ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah not for that area. I think that is far fetched here. Expand It is interesting that low is showing up now on the Euro bring that a little southwest and oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah not for that area. I think that is far fetched here. Expand Unless the ensembles make a notable shift, these op runs are just pretty to look at and wonder what could be here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 I wonder if Sam not exploding in intensity like it was supposed too (yet) earlier has to do with these further west solutions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 GEPS has a few members with the big left hook not surprising though seeing the op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah not for that area. I think that is far fetched here. Expand Going to need some work for sure. West and south track adjustments and benchmarks in the short/med range, maybe on the faster edge of the envelope...combined with some slight adjustments N and W with that closed low near the tidewater VA area by D7-8, we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:03 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Unless the ensembles make a notable shift, these op runs are just pretty to look at and wonder what could be here. Expand Even the ensembles can be wrong this far out. Long ways to go and good practice for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:17 PM, MJO812 said: Even the ensembles can be wrong this far out. Long ways to go and good practice for the winter. Expand I loathe winter tracking so this is my regular season. Agree about the ensembles but they lead the way to the “right” solution more often than not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 99L going to be a factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:34 PM, ineedsnow said: 99L going to be a factor? Expand Already is the case. Who knows if it gets stronger than expected that could mess with the ridge in either direction mostly in the bad. (if you don't want impacts) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 12z EPS has some really interesting members now definitely a notable shift 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 6:53 PM, Cyclone-68 said: I’m going to enjoy this run until a met comes in and decides to ruin my hopes and dreams Expand took about 6 minutes. On 9/24/2021 at 7:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah not for that area. I think that is far fetched here. Expand 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 8:08 PM, Torch Tiger said: Expand 1938 seemed to have longitude in it's favor. This one is going to be a lot further east to start, pulling it back is going to be tougher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 8:21 PM, SouthCoastMA said: 1938 seemed to have longitude in it's favor. This one is going to be a lot further east to start, pulling it back is going to be tougher. Expand I wasn't trying to say 38 is coming. If it's farther east it could be a problem for NB/NS or beyond. Interesting background similarities there, at least it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah not for that area. I think that is far fetched here. Expand Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:33 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I loathe winter tracking so this is my regular season. Agree about the ensembles but they lead the way to the “right” solution more often than not. Expand At least winter tracking bares fruit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 8:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least winter tracking bares fruit Expand I hear you. I have the benefit of being able to chase US tropical, so for a good enough event I can personally see the tracking payoff. I would have been in Louisiana for Ida if I didn’t have a family commitment I couldn’t move. I enjoy whatever falls in winter, but the older I get the more big dog or bust I become. I can’t muster the energy to track minor winter stuff closely anymore, but I get it though—I track Atlantic swirls before they’re even invests lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 8:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least winter tracking bares fruit Expand Justice for Henri 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 11:48 PM, Torch Tiger said: Justice for Henri Expand That wasn't fruit, it was bile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 12:07 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That wasn't fruit, it was bile. Expand 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 yikes, more like early/ mid-September SSTs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Sam starting to look kinda hawt. Eye cleared out quick this afternoon. Strong candidate to fish, but Ray being in Africa increases our odds of a '38 repeat enormously. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Tickle tickle ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 NAO is going negative Will this impact the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 0z GFS doesn’t seem to have the cutoff low at all. It’s not a recurve out to sea but rather it’s due north into Canada, very safely away from the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 4:34 AM, Sn0waddict said: 0z GFS doesn’t seem to have the cutoff low at all. It’s not a recurve out to sea but rather it’s due north into Canada, very safely away from the NE. Expand Same with the CMC. Comically different. Which means I’m sure the 0z euro will bring this right into NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 4:46 AM, Sn0waddict said: Same with the CMC. Comically different. Which means I’m sure the 0z euro will bring this right into NYC lol Expand Long ways to go with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 4:51 AM, MJO812 said: Long ways to go with this one Expand No doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 1:21 AM, Hoth said: Sam starting to look kinda hawt. Eye cleared out quick this afternoon. Strong candidate to fish, but Ray being in Africa increases our odds of a '38 repeat enormously. Expand I don't leave until 10/8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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