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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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On 9/2/2021 at 10:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just entered my radar, but still not interested.

 

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This was never interesting in the least to me...not for a second. I know the trend has reversed, but even before that.

 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Day later 

 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thankfully shear looks a bit unfavorable in the Gulf this week but that tropical wave which emerges into the Gulf is sure going to try I bet

Yea, its watchable, but my interest is pretty tempered...not only battling shear, as you mentioned, but lots of land interaction.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its watchable, but my interest is pretty tempered...not only battling shear, as you mentioned, but lots of land interaction.

Agreed.

I mean if anything, torrential rains and gusty winds could certainly cause a bit of a setback with power restorations and clean-up. Last I heard there are still many people without running water and access to clean water. 

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Looks like it crossed the 15th parallel closer to 42 W ...where as that EPS mean has it crossing(ed) back near 40 (~40.5W)  

That subtle variance means almost nothing in the near term ... but could imply there is a model bias-tug to pull it N prematurely in general. 

Other than that ...  yeah, the attitude in the models has stopped .. or even reversed in some cases, trying to draw Larry out early. There was steady left correction for about three days ...not huge, but 100 to 200 naut mi per cycle, more noticeable accumulated by the 96 to 120 hour range.   00z last night behavior stopped pretty hard. 

Watch the convection flaring east of the TUTT off the SE U.S. coast ...  that could dump some latent head E and S of whatever that is. For that matter, am noticing the TUTT has a pretty robust circulation identity -  The "Schwoeglerian" almost wonders if these guidance' are using it/mistaking it as a steering field. 

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I've never seen this before.

The GFS was too far NE across the Basin in the early days...but by D7 lead it corrected.. In all, the blend NAILED Larry's track guidance from 8 days out

Other than very trivial nuances that really don't mean anything - there's not been substantive deviation.  There were a couple days of left correction but in the time, those were not nearly enough to matter or really change expectations.  Amazing.

Track guidance in practice and science has certainly improved over the years but I wonder if this is just an easy scenario for the technology, too.  We are not typically that confidence in a D8 position over the MDR -   lol

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14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tropics are boring right now

Good news.  I'm ok with a more stable regime for a few weeks. October usually has some fun and games.   Let the rivers / water tables recede and let some people recover. I like exciting weather like anyone ,but the human/ infrastructure toll has been sad to see.  

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