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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Guidance continuously reloading a Great Lakes trough through the end of the month. If that feature sticks through August & September, we'll get a real tropical system up here.

I've been thinking about that quite a bit...especially considering how strong the Bermuda high has been off the coast and also its proximity to the U.S. Given here there is really no signs of the strong ridging in the West breaking these reloading troughs in the Great Lakes will continue 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Gotta say...this was pretty damn well forecast. Obviously the exact details had to be ironed out as we got closer but I remember last Friday the look on the models gave pretty good confidence we were going to be impacted. 

Started talking about potential in my group chat on June 22. Obviously there’s a ton that happens between  speculation and game time but sometimes these signals are as solid as it gets. 

Makes it all the more frustrating that the Euro ensembles are really struggling with TC genesis signals even at very short range. Makes blending much more difficult IMO.

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Yeah again .. this weird, fast end was on the wall when the lashing was giddy with posts in here 2 hours ago.

The thing decoupled from the tropical air mass it was toting up the EC with around that time, and almost immediately, ground truth was lighter than Nexrad. 

Plus, subtly less on sat... while holes opened up in the rain.  Basically, we sort of had the last 2 of this low-ball

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Started talking about potential in my group chat on June 22. Obviously there’s a ton that happens between  speculation and game time but sometimes these signals are as solid as it gets. 

Makes it all the more frustrating that the Euro ensembles are really struggling with TC genesis signals even at very short range. Makes blending much more difficult IMO.

completely agreed...when you start seeing glaring signals and those signals remain consistent it kinda starts to open eyes. You look at SST's off the coast (and correlate that to SSTA's) and things are beginning to cook. 

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