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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One wonders if Ida's specific approach angle might "spare" - if we wanna call it that .. - the higher potential surge that could otherwise come up the mouth of the Miss.   It's approach is from the south side. 

Now .. obviously the region below NOLA as shown below ... is very lowland - essentially sealevel.  Really it's probably more of a tidal flat in these sort of sea level rise scenario.  I'm not sure if there is some upper threshold where if it gets so inundating it just over-runs and submerges the whole region.  Think of it .. as though for a moment at apex, NOLA is the shore... 

That's what all this "looks like"  - it would be interesting to sit with a FEMA pro from that region and really get into the details of the envisioned scenarios.

https://www.ravenmaps.com/mm5/graphics/blog/Gulf_Coast_Detail_1582915539.jpg

Actually it's the worst possible approach.  The surge is driving 30 ft seas from the SE to the NE. This drives it up into Lake P

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28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually it's the worst possible approach.  The surge is driving 30 ft seas from the SE to the NE. This drives it up into Lake P

Mm, not so sure about that...  The greatest storm surge tends to happen where the winds impact the coast at the maximum wind radii -

That means the llv cyclonic jet orientation of and near the eye-wall.  There is also science about the lower pressure helping to lift the surface in that vicinity. 

By convention of land falling systems in the N Hemisphere, that is on the right side of the eye ..but in this case, that does not extend far enough to put the greatest surge into those channel waters.  

Having said that, ...it doesn't really alleviate the the 'threat' by very much - no.  I mean, the 'funneling' effect, ...plus, 70 kt sustain or whatever physical wind strafe is going to blow up that region, is likely to have surge impacts.  

But as far the 'worst possible surge potential' ... it doesn't appear based upon the above that can be realized by an eye-wall/ low pressure intersection, that is on the other side of the peninsula. 

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

...

I thought it was neat how the 00z operational Euro phased Ida's vestigial ...whatever it is as it is nearing the upper M/A, into a N-stream trough like it does. The union converts that into a pretty impressive nor'easter, with copious rains [ probably ] for SE sections and some CCB conveyor winds as well.   

Not sure that's going to do that...just what that guidance portrayed.   The 00z GFS seems to smear it more west...

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought it was neat how the 00z operational Euro phased Ida's vestigial ...whatever it is as it is nearing the upper M/A, into a N-stream trough like it does. The union converts that into a pretty impressive nor'easter, with copious rains [ probably ] for SE sections and some CCB conveyor winds as well.   

Not sure that's going to do that...just what that guidance portrayed.   The 00z GFS seems to smear it more west...

Let’s get that 6 weeks from now with anomalous cold and a block

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