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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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Talk about a weenie! Won't even be close!
 
 
 
 
interaction with non tropical feature will cause Elsa to pack Isaias like punch in the NE and MA. s to se winds cause more tree damage than NW at same speed 2 reasons, 1) most strong NW gusts in winter,. 2. Trees lean SE ( especially pines) Better lift. Prepare for outages
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5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:
Talk about a weenie! Won't even be close!
 
 
 
 
interaction with non tropical feature will cause Elsa to pack Isaias like punch in the NE and MA. s to se winds cause more tree damage than NW at same speed 2 reasons, 1) most strong NW gusts in winter,. 2. Trees lean SE ( especially pines) Better lift. Prepare for outages

I bet Joe loves his job of getting to shout nonsense from the heavens. 

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First time I've ever read the ICON being discussed in BOX discussion?  GFS "thrown out" lol...

Quote
Confidence still highest in heavy rainfall with tropical downpours
associated with Elsa as it moves through. PWAT values will get up to
2-2.25 inches, which is around the maximum for this time of year per
SPC Sounding Climatology for CHH. Unsurprisingly, will have warm
cloud layer depths between 3.5-4.5 km, so will have very efficient
rainfall processes going on. Still some uncertainty on the track,
which will delineate where the heaviest QPF is located and where the
wind risk will be. Right now the greatest probabilities of 24 hr QPF
AOA 1 inch are highest across the interior per the EPS/GEFS
guidance, which falls in line with a more inland track as shown by
the latest ECMWF. Will really need to hone in on this track for
determining where the highest rainfall amounts are anticipated. This
is somewhat in contrast to some of the latest deterministic guidance
showing the highest swath from eastern CT/RI into eastern MA. So,
will need to really hone in on the track to determine where the
heaviest rain will fall and where there could potentially be a flood
threat especially given the recent rains we`ve received. Went with
the latest WPC guidance for QPF. Agree with the WPC latest Day 3
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

As stated in the previous section, will really need to hone in on
the track of Elsa to determine not only the heavy rainfall risk, but
also where the damaging wind risk will be highest. The latest
ECWMF/NAM guidance are concerning given we have a 60-70+ kt
southerly 925 hPa jet associated with Elsa crossing eastern portions
of the CWA. Other pieces of deterministic guidance are a bit more
muted with the strength of this jet, but have really just thrown out
the GFS in the latest update as it appears to keep the core too far
offshore, which is counter to the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON/NAM and GEM
guidance. Will need to watch this closely. Once again will refer
folks to the official NHC page for the official track/timing of Elsa
as it moves through the region.

 

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5 minutes ago, Nova737 said:

For the first time i can remember the center of the cone goes directly over me. This is going to be interesting/fun. :D

I think the last time center went directly over RI was Bob in 1991... been close in a few other cases... not sure if this thing will be tropical as it passes over New England though...

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6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I think the last time center went directly over RI was Bob in 1991... been close in a few other cases... not sure if this thing will be tropical as it passes over New England though...

Bob happened a year before I was born. The last significant tropical conditions I recall were from Irene in 2011 and even that storm made landfall 2 states over. Lost power for 3 days.

 

This wont be nearly as strong as that, but it will still be entertaining. :)

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14 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I think the last time center went directly over RI was Bob in 1991... been close in a few other cases... not sure if this thing will be tropical as it passes over New England though...

Ok but does the center of the storm have a less probability of passing towards the edges of the cone, or is it the same percentage of probability throughout the whole cone? 

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