40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Another prolific swell producer. Larry was a top 5 all time swell for me. This looks in that ball park Edge of my seat... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Edge of my seat... If only you were are surfer. The term “fish storm” does not apply. I’ll throw in ocean front home owner too, during Bill there were serious wash-overs and beach erosion from a storm that stayed offshore https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bill_(2009) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 People care about Ace That's boring to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People care about Ace That's boring to me Who doesn't like Ace? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 It's been coughing dry air though ... it may have peaked. By the time it clears the band of 'quasi'SAL toxic layer out there, it'll be moving over slightly less OHC ...so it's less likely it'll be Cat 4 ... still, a slow moving Cat 2..3 will telegraph some swells, sure - Meanwhile, the MDR is buck-shot with new developments. It's getting late in the year for those.. Usually, the MDR starts to shut down pretty fast into October. So on Sept 27 there's time against that climate clock but that latter curve is descending. As an aside, I was wondering if the MDR might have a later season than normal, just having that frequency all curving very early. Yup...my feel/take on the Tropics for 2021 moving forward would have to entertain via home grown, or home grown fusion/hybrid deals. Altho - Opal was a cat 5 briefly in the Gulf in mid October so ... that's a relatively rarer scenario tho. "Ida" was likely the main show. MDR's, even if so ...it just gets almost impossible to relay a laminar track without disruption. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: People care about Ace That's boring to me Not the winter implications it can have.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's been coughing dry air though ... it may have peaked. By the time it clears the band of 'quasi'SAL toxic layer out there, it'll be moving over slightly less OHC ...so it's less likely it'll be Cat 4 ... still, a slow moving Cat 2..3 will telegraph some swells, sure - Meanwhile, the MDR is buck-shot with new developments. It's getting late in the year for those.. Usually, the MDR starts to shut down pretty fast into October. So on Sept 27 there's time against that climate clock but that latter curve is descending. As an aside, I was wondering if the MDR might have a later season than normal, just having that frequency all curving very early. Yup...my feel/take on the Tropics for 2021 moving forward would have to entertain via home grown, or home grown fusion/hybrid deals. Altho - Opal was a cat 5 briefly in the Gulf in mid October so ... that's a relatively rarer scenario tho. "Ida" was likely the main show. MDR's, even if so ...it just gets almost impossible to relay a laminar track without disruption. It's obviously peaked...as 8-9/10 post ERC systems have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Opal peaked as a 4 at 150mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's obviously peaked...as 8-9/10 post ERC systems have. Um ... what does "8-9/10" mean ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Um ... what does "8-9/10" mean ? 8 or 9 out of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 8 or 9 out of 10. oh.. well, didn't look like Sam went through that sequence... It looked to me like dry air got entrained, and then I checked CIMS SAL layout out and the thing is plowing right through dry air, which since it looks more like that's what was occurring... Meanwhile, TPC is mentioning dry air evidences in their discussions. But, whichever .wtf cares ERC, dry dry air... blah blah, pick reason to stick an intern on the mids tropical desk for data entry/cataloguing .. it's probably peaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Follow Hurricane Sam Path, Spaghetti Models as Storm Barrels Towards East Coast Tom Fish 7 hrs ago Like13 Comments| 189 The East Coast has been told to stay alert to Hurricane Sam as the weather event continues to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh.. well, didn't look like Sam went through that sequence... It looked to me like dry air got entrained, and then I checked CIMS SAL layout out and the thing is plowing right through dry air, which since it looks more like that's what was occurring... Meanwhile, TPC is mentioning dry air evidences in their discussions. But, whichever .wtf cares ERC, dry dry air... blah blah, pick reason to stick an intern on the mids tropical desk for data entry/cataloguing .. it's probably peaked Looked like both dry air and ERC to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Time to throw in the towel this season or is there any hope those two waves off of Africa may do something later? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pooped on the edge of my seat... Leakage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Time to throw in the towel this season or is there any hope those two waves off of Africa may do something later? Fish Maybe a carribean crusher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Fish Maybe a carribean crusher? Ya that ain’t no fun either. It’s Over. Was a decent run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 October tropical meso low time? 2017 and 2019? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 About to get the ultimate weenie but I wouldn't write Sam off yet.. After looking through the 0z models tonight I think we get some interesting solutions in the coming days.. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: About to get the ultimate weenie but I wouldn't write Sam off yet.. After looking through the 0z models tonight I think we get some interesting solutions in the coming days.. have you been channeling James?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: About to get the ultimate weenie but I wouldn't write Sam off yet.. After looking through the 0z models tonight I think we get some interesting solutions in the coming days.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: About to get the ultimate weenie but I wouldn't write Sam off yet.. After looking through the 0z models tonight I think we get some interesting solutions in the coming days.. Sam is not even close on the 0z models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Looks boring for the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: About to get the ultimate weenie but I wouldn't write Sam off yet.. After looking through the 0z models tonight I think we get some interesting solutions in the coming days.. No. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Sam is not even close on the 0z models. Honestly, how many edibles did he have? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 I mean.. the storm isn't even a threat to Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 11 hours ago, ineedsnow said: About to get the ultimate weenie but I wouldn't write Sam off yet.. After looking through the 0z models tonight I think we get some interesting solutions in the coming days.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Honestly, how many edibles did he have? He needs to change his user name to ineededibles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Sam still cranking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 15 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Honestly, how many edibles did he have? lol this thread needed some spice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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