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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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Sun's out  ....

 

.... in Hartford CT by 4pm maybe?     Looking at everything there's a back/underside subsidence ring and at least partly sunny over eastern PA/N NJ with a back edge rollin' right up with this thing's motion suggestive by looping.  

I'm also hoping that the center passes over Logan so we can watch the BD air mass die by slip knotted wind - alas it prolly passes SE of there. just sayn'

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sun's out  ....

 

.... in Hartford CT by 4pm maybe?     Looking at everything there's a back/underside subsidence ring and at least partly sunny over eastern PA/N NJ with a back edge rollin' right up with this thing's motion suggestive by looping.  

I'm also hoping that the center passes over Logan so we can watch the BD air mass die by slip knotted wind - alas it prolly passes SE of there. just sayn'

yeah I'm thinking parts of CT see some sun by 3-4 PM and then we see how much we can destabilize and watch to see if a line of showers and thunderstorms can materialize for the early evening 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah I'm thinking parts of CT see some sun by 3-4 PM and then we see how much we can destabilize and watch to see if a line of showers and thunderstorms can materialize for the early evening 

Those side lit crispies in the lingering Bahamian type air would be pretty illuminated while looming over their blue-gray bellies and charcoal dense rain curtains.

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Yeah...that's a good point about backside breeze...

I don't know if an actual sting jet really materializes, though.  Sure, it certainly parrots one in that look.  - the thing is .. in the stricter sense the stinger is an upper level entrained jet and I'm not sure this one has that structural component - but other physical processes support the presence of one, despite not being there - sort of 'mimics' one doing so?   Bottom line, not sure where the sting's momentum comes from.

What it does have - I'm thinking - is a bit of an isallobaric wind acceleration potential - how much... how little so.  The compact structure of the lower pressure layout it, ..well, firstly it is not over-impressively deep. But still, it doesn't have to be very deep if the actual gradient is steep by virtue of being very curved, which is this clearly is. SO, 1001 mb back to standard sea level or more can do some interesting gusts perhaps.

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Looks like we're starting to wrap around some of that stronger LLJ...some stronger winds being sampled with that band moving through southeastern CT and phasing in with the band over 84. May certainly see some gusts 35-45 mph within that...nothing crazy but given the wet grounds could certainly knock some weakened trees or limbs down. 

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25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't know who said this was moving slow its hauling azz NE at 30 mph+

After sitting under the same 1+ an hour rain band for over three hours it sure doesn’t feel like it was moving fast.  It’s definitely moving now though.

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