Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 18z gfs says hello NoLa. Will be in Tampa by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Will be in Tampa by tomorrow morning. Good. Take out That shithole city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 HWRF shows Cat 3-4 for Louisiana. It was the most accurate on Henri for most of its life. Euro shows up to 17 inches of rain in 24 hrs in south central TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Nice to see BIG canes showing up on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Good. Take out That shithole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Florida is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 That's gonna be bad. For whom exactly is unknown but an upper tier headliner TC appears imminent to the mid range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Interesting that even BOX is mentioning for us to be aware of the remnants late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Interesting that even BOX is mentioning for us to be aware of the remnants late next week? yeah the sort of 'super synoptic' suggestion is that whatever is delivered from the tropics E of Texas really has only one of two options: -- stalls and rains out down there, probably right where they desperately need 20" of rain, the Tennessee Valley. -- smears up and around the western circulation aspects of the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 I mentioned this half in jest/seriousness the other day ... but it was really interesting and still is how the main player global numerical guidance ( operational versions ) were all taking the zygote 99L ( which I'm surprised that isn't designated a depression looking at various satellite channels/sources, but it's not a criticism; likely to be that way by sundown) on a N-central Gulf landfall trajectory, doing so with uncanny similarity in both timing and intensity. Remarkably consistent, and now also the fringe guidance types have all toed the line on that. I also suspect the similar handing of a Sierra Leone ejection into the CV climo transit, and rapid/strong development should be considered above the relative la-la range aspect. It's out there D6+ ... but the status of the VV potentials, combined with a +NAO-like circulation emerging and and overarching the Basin/transit would put that region quite favorable and these guidance seem to both plug a system into those kinematics, but most importantly have a TW over Africa already in "AI mind" ... 98L shouldn't be discounted either. That may develop ... whether or not it then interacts with that trough is negotiable really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 GGEM reduxes, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Depression designation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 this thing could actually bomb - I mean... if there were ever a rapid intensification model, now might be a time to refer to it. just sayn' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 The “Anti-Henri” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 2 hurricanes ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Risking being personally merited with the dreaded Category 5 Bun, ... Still, I keep seeing this ominous synoptic layout in the Atlantic Basin CV transit. What makes it intriguing is that the STR is strengthening that is over-arching it ...and that is from the Euro, which is cross-guidance in agreement with the GEF's rising NAO during that period, ~ D6 -10... The hemispheric mode is saddling Ferrel latitudes with the balast of surface pressure... This is very consistent in multiple guidance types, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Exactly why should the Gulf have all the excitement….. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Top ten natural disaster in the making IMHO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/developing-ida-poses-potentially.html 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 La La land but jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Top ten natural disaster in the making IMHO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/developing-ida-poses-potentially.html aggressive, damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: this thing could actually bomb - I mean... if there were ever a rapid intensification model, now might be a time to refer to it. just sayn' The 0z 3k Nam has it bombing to 897 MB by hr 57. That is Cat 5 easily. The setup is very similar to that of Hurricane Camille in 1969, which formed near the Cayman Islands, crossed extreme W Cuba and made landfall on the LA/MS border. Lowest pressure was 900 MB, and winds were estimated at 200 mph after all instruments were blown away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 The NAM also had Henri at around 925mb. sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: this thing could actually bomb - I mean... if there were ever a rapid intensification model, now might be a time to refer to it. just sayn' SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) That would bring Ida to 110 knots 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 It used to always be that you could count on a right bias in the track guidance beyond ... so many hours. It appeaers that doesn't apply in this situation so much, for only being 3 days. If it did, this might correct toward the upper Texas Coast. I don't know about Rays 145 to 165 mph max wind nearing the coast, per se .. but I do agree in principle. The modeling of the TC its self, vs the modeled surrounding parametric soup of almost ideal favorable conditions, certainly spooks as the dreaded "intensifying upon approach," scenario ... Timing that, or if it RI earlier then leading *usually* a phase of ERC ...and all those nuanced aspect cannot be ascertained at this time, but seeing as those types of "alleviation" are fleeting, uncertain... and frankly appears to be the only aspects that can mitigate this scenario's upside, it is one that looks very bad - to me. Andrew did something like this...as did Camille, and there is plenty of at least anecdotal discussion in back offices spaces related to these tempests that do that. Sort of bide time and then go nuts nearing the shore, as at least performing at the classification. It's almost synergistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: https://twitter.com/COweatherman/status/1431246028842291200?s=20 15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: aggressive, damn Michael was one of the big five that I cited in my forecast for a reason. Sit back, and enjoy the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It used to always be that you could count on a right bias in the track guidance beyond ... so many hours. It appeaers that doesn't apply in this situation so much, for only being 3 days. If it did, this might correct toward the upper Texas Coast. I don't know about Rays 145 to 165 mph max wind nearing the coast, per se .. but I do agree in principle. The modeling of the TC its self, vs the modeled surrounding parametric soup of almost ideal favorable conditions, certainly spooks as the dreaded "intensifying upon approach," scenario ... Timing that, or if it RI earlier then leading *usually* a phase of ERC ...and all those nuanced aspect cannot be ascertained at this time, but seeing as those types of "alleviation" are fleeting, uncertain... and frankly appears to be the only aspects that can mitigate this scenario's upside, it is one that looks very bad - to me. Andrew did something like this...as did Camille, and there is plenty of at least anecdotal discussion in back offices spaces related to these tempests that do that. Sort of bide time and then go nuts nearing the shore, as at least performing at the classification. It's almost synergistic. The key to my forecast is that I don't think this has much time to complete an ERC, but even if it does, we will just trade some wind impact for more surge. This one will rank up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Present convective explosion appears to be a threshold success and we may see this ramp a bit - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Not that bullish on MDR storms moving west for east coast threats this year . Home grown and Cape Verde recurves CCKW passing Over IDA , I’m sure that’s not helping ....and why this area was nearly a shoe in for activity from mid week to next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Not that bullish on MDR storms moving west for east coast threats this year . Home grown and Cape Verde recurves CCKW passing Over IDA , I’m sure that’s not helping ....and why this area was nearly a shoe in for activity from mid week to next week I am not bullish on succeeding long tracks, any and every year lol... Like we outlined last page or two ago, it's like 'exposure' to reasons not to succeed is to great, and creates to low of probability to do so. That said, ...yar some years seem to demo flatter longer motions before getting pulled up. If that establishes earlier on... it may 'sort of' barometer the rest of that year. This year doesn't 'seem' like one of those, no. If the NAO does rise like the recent GEFs-based telecon suggests, that's a good start for getting one to do so. But we'll see... Not to be presumptuous ...but are you thinking about that next one coming off Africa in 4 days ? That's an impressive consistent signal in the operational and ensembles of them, going back 3-days worth of cycles now. That means the panoply of prognostic tools all see/saw it over a week from emerging off Africa - that's weird. The GGEM is not the owner of the tastiest solution for D8 ... day 8 haha! It's more about knowing it'll be on the charts I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Give me home grown instead of having to sweat every trough pulling a storm north in the Atlantic every day for two weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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