WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: still wouldn't be overly exciting Not really worth discussing more since the Ukie has been bad with tropical this season IMO (though all the models have had their bad moments), but Henri is far stronger on the higher resolution Ukmet. I really do think OTS is most likely, but I wouldn’t say it’s a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for any type of impact here. The models have really struggled this season as a whole. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Usually I'd love to track something like Henri, but we're going to Couit next week. So he can kindly eff-off... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats sunken German U-Boats. You’ll get your 1938 redux from a Bermuda low the models couldn’t sniff out until it developed and like it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Ukie 965 on Saturday pm well off the Delmarva along 69W can hear the swells breaking already by Newport mansions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ukie 965 on Saturday pm well off the Delmarva along 69W can hear the swells breaking already by Newport mansions Hairy Italian men from eastern CT body surfing in front of Taylor Swift's house? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Let me just be clear. I’m less concerned with what the models show and more intrigued by the broader trend so far, which has been more west/strong in the presence of a ridge/trough pairing that if positioned and timed right could make things more interesting. Given the environment, while highly unlikely at the moment, there is a window for something more interesting if things align. Obviously two different setups but Grace went from a S FL 5 day NHC forecast to a Bay of Campeche forecast in 48 hours. That’s the exception to the rule but it’s a reminder that track and intensity forecasting in tropical is still really hard in complex setups when models are playing catch up to the actual environmental conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not really worth discussing more since the Ukie has been bad with tropical this season IMO (though all the models have had their bad moments), but Henri is far stronger on the higher resolution Ukmet. I really do think OTS is most likely, but I wouldn’t say it’s a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for any type of impact here. The models have really struggled this season as a whole. it's worth discussing i enjoy watching the storm form and develop....unfortunately there will be little or no impacts for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not really worth discussing more since the Ukie has been bad with tropical this season IMO (though all the models have had their bad moments), but Henri is far stronger on the higher resolution Ukmet. I really do think OTS is most likely, but I wouldn’t say it’s a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for any type of impact here. The models have really struggled this season as a whole. I really do think Scooter playing the rest of his life out as a male is most likely, but I wouldn't say its a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for Allison to allow his outtie to convert to an innie. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I really do think Scooter playing the rest of his life out as a male is most likely, but I wouldn't say its a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for Allison to allow his outtie to convert to an innie. I'm done with kids, start the process now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'm done with kids, start the process now? Don't get me wrong, I know you are likely to remain a dude, but models have struggled this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get me wrong, I know you are likely to remain a dude, but models have struggled this season. HWRF turned me into 1995 Carmen Electra by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Euro takes Henri well east of the Cape, but an ULL trough digging and some of the moisture from this system arrive in time to shat on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HWRF turned me into 1995 Carmen Electra by Friday. Its worth watching, as I am into the science of it all....but the Euro predicts you to remain a dude while gaining 30lbs and continuing to grey. I know where my money is....... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its worth watching, as I am into the science of it all....but the Euro products you to remain a dude while gaining 30lbs and continuing to grey. I know where my money is....... Greying maybe..lol. Better not gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 That one ^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: it's nice to have dreams lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Is the HMON the Jamaican model? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: it's worth discussing i enjoy watching the storm form and develop....unfortunately there will be little or no impacts for us I just meant not worth discussing in terms of verbatim impacts here in SNE. 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I really do think Scooter playing the rest of his life out as a male is most likely, but I wouldn't say its a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for Allison to allow his outtie to convert to an innie. That’s a prickly response to my post, but that’s alright. I’m simply stating that the steering environment as currently modeled is more conducive for casual tracking and discussion than straight flushing it. I’m not calling for play by play of cherry picked operational guidance or weenie IR hallucinations. I know it’s usually HECS or bust for you but there’s a lot of marginal stuff that may not bring exciting conditions to your backyard in between that’s worth a little discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And this post makes that kind of discussion impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I just meant not worth discussing in terms of verbatim impacts here in SNE. That’s a prickly response to my post, but that’s alright. I’m simply stating that the steering environment as currently modeled is more conducive for casual tracking and discussion than straight flushing it. I’m not calling for play by play of cherry picked operational guidance or weenie IR hallucinations. I know it’s usually HECS or bust for you but there’s a lot of marginal stuff that may not bring exciting conditions to your backyard in between that’s worth a little discussion. I'm just irritated that there hasn't been anything interesting in six months...nothing personal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 "I know it’s usually HECS or bust for you but there’s a lot of marginal stuff that may not bring exciting conditions to your backyard in between that’s worth a little discussion". @WxWatcher007This last part is BS.....I track and forecast all tropical systems that have a shot at significant impact anywhere in the US. There haven't been any this season (Elsa was minimal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Something is going to have to happen relatively soon to even get close to the hype coming into this hurricane season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 EPS seems a little interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS seems a little interesting. don't be a tease lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "I know it’s usually HECS or bust for you but there’s a lot of marginal stuff that may not bring exciting conditions to your backyard in between that’s worth a little discussion". @WxWatcher007This last part is BS.....I track and forecast all tropical systems that have a shot at significant impact anywhere in the US. There haven't been any this season (Elsa was minimal). I know…you riled me up. That comment was more with regard to winter wx threats lol. In all seriousness, I always appreciate hearing your tropical thoughts. I know I sometimes come off as waffling with my tropical posts but I have two good reasons it: 1) I’ve been burned too many times making declarations, especially during my early tropical tracking days 2) I’m a lawyer and I’m trained to think and write that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: don't be a tease lol Can't say much more from the mean. Would need to see spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Let's go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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