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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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BOX 

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
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14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

E3483184-A141-46DE-BF70-56388CE55E86.png

Applying basic rules of cutting back max gusts, I would still suspect TS warnings need to become a possibility by this afternoon’s cycle.

 

crazy to even think that we’re about to see back to back years with a landfalling TC somewhere in the megalopolis. 

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The Euro's evolution between NE Georgia and NJ doesn't make a lot of theoretical sense.

It not only maintains a tropical nucleus it even intensifies it through the upper 980 mbs - how?  why?

It may be that it is tapping into the synoptic mechanics and sort of hybridizing the cyclone with both, somehow utilizing both kinematic forcing -

It'll be interesting to see if a 987 mb low situates thru the NY BIte at 60 hours.  It's weird optics because the previous charts has it weaker, then ...suddenly it is stronger as it nears "cold water" - hello? There really isn't much in the way if at all, supportive OHC in that region.  If this circulation was spreading out and structurally showing signs of transitioning -

I dunno. Between this model's in-general performance blindness wrt TC initiation, then later on it sells us these idiosyncrasies, I think that organization has work to do.

The GFS, despite its own distractions, would fit better with theory and practice.  This thing should be absorbing into the baroclinic tapestry as a smear up along the M/A given that trajectory and longevity over land - not being superbly structured coming in isn't helping either.

 

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The Euro's evolution between NE Georgia and NJ doesn't make a lot of theoretical sense.

It not only maintains a tropical nucleus it even intensifies it through the upper 980 mbs - how?  why?

It may be that it is tapping into the synoptic mechanics and sort of hybridizing the cyclone with both, somehow utilizing both kinematic forcing -

It'll be interesting to see if a 987 mb low situates thru the NY BIte at 60 hours.  It's weird optics because the previous charts has it weaker, then ...suddenly it is stronger as it nears "cold water" - hello? There really isn't much in the way if at all, supportive OHC in that region.  If this circulation was spreading out and structurally showing signs of transitioning -

I dunno. Between this model's in-general performance blindness wrt TC initiation, then later on it sells us these idiosyncrasies, I think that organization has work to do.

The GFS, despite its own distractions, would fit better with theory and practice.  This thing should be absorbing into the baroclinic tapestry as a smear up along the M/A given that trajectory and longevity over land - not being superbly structured coming in isn't helping either.

 

6z NAM, 00z Euro, and 6z RGEM all had a similar track. I agree with you that physically it doesn't seem like the occam's razor solution, but when models from different agencies and physics start to align I take a little more notice...but your thinking is still in the back of my head.

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8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Just nothing near what Isaias was please. 

No real reason to really think that this will touch what happened there (think the winter-like jet that was so prevalent with Isaias) but somewhere on the immediate coasts/just inland gets whacked. Max gusts probably around 70 for a time Friday morning. Everyone else inland sees at most 30-50, less the further in one goes.

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