MJO812 Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 96L now has a high chance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Let’s hope this next one turns out to be Henri’s evil cousin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Light rain and NE winds. Hold me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Light rain and NE winds. Hold me. Not happy, as long as it clears out so I can Salvage Sat and Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Just now, Modfan2 said: Not happy, as long as it clears out so I can Salvage Sat and Sun Oh I meant more for next week. Commenting on Busthardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Not happy, as long as it clears out so I can Salvage Sat and Sun Ill be at the BIG E Friday morning and then Breaking Benjamin and Papa Roach Friday night at Mohegan Sun I dont care what the weather is... going to be a fun packed day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 The long run of the 0zGFS is showing a major hurricane near New England,l from 95L, wouldn’t bet on it this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 1 minute ago, hurricaneman said: The long run of the 0zGFS is showing a major hurricane near New England,l from 95L, wouldn’t bet on it this far out Thats actually a big hit on the Cape most do good though.. to bad its so far out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 the CMC is lost with 96L lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 The 0z gfs is what EVERYONE wants to see.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: The 0z gfs is what EVERYONE wants to see.... bring it a little west then yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Good luck with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 7 hours ago, ineedsnow said: the CMC is lost with 96L lol CMC and tropics, 'nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Good luck with that. Keep on saying it and it will eventually happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 8 hours ago, ineedsnow said: the CMC is lost with 96L lol All of them are... Hard to say what that is out there if just being model-reliant. I think the present now's argue that it is purely tropical for starters... Has to be. There is no source of dry air/non-tropical vertical thermal plumb along any radii within what is clearly now evidenced, a closing circulation. There was a bit of a weak TUTT in the vicinity up until 2 .. 3 days ago, and either a wave or a self-sustaining convection contained sort of 'out lasted' its decay. And now in addition, there are CU fractals/structures moving curvi-linearly toward the E, into that N-S stationary wall of CBs, indicating there has to be a lowering pressure in the center of that mass whether NHC believes it or not... That's probably it. If it keeps up with lowering shear and improving outflow, what's to stop. And when it goes, not sure I see what the mitigating factors are/reticence by the models. I wonder .. The models may not even know it is there yet. I wonder if what we are really seeing with the general consensus for broadly constructing, shallow circulation ...or even an inverted trough, is/are based purely on exhausting numerical instability/favorable kinematics off the EC. In this sense... until they are forced to see a materialized cyclone actually existing in the initialization nets, then we get the coherent nucleus finally. This could be a candidate for a sampling mission.. The present track of this would-be cyclone, as of now in the models, appears to really be tracking along with the WAR circulation between the lower sigma and pehraps beneath 700 mb trajectories. But a deeper vertically integrated system might not follow those stream lines and may end up steered more E anyway. Hard to say.. but looking at the Euro and GFS orientations, the 500 mb is moving more N out along 70 W, but then turns in time and exits ENE trajectory by 72 hours so .... Maybe spending this time typing more out of virtue to the science of it, versus much risk for anyone ... heh. But, if a system develops and does get more prominent it can change the sounding, one, but either way, if that development occurs and it pops N of 35N prior to 70 hours, it could come further W before climo sends it to the grave. So lot's needs to roll off the dice here ..but that 'seems' to be the deal with this thing - I'm sure another analysis out there disagrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 13 hours ago, Sn0waddict said: My bet is 95L is less impressive on modeling as the days go by 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 8 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My bet is 95L is less impressive on modeling as the days go by Fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Fish Weak fish is my guess I’m not sold it will even develop beyond a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 9 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My bet is 95L is less impressive on modeling as the days go by I certainly do not see anything blog worthy as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Very boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Meh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: I’ll go with M. J ventrice’s Take any day over Hazelton (and weeklies) on where it’s favorable / unfavorable Regarding tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll go with M. J ventrice’s Take any day over Hazelton (and weeklies) on where it’s favorable / unfavorable Regarding tropics Yeah the rest of month looks meh. In October, it may be different..especially beyond first week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the rest of month looks meh. In October, it may be different..especially beyond first week. Yup, I would guess there will be a favorable phase ...in that time frame . last year zeta greeted us with snow into Downtown Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 that red area off the Carolinas will be in Nova Scotia by the time a depression finally pops lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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