Ginx snewx Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: That ridge is legit. Either it’d have to get poleward before te Greater Antilles to get steered into the SE or round the ridge in the Gulf and get lifted northeast by a trough like the GFS showed IMO. Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gulf GFS with a cat 3 or 4 into Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14, 2021 Author Share Posted August 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gulf Probably. Not sure it’s chugging all the way to Texas however. Really high ceiling for Grace though IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 Wonder if 12z Euro will start showing Grace a little more than 0z did. GFS definitely more bullish on it at the moment… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14, 2021 Author Share Posted August 14, 2021 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: Wonder if 12z Euro will start showing Grace a little more than 0z did. GFS definitely more bullish on it at the moment… I’d be shocked (and would toss it) if it didn’t come in stronger, at least for the next 48 hours. It should continue to organize before PR. After that TBD but that organization should tick it northward enough to miss much of DR/Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d be shocked (and would toss it) if it didn’t come in stronger, at least for the next 48 hours. It should continue to organize before PR. After that TBD but that organization should tick it northward enough to miss much of DR/Haiti. If this goes north of Hispaniola it maybe go time for S FL. I’m not convinced it clears most of Hispaniola Coast but Fred going further west seems to have left a better environment in Bahamas if Grace can “take advantage” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 14, 2021 Share Posted August 14, 2021 Cmc into the gulf also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 HWRF gone wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Yawn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: HWRF gone wild Wouldn’t be good for me but the HWRF has not been too good as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yawn. Yep. Grace seems hell bent on taking the Fred route into the Greater Antilles buzzsaw. *shrug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Shredded Elsa, Fred, and Grace (probably) not too long from now. That said, the other two managed a respectable recovery so it’s not out of the realm of possibility Grace does too, but high ceiling talk which I’ve admittedly been leading is off the table for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yawn. Need some interesting weather up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 This is total bullshit... If "Fred" is a fuggin TS that thing NE of Bermuda's a category 2 hurricane, then - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is total bullshit... If "Fred" is a fuggin TS that thing NE of Bermuda's a category 2 hurricane, then - I’m not sure what’s happened the past 2-3 years with NHC with the designations of some of these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Huh? Fred is absolutely a TS per recon data. Grace though has basically been an sharp wave from the recon flight yesterday to the recon flight that just ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Huh? Fred is absolutely a TS per recon data. Grace though has basically been an sharp wave from the recon flight yesterday to the recon flight that just ended. the impetus of snark is for the Bermuda thing... not the other way around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: the impetus of snark is for the Bermuda thing... not the other way around Ah—yeah that went over my head lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Paging @STILL N OF PIKE Future Henri looks good for some swells. 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Regardless of the direct US landfall threat this will be a prolific swell producer for the east coast. As it’s prime beach season the rip current threat will be real. Offshore hurricanes have killed dozens of people at east coast beaches over the years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 For those interested in the generality of the field and various phenomenon, Linda in the Pacific appears to have acquired a relatively rare annular structure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Paging @STILL N OF PIKE Future Henri looks good for some swells. Ahhhhhh, I was just going to post about that in here. The current track forecast will lead to a period of captured fetch during the middle of the forecast. That and proximity will lead to bigger swells then one would think from a smallish tropical storm. Any increase in intensity will lead to a pretty sizable swell event. Similar to what we saw with 95’s Felix, the last true heart of the summer beach season prolific swell producer. Generally our hurricane produced dangerous swell events happen in September after the summer crowds and resultant tourists that cannot swim have gone for the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 i'll go back to watching Gloria and Bob coverage on YouTube...it's the closest i'll get to a hurricane 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: i'll go back to watching Gloria and Bob coverage on YouTube...it's the closest i'll get to a hurricane Good call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 We'll be watching another WBZ "Remembering Bob" special next summer most likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Nice wave maker?? Or something a little more? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 I’m not sure I gave enough importance to just how small the fetch area is with Henri. As of right now it’s hard pressed to create any swell of significance for the east coast. Assuming it both strengthens and enlarges at least some swell is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Nice wave maker?? Or something a little more? Keep your eyes shut! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Henri has consistently been tracking south of most guidance, mainly due to them keeping it too weak. This has led to adjustments further west with track over time. Still low risk for a direct impact on the US east coast from NC to New England, but needs to be monitored. pic.twitter.com/WrzE3bWOAG-- Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) August 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Models definitely improved the swell outlook on last runs, thou euro was most modest with Henri development looks like the gfs sort of gives Henri a shot in the arm of additional “energy” sat am and Ukie was also significantly stronger. windy.com is a very cool site for swell , just click waves on right side of screen and then scroll thru the different model output . You can adjust a point by clicking and monitor the predicted size 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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