Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gf’s moves toward euro at 12z Ironic as this was named a cane this am. Hurricane hunters still find a decoupled LLC and MLC so I’m very interested to see if this craps out tonite lends credence to my PR hypothesis in NHC - I don't like it either. I realize their charge is to inform officials/ media, but it shouldn't be their charge to protect people by goosing attention awareness. That's on the officials and media - I dunno - don't wanna be in the habit of impugning them, but this thing is dubious like so many other cyclones that near population and suddenly get a kick up in category - it's enough of a coherent pattern. Just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: lends credence to my PR hypothesis in NHC - I don't like it either. I realize their charge is to inform officials/ media, but it shouldn't be their charge to protect people by goosing attention awareness. That's on the officials and media - I dunno - don't wanna be in the habit of impugning them, but this thing is dubious like so many other cyclones that near population and suddenly get a kick up in category - it's enough of a coherent pattern. Just sayn' I would tend to agree with that assessment This “looks” to me to clearly be losing organization and strength last couple hours Let’s see what strength can be squeezed out or Recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Last recon pass 996 . No shock HRWF still believes in it being a major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Thursday and Friday... Plenty of uncertainty with this portion of the forecast, namely how and if the remnants of Hurricane Elsa may impact southern New England. With a broad trough over the Great Lakes and subtropical high in the Atlantic, there is potential that the remnants of Elsa could pass somewhere in our vicinity around Thu/Fri. Whether we get anything more than 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Thursday and Friday... Plenty of uncertainty with this portion of the forecast, namely how and if the remnants of Hurricane Elsa may impact southern New England. With a broad trough over the Great Lakes and subtropical high in the Atlantic, there is potential that the remnants of Elsa could pass somewhere in our vicinity around Thu/Fri. Whether we get anything more than Euro took a step toward the GFS with a westward shift and brings a decent low up verbatim. Still a long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Cuba will shred Ellen apart . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 …if SW Haiti doesn’t do it first… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 More gusty rains coming? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: More gusty rains coming? That wouldn’t be gusty anywhere except Stellwagwen Bank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: More gusty rains coming? Bring it on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Predicated on the assumption there is anything there lol - I see a low level core occasionally decoupled from the convection. I don't even see much evidence of westerly shear - this seems to be just storm-relative induced for having the low level flow screaming along at ludicrous speed, anything caught up in it, including this coughing Elsa is moving redic fast relative to the mid level troposphere down there. In other words, it's sort of producing a shear from that anomaly - You can thank excessive subtropical ridge strength for that - and don't get me started on what/where/why that is the case. Anyway, if this thing continues to dislocate from its stack and then goes across Cuba, it won't likely emerge enough intact then survive Florida, and those track coordinates out here in time will be tracking a theta-e plume and not much more.. becoming phantom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Bring it on Bring those dews 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 GFS I would assume be Hydro concerns for NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Ggem is a bit NW too. Looks wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Euro is a scraper, gets it down to 988 off the Cape 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Let’s get something My sister and her family are in Spring Hill, Fl (20M north of Tampa) and I’m heading to either Newport, RI / Or Cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Woah obviously overdone but Cape needs to watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Hurricane models at our latitude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hurricane models at our latitude Gusty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 My sister in law and brother in law just moved to Holiday Florida they look to be in the spot for the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 6Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Probably another big rain. This time a muggy type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Probably another big rain. This time a muggy type. I stopped getting the other kind of rain like 12 years ago. Yeah welcome to the club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: My sister in law and brother in law just moved to Holiday Florida they look to be in the spot for the worst That’s about 15 miles SSW of my sister in Spring Hill . I would anticipate tons of rain and multiple gusts in the 50’s. Not much more than that for this vertically tilted mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 https://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Dan said: https://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/ South side of circulation always insanely windy also known as the inflow sector. I had this with Isaias but the Eastern quadrant was just as bad. That was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Euro brings Ellie over either far SE CT or RI. Hard to see exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro brings Ellie over either far SE CT or RI. Hard to see exactly Now that's a lot of damage. Just not for Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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