Torch Tiger Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Will be fun to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: That was almost a epic GFS run For wave lovers in Acadia, it probably was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 ugh not again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 That run isn’t close it’s so absurd overall, first … the characterization stops there. not close dopey run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 6z gfs is closer but still a miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z gfs is closer but still a miss Piece of advise....don't get hung up on 50 mile trends from a tropical system tracking se of NE....its akin to chasing a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. If things ever changed and that thing hit the US, you will see whole scale changes....its not going to get it done slowly trending to the NE from over Georgia's Bank. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: That run isn’t close it’s so absurd overall, first … the characterization stops there. not close dopey run This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 12 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Will be fun to track. Not IMHO. I'd rather cut my nails. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not IMHO. I'd rather cut my nails. I hear man-pedies are the new thing… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Looks like CMC makes landfall with SAM in New England. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Looks like CMC makes landfall with SAM in New England. Lol Yep Have to watch the ULL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 lock in the 12z CMC almost like what the GFS has been trying to do some runs.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Imagine all the interesting headline possibilities with a hurricane Sam? ”Wham! Bam! Thank you Sam” says the New York Post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Yeah that looks like a likely solution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: 6z gfs is closer but still a miss Ray's bunning for fun ..but, you can really see there that the U/A low could have captured, but I really strongly argue at this point that it fails to do so because the modeling is establishing suspicious beta-error, earlier on along the Sam's track guidance. I don't believe it is merely happenstance that the Euro, with correction/normalization schemes in that particular model that the GFS/GGEM/NAVGEM do not posses, is consummately W of these other guidance' ...a plausible error that actually begins by 96 hours then accumulates, and gets Sam too far out of reach to interact with that U/A low. That all said, the U/A/ cutting aspect of the flow is not very confidence. If that is weaker ...it could result the same miss, either way. Also, the position is wrong. Enthusiasts for storms want that closer to eastern KT - which at that range is not hard to correct towards... that parts tabled - For now, the blend of all guidance appears close enough to the "key slot" climatological lat/lon to monitor (~ 60 mi N of PR ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not IMHO. I'd rather cut my nails. well you think 1.5" slop in March is worth tracking, no worries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 welp we have the Canadian 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: well you think 1.5" slop in March is worth tracking, no worries No, actually I don't....everyone on the board knows that I don't care about the small events. I'm known for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 GGEM's a weak analog of Sandy actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GGEM's a weak analog of reality actually... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Going to hook ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Ya just saw that as I’m interested in the swell/wave production cmc was near Chatham and I laughed it off, euro makes a close pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya just saw that as I’m interested in the swell/wave production cmc was near Chatham and I laughed it off, euro makes a close pass Take a boat out to Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I’m going to enjoy this run until a met comes in and decides to ruin my hopes and dreams 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Mm... I will admit, that's a better position for the cut-off wrt to climate in these matters. But we're still sooooo f ing far away ... man. Perfect other hobbies and graduate kids from High School before this thing is available to serious consideration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 crushes E Canada...not far-fetched at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Shit that's a direct hit. Thankfully it's 10 days out but I don't like the theme lately. Not sure why the Maritimes are a hotbed for tropical activity now...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: crushes E Canada...not far-fetched at all Yeah not for that area. I think that is far fetched here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Take a boat out to Nantucket lol swell will be from Bahamas to Long Island to Newfoundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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