JC-CT Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea they won't go to that extreme, yet..... Euro Is that today's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2021 Author Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: Give me home grown instead of having to sweat every trough pulling a storm north in the Atlantic every day for two weeks This. Homebrew is almost always the way to go. Give me something that pops in the central Caribbean and gets rocketed north. 20 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: So this storm managed to do in a single hour what Henri couldn’t accomplish in 3 days That’s just how it goes. Major landfalling EC hurricanes are hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 47 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Is that today's run? Yeppers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 3 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: New Orleans for all its troubles is a very fun place to visit and the people are top notch. I hope they get past this It's a scary damn place though. I went alone a few times for nights out, no drinking after 8. lol my second day there in '04 I heard a shooting..turns out it was 5 blocks away, ak-47 through a high school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: It's a scary damn place though. I went alone a few times for nights out, no drinking after 8. lol my second day there in '04 I heard a shooting..turns out it was 5 blocks away, ak-47 through a high school Yeah I don’t mean to sugarcoat it too much . You’re 100% right but during the daytime it’s a lot of fun. Just keep an eye on the homeless folks and always walk in groups.. But also, beignets! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Remnants will be up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 29 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Yeah I don’t mean to sugarcoat it too much . You’re 100% right but during the daytime it’s a lot of fun. Just keep an eye on the homeless folks and always walk in groups.. But also, beignets! It's a great place, would suck if they got another major. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 agree with prediction elevation to Category 4 nearing landfall, but there is no way to know if it maxes there or touches Cat 5 or remains just 4. It's outflow expanse is growing immense - it has huge room for intensification. It is likely whatever shear there is, is likely to be subsumed by the total mechanic presence of Ida in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Bingo! The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday. Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance now brings Ida to category 4 intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 They're also mentioning the ERC stuff ... The thing is, neither the RI, or ERCs can be ascertained, as to the extent it maximizes, or the latter fluctuation compromise wind velocity. But at that point ...it's really splitting hairs. 130 or 150 ... you got redic pressure well and probably a 20" tsunamis overtopped by wave running over the coast... I will say that with the dynamical models predicting the expansion of the wind field, it seems unlikely that a core would not begin to replace ... But, we're likely to get the RI first. Of the two phenomenon, the RI is more confidence. Bottom line, by 36 hours we may have a strong Cat 4 with no ability to weaken or drain off IKE prior to landfall most likely along the Miss. Delta/tide-water area. Inundation/over-run over those geographic features, and also up the mouth of the Mississippi would take place where ever nakedly exposed to the arrival of a storm surge given to present consensus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: They're also mentioning the ERC stuff ... The thing is, neither the RI, or ERCs can be ascertained, as to the extent it maximizes, or the latter fluctuation compromise wind velocity. But at that point ...it's really splitting hairs. 130 or 150 ... you got redic pressure well and probably a 20" tsunamis overtopped by wave running over the coast... I will say that with the dynamical models predicting the expansion of the wind field, it seems unlikely that a core would not begin to replace ... But, we're likely to get the RI first. Of the two phenomenon, the RI is more confidence. Bottom line, by 36 hours we may have a strong Cat 4 with no ability to weaken or drain off IKE prior to landfall most likely along the Miss. Delta/tide-water area. Inundation/over-run over those geographic features, and also up the mouth of the Mississippi would take place where ever nakedly exposed to the arrival of a storm surge given to present consensus I.K.E. for IDA versus Rita Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I.K.E. for IDA versus Rita Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 https://video.pbswisconsin.org/video/hurricanes-camille-katrina-rs7iw9/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 0z ICON is a disaster for New Orleans then we flood up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 When it comes to Tropics I don’t know much, but the last few frames of IR look mighty good. Looks like she’s about to strengthen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/25-philadelphia-region/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 IDA is now in rapid intensification mode now I think.. looking better and better by the minute... I wish my vacation fell two weeks earlier I would have went down and stayed 10 miles or so from the beach.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 This one's gonna be real trouble. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: IDA is now in rapid intensification mode now I think.. looking better and better by the minute... I wish my vacation fell two weeks earlier I would have went down and stayed 10 miles or so from the beach.. Funny. We’re going to NO during turkey week and I’m hoping for the opposite…wishing this thing falls apart and spares an area that was ravaged by Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 I think this one spares NoLa the worst luckily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: They're also mentioning the ERC stuff ... The thing is, neither the RI, or ERCs can be ascertained, as to the extent it maximizes, or the latter fluctuation compromise wind velocity. But at that point ...it's really splitting hairs. 130 or 150 ... you got redic pressure well and probably a 20" tsunamis overtopped by wave running over the coast... I will say that with the dynamical models predicting the expansion of the wind field, it seems unlikely that a core would not begin to replace ... But, we're likely to get the RI first. Of the two phenomenon, the RI is more confidence. Bottom line, by 36 hours we may have a strong Cat 4 with no ability to weaken or drain off IKE prior to landfall most likely along the Miss. Delta/tide-water area. Inundation/over-run over those geographic features, and also up the mouth of the Mississippi would take place where ever nakedly exposed to the arrival of a storm surge given to present consensus Doesn't have time for an ERC....watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Funny. We’re going to NO during turkey week and I’m hoping for the opposite…wishing this thing falls apart and spares an area that was ravaged by Katrina. Your only shot is a track far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 As an FYI, alligator season starts on Wednesday in eastern parts of Louisiana. Terrible economic impact for the fishermen and gator hunters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 About to go boom, pressure starting to drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 there you go, last pass ~982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 It’s still taking its time to intensify, as we can see with the wind field, despite the clear organization trend. No rapid intensification for now. IMO the delay only further diminishes the already low chance that an ERC would take place close to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s still taking its time to intensify, as we can see with the wind field, despite the clear organization trend. No rapid intensification for now. IMO the delay only further diminishes the already low chance that an ERC would take place close to landfall. It's as though it were teetering with doing the show ... peaking around the curtain in apprehension. Pressure falls may lag the -80 cloud topped meso/nuclei that appear to be concentrating and also accelerating in the last hour. It's really either symbolic of, or outright indication there in, that it's T-minus an hour or two before we see either an RI or a goodly intensification either way. The question is, how far does that go and to what extreme - ... does it core out 24 mb and accelerate by 30 mph inside of 12 hours ...Or plus or minus either of those metrics, respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now