SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully this is the year we get a big cane up here

[dryslot]

I had 3.27" in the stratus from Elsa.

[Cyclone-68]

Is that area off the southeast coast worth investing any time into?

[ineedsnow]

Kevin is this number 1 of 2 coming? 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Kevin is this number 1 of 2 coming? 

 

 

1

[STILL N OF PIKE]

In 10 days models should be more active per M J Ventrice aka Mr CCKW 

Ill take some big dews if we can score some SE groundswell for days .
 

Love those humid Days w near calm wind and watching the swells roll into the surf zone out of nowhere , reminds me of Late summer in Florida 

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS has the cane again

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[WxWatcher007]

A 384hr op image is nonsense, but the signal for some TC genesis in the MDR is legitimately there on the ensemble guidance. 

[Hoth]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A 384hr op image is nonsense, but the signal for some TC genesis in the MDR is legitimately there on the ensemble guidance. 

Hope you're caught up on sleep. I suspect we'll be up for late night model runs at some point in the next month or two.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Hope you're caught up on sleep. I suspect we'll be up for late night model runs at some point in the next month or two.

I've been making a point to sleep (though work has been getting in the way) because I know it's impossible for me to get more than a few hours when a threat is on the table. Hopefully I can get in at least one more chase this season. 

There's a good signal for late August to be active, which doesn't always happen. I'm expecting the peak to be well above average but just shy of hyperactive. IMO the SST profile in the MDR is the reason why. That said, the basin is heating up. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Obviously y'all been onto this fledgling signal for a few days ...all credits duly conferred etc etc..

But, this morning behold!  We bear witness to an occurrence seldom ever observed.  It's the operational Euro model that sees a TC, most importantly  before it actually exists. 

The Euro model is funny like that. It's like the Johnny Come Lately model. It does none of the work but then tells everyone how the shows going to go once they've tediously grind it out and succeeded in finally producing the thing.

But here ... it seems the Euro cluster is leading that production effort.  As Ineedsnow was nice enough to post there's been ensemble clatter; this time the operational version looks CV caney even. 

Seriously, it's weird though...the MJO numerics are not in favor of this, yet the 200mb velocity anomalies are.

Christ... yet again, a large scale planetary 'reasonably' dependable statistical method appears to be operating/signaling in fracture. ...maybe.  I mean the CMC has no clue right now, and that model has always dependably incapable of handling the temptation of so much as a cumulus cloud out there without creating a black hole that sucks the Earth completely into a Cat 7 singularity... The fact that it doesn't see anything at al - a lot of all this is performance asynchronous coming/considering these disparate sources.

Interesting test for the Euro cluster -

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually .. hm.   I might have been a bit too damped in my interpretation of the MJO wave.

It's just that the RMM diagram is a mess right now.  The individual models vs their ensemble are making cobwebs out of the plots. I was too focused on the recent verified weak wave propagation through the Phase 4-6 region that is typically correlated with hurricane toxicology heh.  But at closer look and fairness, there presently a 'weak' emergent signal going on circa late phase 8 -2 ... That region does tend to corroborate better with Atlantic deep layer mechanics.  Namely ... tending to lowering shear over all with upper level divergence. But emphasize weak... I mean it's a paltry signal - so far.  It could get stronger.  The PDF guys wrote that 

Personally I wonder if the MJO as forcing larger scale phenomenon is being rattled by the HC shit too - but that's another popsicle headache. I mean, over the years I see them making statements like this a lot,

"...• Other modes, including a Kelvin wave that moved ahead of the main MJO convective envelope
and is now over the East Pacific and the low frequency state over the Pacific are increasingly
interfering with the MJO signal...." 

A statement from last week. We'll see what they think tomorrow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

 

what's interesting for me as this product's loop demos ..there are actually two TCs in genesis and tow through the basin over the course.

that seems like a so-what in a vacuum, but i've noticed over the years - anecdotally ... - that TCs that succeed the journey without being pulled N and getting gobbled up by the westerlies early,  seem to be preceded by a separate entity out ahead - sort of clearing and prepping the land for the road crew. ha. 

in this sense, it's not the lead system that we watch, it's the following one that developed a bit S and may - likely/theoretically ... - benefit from the predecessor's wake stability; it helps keep the second entity nicely/safely tucked beneath and sheltered from influences from the westerlies that 'would have otherwise' induced the earlier turn. 

sacrificial lamb, so that the 2nd system Maria's it's way up into the western Basin

[Ginx snewx]

Who would have even imagined the tropics heating up mid August.  These pros kill me

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-season-set-to-ramp-up.html

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-season-set-to-ramp-up.html

Great stuff. I’m still riding above normal but short of hyperactive.

I don’t really take much of a position right now on the predominant steering pattern in September/October but the pattern certainly looks ripe for August. We’ll see if that second wave is able to develop.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Great stuff. I’m still riding above normal but short of hyperactive.

I don’t really take much of a position right now on the predominant steering pattern in September/October but the pattern certainly looks ripe for August. We’ll see if that second wave is able to develop.
 

 

If the predominate pattern of the season holds, then the east coast (not necessarily northeast) is going to have issues...that was the gist of my blog.

[WxWatcher007]

CSU updated outlook was released and no surprise an above average peak us expected despite CSU dropping overall numbers a touch. Both SSTs and shear so far this year track in between our above average and hyperactive years. 
 

 

[MJO812]

[ineedsnow]

First east coast threat?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

First east coast threat?

I wonder if the ridge gets stronger and pushes this into Caribbean 

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS was almost fun...

[WxWatcher007]

Some modest support for waves 1 & 2 on the GEFS. Virtually nothing for 92L.

[WxWatcher007]

Central Atlantic wave is now designated Invest 93L. NHC jumped the gun with the last two invests so we’ll see if the third time’s the charm.

[MJO812]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That disturbance has been shifting W over last 48 hours , seems destined to go over Hispaniola and Cuba . Seems like best bet for development would be getting into SE GOM as steering flow slows rapidly this weekend 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the equivalent of winter threads in November...blue balls abound, but not much in the offing quite yet.

[ineedsnow]

0z GFS turning 95l into a beast