Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 This is insanity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 I would think that Ida should rank right up there as far as the length of time a hurricane has maintained winds of 100 mph or greater after official landfall. Ida did make landfall in the swampland and marshy areas that would help maintain the winds and storm structure, but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Apologies I failed “How to Embed 101” Eric Webb @webberweather · 4h Verbatim that z500a configuration isn't far off from potentially presenting a problem for either Atlantic Canada & perhaps New England if it were to shift west/amplify. Plenty of time to watch though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A+ Forecast dating back to Thursday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/major-hurricane-idea-verification.html 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 While the chance of impacts are extremely scant, I think it would be well worth it to keep an eye on soon-to-be Larry. Henri's earlier landfall (as pathetic as it was) is a sign that there very much is an atmospheric pattern to allow for such situations. In addition, Larry will have weeks of time over the atlantic to strengthen and grow larger. As of right now all guidance is well out to sea, but there have been consistent West shifts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Some more than others ... but that was a pretty significant shift left among all guidance wrt to Lar' dawg out there late mid range/extended. Another shift like that, considering also the circulation mode of the hemisphere, may result in la-la range threat for Atlantic Canada. My personal index finger rule is that a TC needs to get ~ to the 60 W longitude marker ... along or S of 20 N to have a shot much west of there, and even then, Bermuda seems to steal most. But that seems to be a 'probability ramp up' requirement to even begin considering EC shenanigans on this side of the imagination. Right now, Larry is progged by Euro GFS ....GGEM NOGEM ... to flop on the polar side of said latitude still some 500 naut miles or more E of 60 W ...but, the trend to move to this 00z mean position by some 800 of that distance is probably plenty of tell that this thing is correcting west in time. The next aspect is that the mean position needs to get to that benchmark by 96 to 120 hours. If it has not yet done so by that lead model time ...it's likely buh-bye. So, we'll see if this thing can even get to stage 1 Bun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Larry either has an eye, or archetype of one ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Larry legend is gonna serve up one hell of a swell event . beaches with SE exposure (Maine /NH, outer cape and islands , parts of RI , down thru mid Atlantic . Should begin to ping Beaches early next week Nice long period ground swells with a 5 or so minute wait between sets always surprise a few boaters and swimmers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 That is now 6 hours of faux eye artifact ... ya almost wonder if there are some circumstances where structurally the core will eye-out prior to the hurricane wind threshold. We've seen it in sat and read it in official statements in the past, "...Primitive eye-like feature..." Maybe this is the primitive eye on steroids - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Wow euro gets Larry dangerously close to Atlantic Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 27 minutes ago, Hazey said: Wow euro gets Larry dangerously close to Atlantic Canada It's the left corrections that should be more of interest ... This run continued to do so... trend - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's the left corrections that should be more of interest ... This run continued to do so... trend - Congrats forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 Either NJ or Nova Scotia will get Larry. Bank on that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Icon is more west with Larry. Most likely a fish but interesting that the models keep shifting the storm west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 On 9/1/2021 at 9:45 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Some more than others ... but that was a pretty significant shift left among all guidance wrt to Lar' dawg out there late mid range/extended. Another shift like that, considering also the circulation mode of the hemisphere, may result in la-la range threat for Atlantic Canada. My personal index finger rule is that a TC needs to get ~ to the 60 W longitude marker ... along or S of 20 N to have a shot much west of there, and even then, Bermuda seems to steal most. But that seems to be a 'probability ramp up' requirement to even begin considering EC shenanigans on this side of the imagination. Right now, Larry is progged by Euro GFS ....GGEM NOGEM ... to flop on the polar side of said latitude still some 500 naut miles or more E of 60 W ...but, the trend to move to this 00z mean position by some 800 of that distance is probably plenty of tell that this thing is correcting west in time. The next aspect is that the mean position needs to get to that benchmark by 96 to 120 hours. If it has not yet done so by that lead model time ...it's likely buh-bye. So, we'll see if this thing can even get to stage 1 Bun Just entered my radar, but still not interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just entered my radar, but still not interested. How about now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 As much as I am certain that this will not go anywhere near the eastern seaboard, we can't discount the journey of Henri from fish to (pathetically weak) threat. The pattern has been there this year, folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Of the many hypotheticals regarding Larry is there any suggestion that this would at least move quicker than Henri did if it made a pass up here? If it doesn’t it’s basically another disorganized mess anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Of the many hypotheticals regarding Larry is there any suggestion that this would at least move quicker than Henri did if it made a pass up here? If it doesn’t it’s basically another disorganized mess anyway? Frankly Larry right now in the EATL is already practically as strong as Henri was at it's peak. Conditions look conducive for further strengthening in the near future, despite potential dry air entrainment. In addition, Larry has a far larger circulation, and even if it was in the state Henri was in it would move much more water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 18z eps continues the west trend 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 Several members if you go farther out in the ensemble run go west of Bermuda and impact the NE US and Nova Scotia, may have to watch this even though it’s a slim chance for the NE US but most probable an Atlantic Canada landfall especially Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 18z eps continues the west trend I was just looking at the SW shift the ensembles from 18z euro made from 12z. This is interesting now , maybe it stops trending and steam rolls Bermuda, but the trend has many members west of Bermuda and also just initially not gaining as much latitude and being a large system...a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I was just looking at the SW shift the ensembles from 18z euro made from 12z. This is interesting now , maybe it stops trending and steam rolls Bermuda, but the trend has many members west of Bermuda and also just initially not gaining as much latitude and being a large system...a monster Kiss it goodbye. OTS on all Euro Ens. Not even close this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Kiss it goodbye. OTS on all Euro Ens. Not even close this run. lol , so the trend reversed . Still swell gone wild Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: How about now Nope. 0.0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 12 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I was just looking at the SW shift the ensembles from 18z euro made from 12z. This is interesting now , maybe it stops trending and steam rolls Bermuda, but the trend has many members west of Bermuda and also just initially not gaining as much latitude and being a large system...a monster This was never interesting in the least to me...not for a second. I know the trend has reversed, but even before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nope. 0.0% Yeah. He gone and has been gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 What’s that blob in the Caribbean moving north on that last panel? Maybe we’ll have a shot with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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