Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is he coming? All models now have a right front quadrant QLCS, nasty looking stuff 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is he coming? He never left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 4 hours ago, Sn0waddict said: Just nothing near what Isaias was please. Still this. Though I read the upton AFD and they said “winds overall are a lower concern with this event” so hopefully they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Looks quiet after Elsa passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Euro still tries for good winds SE MA and Cape. Maybe like BOS to HVN? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 tamarack gets his rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro still tries for good winds SE MA and Cape. Maybe like BOS to HVN? what are your thoughts on winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, correnjim1 said: what are your thoughts on winds? My guess is not much unless that goes a bit NW of BOS. Probably a 3-4hr soaking and some winds 20-30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Right over me noggin 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is not much unless that goes a bit NW of BOS. Probably a 3-4hr soaking and some winds 20-30. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 That might be aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: That might be aggressive. conservative 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That might be aggressive. EC is still pretty strong with that core...80kt at 925. Ukie is comparable, but it stays more offshore which makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That might be aggressive. Can't discount the Euro offhand with the upper air 850 and 925 showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: EC is still pretty strong with that core...80kt at 925. Ukie is comparable, but it stays more offshore which makes more sense. Hard to tell on the Ukie but it looks like it brings that core over the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is not much unless that goes a bit NW of BOS. Probably a 3-4hr soaking and some winds 20-30. Quick hitter. Saturday looks like a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Maybe a rare tropical storm watch and tornado watch combo for some places tomorrow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Almost lost count of the use of "hone in on" in this discussion. Confidence still highest in heavy rainfall with tropical downpours associated with Elsa as it moves through. PWAT values will get up to 2-2.25 inches, which is around the maximum for this time of year per SPC Sounding Climatology for CHH. Unsurprisingly, will have warm cloud layer depths between 3.5-4.5 km, so will have very efficient rainfall processes going on. Still some uncertainty on the track, which will delineate where the heaviest QPF is located and where the wind risk will be. Right now the greatest probabilities of 24 hr QPF AOA 1 inch are highest across the interior per the EPS/GEFS guidance, which falls in line with a more inland track as shown by the latest ECMWF. Will really need to hone in on this track for determining where the highest rainfall amounts are anticipated. This is somewhat in contrast to some of the latest deterministic guidance showing the highest swath from eastern CT/RI into eastern MA. So, will need to really hone in on the track to determine where the heaviest rain will fall and where there could potentially be a flood threat especially given the recent rains we`ve received. Went with the latest WPC guidance for QPF. Agree with the WPC latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. As stated in the previous section, will really need to hone in on the track of Elsa to determine not only the heavy rainfall risk, but also where the damaging wind risk will be highest. The latest ECWMF/NAM guidance are concerning given we have a 60-70+ kt southerly 925 hPa jet associated with Elsa crossing eastern portions of the CWA. Other pieces of deterministic guidance are a bit more muted with the strength of this jet, but have really just thrown out the GFS in the latest update as it appears to keep the core too far offshore, which is counter to the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON/NAM and GEM guidance. Will need to watch this closely. Once again will refer folks to the official NHC page for the official track/timing of Elsa as it moves through the region. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 How often do 925 wind speeds result in similar gusts at the surface? If you throw out the GFS, almost every model has 50-75 kt winds at 925 for RI and SE MA as Elsa flies by... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 72 hour hour Euro ensemble snip from Weather Nerds... Several 50 knot plus members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 72 hour hour Euro ensemble snip from Weather Nerds... Several 50 knot plus members. We might be “L’d” out of existence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I'm not sure I understand ( Meteorologically ) what the mechanisms are these guidance are "honing in on" to maintain that type of system structure/identity/and power this far N over cold water/land interface, after already having traversed total land for some 500 miles. wtf man - no one is question how these guidance are doing that, - they are just programmed to discuss what it impacts the surface as though there is not other option? I guess that's what we've become. wholly reliant But you know, if they're right they're right... But then I have to question if that disk of wind is anywhere less than 1500 meters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I understand ( Meteorologically ) what the mechanisms are these guidance are "honing in on" to maintain that type of system structure/identity/and power this far N over cold water/land interface, after already having traversed total land for some 500 miles. wtf man - no one is question how these guidance are doing that, - they are just programmed to discuss what it impacts the surface as though there is not other option? I guess that's what we've become. wholly reliant But you know, if they're right they're right... But then I have to question if that disk of wind is anywhere less than 1500 meters I hope that the models are picking up on some kind of baroclinic transition, as I can see those winds being probable in a transitioning hybrid system, certainly not anything fully tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I hope that the models are picking up on some kind of baroclinic transition, as I can see those winds being probable in a transitioning hybrid system, certainly not anything fully tropical. I've seen mets discuss the 1938 hurricane, and while it has been a Cat 5 in the Bahamas, it still had Cat 3 winds because of baroclinic forcing. Almost no rain West of the center. I'd guess that is what the ensembles are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I understand ( Meteorologically ) what the mechanisms are these guidance are "honing in on" to maintain that type of system structure/identity/and power this far N over cold water/land interface, after already having traversed total land for some 500 miles. wtf man - no one is question how these guidance are doing that, - they are just programmed to discuss what it impacts the surface as though there is not other option? I guess that's what we've become. wholly reliant But you know, if they're right they're right... But then I have to question if that disk of wind is anywhere less than 1500 meters 925 LL jet Baroclinic enhancement. See Isaias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Tropical Storm Watch up New Haven to Sagamore Beach. New NHC track appears to take it from about MTP to EWB to PYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt. This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time. The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I see this as mostly GON to cape cod for winds I think. Just my guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 8+ inches or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Looks like the 18z GFS caught on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now