MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is west at 0z Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I'll be interested if the euro shows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'll be interested if the euro shows it It doesn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gfs into SE MA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Euro continues to have no semblance of a storm, but the eps at 500 seems west too. Tough to tell. Still think it’s a fish storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs into SE MA lol 5am disco from NHC does make note of it and states that New England coast should keep an eye on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs into SE MA lol Just west of Narr Bay on the 6z would be pretty bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs into SE MA lol 6z holds. Just a tick west from 00z and makes direct LF on Rhode Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just west of Narr Bay on the 6z would be pretty bad. Bob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Bob. Wouldn’t this be coming at a different angle than Bob did? One thing I will say living in S FL, when storms are nearby you need to pay attention, there is not much time to prep as one would think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Wouldn’t this be coming at a different angle than Bob did? One thing I will say living in S FL, when storms are nearby you need to pay attention, there is not much time to prep as one would think. Similarly NNE motion but Bob was a Bahamas home brew. 6 Z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just west of Narr Bay on the 6z would be pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Floods for ern ct into SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 EMAATT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gotta say if there is a landfall in SNE Bastardi called it. 06z GFS is beast by SNE standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Pluffmud said: Gotta say if there is a landfall in SNE Bastardi called it. 06z GFS is beast by SNE standards. LOL. When every storm is a blizzard and every hurricane has a potential landfall on the east coast, sooner or later he could be right!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Even Noyes admitting this has a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Oh boy o boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 May be able to get this as far west as track up CTRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Floods for ern ct into SNH On the west side only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL. When every storm is a blizzard and every hurricane has a potential landfall on the east coast, sooner or later he could be right!!!! Yeah he is way overdue to be right on hurricane landfall in New England. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: May be able to get this as far west as track up CTRV With Ryan on vacation in Europe? Imagine his melt? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Hoth said: With Ryan on vacation in Europe? Imagine his melt? Would be classic ! Him in speedos while we cane 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would be classic ! Him in speedos while we cane Cyclonic gyrations here, crotch gyrations there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 JB says game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Cyclonic gyrations here, crotch gyrations there? Lol. Lightning bolts lightning up junk ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: JB says game on Your boy Margusity says yes. He’s the kiss of death . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 JB gone Anthony wild JBGAW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 The story of Henri in two gifs GEFS last 8 runs Operational GFS last 8 runs It's easy to see the 500h changes here, and it's been similar across the guidance--even the Euro/EPS which tries its hardest to effectively kill Henri as it's making its turn to the west has been adjusting a bit to a steering pattern where we see a trough try to capture rather than kick Henri as it ends its westward jog and turns northward as ridging over eastern Canada seals off an escape route to the NE. In fact, the guidance has been playing catch up IMO from forecasting TC genesis to now, with Henri consistently more organized and further south/west than forecasts. Doesn't mean it'll stay that way, but it can have significant downstream implications. Although the location of Henri's development and potential northward swing is almost totally outside climatology from what I've seen with regard to how we get our storms (they're usually deeper in the tropics and CVs), the potential steering pattern fits the method of how we tend to see our TC impacts with ridging over SE Canada and troughing in the Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic. Again, even the operational Euro (note the EPS were the first to hint at a East Coast threat days ago before pulling back) in its last four 00z runs have trended toward a similar 500h look that lends itself to a close call or direct impact. The signal looks legit to me, but 5 days out I know a lot can change. I'm watching 1) whether the south/west trend continues as Henri runs into a more favorable environment the next 12 hours that will make it more resilient when it encounters more northerly shear later tonight, 2) whether the trough continues to be oriented in a way that creates a capture rather than a kick, and 3) whether the ridge continues to become more pronounced on guidance. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now