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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gf’s moves toward euro at 12z

Ironic as this was named a cane this am. Hurricane hunters still find a decoupled LLC and MLC so I’m very interested to see if this craps out tonite 

lends credence to my PR hypothesis in NHC -

I don't like it either.  I realize their charge is to inform officials/ media, but it shouldn't be their charge to protect people by goosing attention awareness.  That's on the officials and media -

I dunno - don't wanna be in the habit of impugning them, but this thing is dubious like so many other cyclones that near population and suddenly get a kick up in category - it's enough of a coherent pattern.  Just sayn'

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6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

lends credence to my PR hypothesis in NHC -

I don't like it either.  I realize their charge is to inform officials/ media, but it shouldn't be their charge to protect people by goosing attention awareness.  That's on the officials and media -

I dunno - don't wanna be in the habit of impugning them, but this thing is dubious like so many other cyclones that near population and suddenly get a kick up in category - it's enough of a coherent pattern.  Just sayn'

I would tend to agree with that assessment 

This “looks” to me to clearly be losing organization and strength last couple hours 

Let’s see what strength can be squeezed out or Recon 

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Thursday and Friday...

Plenty of uncertainty with this portion of the forecast, namely how
and if the remnants of Hurricane Elsa may impact southern New
England. With a broad trough over the Great Lakes and subtropical
high in the Atlantic, there is potential that the remnants of Elsa
could pass somewhere in our vicinity around Thu/Fri. Whether we get
anything more than
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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:
Thursday and Friday...

Plenty of uncertainty with this portion of the forecast, namely how
and if the remnants of Hurricane Elsa may impact southern New
England. With a broad trough over the Great Lakes and subtropical
high in the Atlantic, there is potential that the remnants of Elsa
could pass somewhere in our vicinity around Thu/Fri. Whether we get
anything more than

Euro took a step toward the GFS with a westward shift and brings a decent low up verbatim. Still a long way to go though. 

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Predicated on the assumption there is anything there  lol -  

I see a low level core occasionally decoupled from the convection.  I don't even see much evidence of westerly shear - this seems to be just storm-relative induced for having the low level flow screaming along at ludicrous speed, anything caught up in it, including this coughing Elsa is moving redic fast relative to the mid level troposphere down there.  In other words, it's sort of producing a shear from that anomaly - 

You can thank excessive subtropical ridge strength for that - and don't get me started on what/where/why that is the case.

Anyway, if this thing continues to dislocate from its stack and then goes across Cuba, it won't likely emerge enough intact then survive Florida, and those track coordinates out here in time will be tracking a theta-e plume and not much more.. becoming phantom

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

My sister in law and brother in law just moved to Holiday Florida they look to be in the spot for the worst

That’s about 15 miles SSW of my sister in Spring Hill . I would anticipate tons of rain and multiple gusts in the 50’s. Not much more than that for this vertically tilted mess

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