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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's over 

Screenshot_20210824-104719_Twitter.jpg

It’s not over lol. Patterns reshuffle. The general look September and October will probably feature a return to the ridging that allows for some CVs to get further west. 

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think the gulf and Caribbean as well as “just off east coast will be the hot spots for development 

Yeah. I think there will be a little more MDR activity than last year because of the favorable MJO and eastern MDR environment which favors more instability IMO (despite SSTs), but I think when climo shifts to the homebrew regions in late September/early October it’ll be red hot. 

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It really is kind of cookie cutter conceptually obvious why that is...

-NAO intrinsically means a 'curved' tendency to the flow structure of the hemisphere  - think lowered AAM.   That means mid levels tend to flow more along N-S trajectories, such that it is probabilistically unfavorable for any west moving system to make it the several thousand naut miles without a diving jet/aspect pulling it out ...etc.

What is really wanted for an E coast and New England express is phase change in from +NAO to -NAO, over the western limb of the domain... right around as the system is nearing the outer Bahamas.  

But keeping in mind of course ...these are idealized models.  I'm sure at some point in the last million years ..whenever inter-glacial periods had warm seasonal seas, there have been big bombs denuding Long Island in a +NAO ... just as well as one making it across the Basin in a predominantly -NAO regime.  It's just a matter of "less likeliness" - not impossible.

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4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm surprised the hype wasn't even more than it was, to be honest.

I think that Henri's biggest issue was the northerly shear being stronger than the models predicted from Friday night through most of Saturday. The way Henri looked Saturday morning on visible was reminiscent of Bob 1991 right when that storm cranked to 115 mph. Had Henri strengthened into a Cat 2 or even Cat 3, despite weakening, it would have been far worse. Thankfully that didn't occur. 

Wish it did occur, but yeah.  It just couldn't organize as it made the W to N turn...can't blame dry continental air or slow movement from 40N for lack of impact. 

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It's interesting to have these operational Global numerical models in principle if not detail, all agree on a mid range RI in the Gulf...

That's an unusual and very specific collusion of modeling there Lol.    I mean, they all cough the Caribbean invest through the Yuk. Channel... and then outta nowhere mid bathtub it goes from an inverted monsoonal dent in the pressure field, to too many isobars to count in 12 to 18 hours.  I'd call that a Rapid Intensification.  Albeit out in AI day-dreaming range, these disparate technologies appear to be in a state of "Inception" on that  - ...

Ah... maybe that means the region should be watched though?

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting to have these operational Global numerical models in principle if not detail, all agree on a mid range RI in the Gulf...

That's an unusual and very specific collusion of modeling there Lol.    I mean, they all cough the Caribbean invest through the Yuk. Channel... and then outta nowhere mid bathtub it goes from an inverted monsoonal dent in the pressure field to, too many isobars to count in 12 to 18 hours.  I'd call that an Rapid Intensification.  Albeit out in AI day-dreaming range, these disparate technologies appear to be in a state of "Inception" on that  - ...

Ah... maybe that means the region should be watched though?

Going to need devine intervention from the ERC gods in order to avoid an all out calamity IMHO...that, and/or a fortuitous track over the marshland of SW LA.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Going to need devine intervention from the ERC gods in order to avoid an all out calamity IMHO...that, and/or a fortuitous track over the marshland of SW LA.

I've been wondering something that only a dweeb like me probably would with my shimmering gallery in mediocrity for a life ... that while wild fires rage, and heat waves out shine even GW it seems ... nothing has really happened in the Caribbean and Gulf.

That region - in that sense ... - has a surplus of stored potential energy.  We have to keep the systems in equilibrium, or boats will eventually 'float through the air' and end up crushing a canal through the boat house rooves next to the marinas ...

I think of the vastness of Earth's various natural Geological systems - to wit, the atmosphere is a part despite being air and above said ground .. - as kind of having a storm budget or climate.  It's just that said 'climate' has never been codified.  We only think of climate parameters as temperature, cloud vs sun days, mean wind ..etc.  But, there is, in reality, a kind of statistical normal for all these events.  

Every region is assaulted ( or masturbated with ...depending on one's perspectives ) a certain number of snow storms or hurricanes, and if they do not get one, those governing physics that would normally cause them are like batteries left fully charged as crude metaphor.

