Chrisrotary12 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 https://mobile.twitter.com/MetMikeWCVB/status/1429592447093465104 Two hurricanes? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: https://mobile.twitter.com/MetMikeWCVB/status/1429592447093465104 Two hurricanes? I guess they “were” hurricanes at some point in their lives . Wankum caught wankin the truth a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 10 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: https://mobile.twitter.com/MetMikeWCVB/status/1429592447093465104 Two hurricanes? I refuse to use twitter otherwise I'd respond to him on that... More evidence of problems with the media right there. Two hurricanes my ass, lets hype a little more, shall we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I refuse to use twitter otherwise I'd respond to him on that... More evidence of problems with the media right there. Two hurricanes my ass, lets hype a little more, shall we Well they were once hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 The one that just came off Africa was pretty evident as a player to me. TPC just decided to Invest on that. It's presently defined by decent cyclostrophic generalized motion in the vicinity of very cold cloud tops - two aspect the enthusiast likes to see collocated: cyclonic motion + cold cloud tops. And with robust regenerative convection. 97L I feel is the redder herring of the two. My experience over the recent years, those types of K.H. lop over gyres, such that this one is, tend to get picked up and developed by guidance over anxiously. They are also by proximity a bit close to SAL contamination, too. It is like they are large but lack coupling to the oceanic heat content. Nevertheless, they've upped to 40% on that in the mid range... I think "98 L"?, by virtue of being so far S and in a region of straight W-E apparent steering has the better environment. It's out-of-the-gate structure appears better as well. It is also deeper in the favorable U/A velocities anomaly region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 I would watch the gulf by the weekend and Caribbean and SE coast by mid next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 18 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: https://mobile.twitter.com/MetMikeWCVB/status/1429592447093465104 Two hurricanes? He right there on the graphic says Tropical storms. Thats my hometown, ground zero for 38 and 54 hurricanes and worst damage in RI from Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He right there on the graphic says Tropical storms. Thats my hometown, ground zero for 38 and 54 hurricanes and worst damage in RI from Sandy look at the header of the graphic. It clearly says "Two Hurricane Paths". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Unsure where it gathered the polarward drift - I'd take that probably corrected SW of that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 2 hours ago, SJonesWX said: look at the header of the graphic. It clearly says "Two Hurricane Paths". Well they were Hurricanes but clearly delineated as Tropical storms at LF. Look at any hurricane they are labeled as hurricane tracks, Tropical storms are labeled as Tropical storm tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 Henri delayed it, but soon I’m going to get my annual peak season forecast out (Aug 20-Oct 20). I’m as bullish as I’ve ever been which is nuts because the last few seasons have had extraordinarily hot peaks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Henri delayed it, but soon I’m going to get my annual peak season forecast out (Aug 20-Oct 20). I’m as bullish as I’ve ever been which is nuts because the last few seasons have had extraordinarily hot peaks. So I’m taking it you’re thinking we’re not done here with tropical systems in SNE this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2021 Author Share Posted August 24, 2021 32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So I’m taking it you’re thinking we’re not done here with tropical systems in SNE this season? I think we get one more threat, but that’s all speculation. I do believe some of the models showing anomalous SE Canada ridging which obviously was just critical to our landfall. Unsurprisingly, there’s a greater chance of impact in the US there are more TCs, and I don’t think numbers will be an issue this year, even with a cooler MDR than some recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 On 8/22/2021 at 6:17 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: The next time we get a real storm to come through no one is going to listen. Especially eastern Mass. I agree. The hype by tv anchors and on air Mets was way over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Obviously the US as a whole is far from done with tropical season, but we in the NE are not done either. Henri may have been a warm up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Henri delayed it, but soon I’m going to get my annual peak season forecast out (Aug 20-Oct 20). I’m as bullish as I’ve ever been which is nuts because the last few seasons have had extraordinarily hot peaks. Completely agree. The dew talk is on borrowed time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Nope ... because of Henri, you now have to wait 30 years. weeee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nope ... because of Henri, you now have to wait 30 years. weeee Nope..not true with the expansion of the Hadley cell....you can choose to delude yourself by refusing to believe it if you wish, but there is peer reviewed material on the matter. Not published by myself, but if it were, it would be a hell of a lot longer. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nope..not true with the expansion of the Hadley cell....you can choose to delude yourself by refusing to believe it if you wish, but there is peer reviewed material on the matter. Not published by myself, but if it were, it would be a hell of a lot longer. well played ... but unfortunately, this is a metaphysical approach - honestly...get with the program. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I agree. The hype by tv anchors and on air Mets was way over the top. I'm surprised the hype wasn't even more than it was, to be honest. I think that Henri's biggest issue was the northerly shear being stronger than the models predicted from Friday night through most of Saturday. The way Henri looked Saturday morning on visible was reminiscent of Bob 1991 right when that storm cranked to 115 mph. Had Henri strengthened into a Cat 2 or even Cat 3, despite weakening, it would have been far worse. Thankfully that didn't occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's over I think the gulf and Caribbean as well as “just off east coast will be the hot spots for development 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think the gulf and Caribbean as well as “just off east coast will be the hot spots for development Home grown ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's over Recipe for a low ACE season relative to activity level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Recipe for a low ACE season relative to activity level. So you disagree with him ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 I'm seeing a tendency/ ...reticence in the guidance to develop anything very robustly until after D8 ..9 Meanwhile 98 L is impressive in higher res vis imagery, with clear mid level cyclonic motion to the general region, as well as occasionally revealing tigher llv whirl(s). It's not hard to sense there is shear stress from the E ..but I'm not sure that is the entire limiting factor in the nearer ( 2 -day) time frame, as the wave and attendant low pressure are presently carving their way through a fairly vivid presentation out of Wisc site/ SAL region, which can be seen here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time= Then... there is a general +OMEGA anomaly beginning ...or attempting to sweep throughout the Basin https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml I've seen TC survive those downward VP times before ... but usually they are further along in development and sort of carve their way through those two by just having cyclone-centric UVM that moats itself off/nucleated circulation ... like 'disconnected' from that particular larger scale limitation, once it is established. 98L isn't there, but ..it does have a couple days to get its act together before those VP's arrive. It's also possible that the VP layout itself could change. Either way, I suspect this is the reason the models developing stuff but really suppressing their strength during the period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So you disagree with him ? IDK, I don't to long range tropical stuff....but I agree that neg NAO patterns generally favor recurcves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: IDK, I don't to long range tropical stuff....but I agree that neg NAO patterns generally favor recurcves. Except Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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