crossbowftw3 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman21 said: Tropical Storm Watch up New Haven to Sagamore Beach. New NHC track appears to take it from about MTP to EWB to PYM. Discussion noted that watches were issued only for the reason of an unclear transition to Extratropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Right over me head 18 Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Hrrr with a wild backside from pressure rises. Phil visits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 HRRR wild for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR wild for all Can you link me? What site do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Can you link me? What site do you use? Weather.cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Jay there is a wind gust output but know those are clownish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jay there is a wind gust output but know those are clownish I'm probably going to set up in Dennisport. Head down tonight. Golf tomorrow. Storm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 I'm thinking of live streaming the event from my back patio with hourly updates, with one mixed drink or beer required per report. Continues until I can no longer go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Appetizer for august and September 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Appetizer for august and September I'd bet our chances for something tropical this season are likely tied with this storm, like Isaias around a similar time last season. Not discounting a peak season threat, but it has been a looong time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What’s interesting about that image is that that corpuscular like connective bullets ? those are a little super cells in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. interesting discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, Torch Tiger said: Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. Yup. Bingo we done told em that for days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Claudette and now this ? We’ll see how this one goes but I still think it’s a mystery. But in a way the NAM is kind of guilty of it too. We may be exposing that the models have trouble figuring out the phase transition for systems of this nature ..these examples tend to evince that or suggested so anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Elsa is looking fierce and her appearance is improving as she crawls up the South 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Congrats Cape Codders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 HRRR is nutz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR is nutz Ginx what type are peak gusts on that model? Dennis Port @Ginx snewx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Ginx what type are peak gusts on that model? Dennis Port @Ginx snewx 55 to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 55 to 60 I need to connect with Phil to see where I should go at peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Flooding a real concern over CT into w MA. Has to be sm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Jay there is a wind gust output but know those are clownish 55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR is nutz Ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 heh…nice of all of the “best” models to cave south together. If the 6z RGEM pans out I’m leaving the board. Rain begets rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR is nutz 1955 like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: heh…nice of all of the “best” models to cave south together. If the 6z RGEM pans out I’m leaving the board. Rain begets rain. You still need rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Not your classic TC, long wave trough interaction. It’s really more of a TC and potent shortwave interaction. I dunno what climo is off the top of my head but from what I recall, late spring or especially fall is when we have these come up our way due to more meridional flow that accompanies these seasons. We’re getting into mid July. We don’t have a big Bermuda High..What gives? I’m seeing surface temps in NNE in the 60’s while Areas of extreme northwestern Canada are pushing 90. A lot more baroclincity around the CONUS than one would expect. And that means more UL jet dynamics than one would expect. That’s my best guess as to what intensification the models curiously are seeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 The GEFS and EPS take this over Boston. If it’s a non-event, it won’t be bc of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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