]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Hrr and nam give us plenty of rain don’t know what he sees

Mostly a NYC and East event! I doubt this happens I think the precip shield is much wider and distribution is area wide! 

[WE GOT HIM]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr gives very little west of the city. 

You can draw the axis already.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, user13 said:

You can draw the axis already.

Yeah right over my house. I guess I'll be happy with a quarter to a half inch

[MJO812]

[Rjay]

A couple tornado warnings; one in se Maryland and one in Delaware. 

[jm1220]

Looking like the heavy rain axis will be a bit east of predictions this morning. Sorry @psv88  

Around the city and points east look to have the best shot per radar and track. Nothing excessive but could definitely have 3-4" in some spots.

[Snowlover11]

unless she scoots east and fast, i dont see the heavy rain missing nyc metro and ne nj

[WE GOT HIM]

16 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

unless she scoots east and fast, I don't see the heavy rain missing nyc metro and ne nj

Looks nasty.

Everything in line with the axis I drew ealier

[Rtd208]

Moderate to heavy rain falling here.

Picked up 1.05" of rain so far today.

 

[SRRTA22]

I like NYC east for some possible TOR action between 5-9am

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Appears to be lots of rotation in these cells east of Stafford Township. I expect to see the Tornado Warning to be issued further north again as it has been moving up the coast all night. There should have been a watch issued. 

[nycsnow]

Lots of rotation offshore should hit nyc east 

[nycsnow]

 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

I believe a funnel cloud just passed over my yard in Beach Haven West. It was calm and the sudden woosh of air came in and launched my table and chairs off my porch and into the fence. I was watching this cell on radar and it appeared to have a couplet to my untrained eye. Could a Met chime and and see if they agree? 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I believe a funnel cloud just passed over my yard in Beach Haven West. It was calm and the sudden woosh of air came in and launched my table and chairs off my porch and into the fence. I was watching this cell on radar and it appeared to have a couplet to my untrained eye. Could a Met chime and and see if they agree?