So a lot of unnecessary poetry to describe a post that could have simply read, "that region has stored energy so a big bomb in that region may result"

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've been wondering something that only a dweeb like me probably would with my shimmering gallery in mediocrity for a life ... that while wild fires rage, and heat waves out shine even GW it seems ... nothing has really happened in the Caribbean and Gulf.

That region - in that sense ... - has a surplus of stored potential energy.  We have to keep the systems in equilibrium, or boats will eventually 'float through the air' and end up crushing a canal through the boat house next to the marinas ...

I think of the vastness of Earth's various natural Geological systems - to wit, the atmosphere is a part despite being air and above said ground .. - as kind of having a storm budget or climate.  It's just that said 'climate' has never been codified.  We only think of climate parameters as temperature, cloud vs sun days, mean wind ..etc.  But, there is, in reality, a kind of statistical normal for all these events.  

Every region is assaulted ( or masturbated with ...depending on one's perspectives ) a certain number of snow storms or hurricanes, and if they do not get one, those governing physics that would normally cause them are like batteries left fully charged as crude metaphor.

So a lot of unnecessary poetry to describe a post that could have simply read, "that region has stored energy so a big bomb in that region may result"

Gee...that is unlike you, thought no one ever.

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34 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Does this stored energy carry over from season to season as well?

It's a good question ...

There is an ACE parameter defined for seasonal activity. Sort of an on-going monitoring amid the oceanic basin.

It's a kind of season's legacy reported in aggregate energy use.  'Accumulated Cyclone Energy,' and if a given season results in low returns, that might carry over.   Because principle, ...what goes into quantifying the ACE measurement is in fact a measure of what was 'drained' away from 'the battery' - using/referring to the previous metaphor ..

If that drainage has not taken place, than were does the energy go?    Does it store in wait?  

Now, winter seasons on the planet correct for unused energy in couple of ways. One, as the hemisphere cools in autumn into winter, there is an increase in radiative bleed-off to free space. It's just a matter of gradient - in summer hot air doesn't absorb radiation from hot sources, because they are closer to the same energy state.  In the winter, the opposite is true; the air is cold and the ocean is hot, so the air can absorb.  As the hemisphere cools in autumn the sea-surface temperatures and upper oceanic heat content do fall do to this latter circumstance.  The other way is through storm genesis near the interface of the westerlies with the subtropical ..blah blah .. so also would be Nor'easters ... mid latitude cyclones...etc, use huge stows of thermodynamic potential energy.

But, storms really are like circuitry that speeds the process of planetary equilibrium from season to season.  A low storm season, it seems logical to assess -ACE as a large potential for the next year - particularly if the winter season, for whatever complexity, is less draining.  Think of it like this,  we can wait out a gas spill and have it evaporate over several hours (radiative transfer), or, we can set it afire and remove it in a few minutes (1938).  These event necessarily and perhaps crucially help the ongoing balancing by delivering masses of air to the colder regions of the planet, that are losing mass by advecting that air S ( they are cogs in the machinery of the thermal engine, as it were ).  That's the hole parade of weather - warm --> cold.. 

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It's like looking at the last 6 or so seasons...   there's some force trying to put the finale on New Orleans City, a poor marksman shooting from afar, that scene in "The Jerk."   "He hates these cans!"

It seems before Katrina you had to go back to Camille ... 1960fuggum9, and that hit east of NOLA.  Katrina, while doing a number on the dike system there captured the media extravaganza, technically did not hit NOLA directly - no it did not!  Nor did it land fall when it was as intense and ominous and potentially 'biblical' the day(s) before when it was a category 5 hurricane.  It was in fact weakened to category 3, ... I think ER cycling was the culprit -

Anyway way, ...point being, let us not stuff a fu'ing category 5 hurricane up the Delta of Mississippi and drive a 38' storm surge topped off with seismic waves ...up the MIssissippi - 

NOLA = NO MAS

Not saying this for coveting some wanton thing. It's a warning - ... Yup.  It's all "bun" and games, until someone loses a half trillion dollars to the point of unrecoverable. 

Seriously if the "apex" event did strike, it would end that... No question. It would be whole-scale destruction so complete that any value in recompense would have to come down to an entirely new and original concept there.  

But the point of this seemingly sci-fi portend ... is really not to envision that.. but say it seems like since about 6 years ago, that region of the Gulf has been blasted by 20 Cat 4 monsters or better in the models, but have really only occurred 3 or so lesser gods over primarily barren bayou country just out of harms way.

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