Typhoon Tip Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Uganda...I went 3 years ago...Feb 2018. I did get to go on a safari and prob will again. This is more vacation...the first time, I had to gain her parent's permission to marry her and went through a whole itinerary of ceremonies/procedures. Man..you're lucky to embrace and get to experience that jeaous bro - ...although I'm sure you'll be recording the Red Sox playoff run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Man..you're lucky to embrace and get to experience that jeaous bro - ...although I'm sure you'll be recording the Red Sox playoff run lol Yea, you nailed the one aspect that I am remiss about....love baseball postseason. I may catch some of WS and will be back for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro was the first to latch onto the idea that Pete would be a waste of a name...I guess it won that bet. lol Peter shrank due to cold water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 some interesting GEFS members tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 We watch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Interesting look on the Euro at the end of the run. As George Costanza would say, "I think it moved!" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Peter shrank due to cold water... hate when that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 6 hours ago, ineedsnow said: We watch! If one is a morally responsible mentality storm enthusiast ( heh ...) you should prefer the southern envelope of those solutions in this graphic above. Those are through the "key slot" climo. The ones along and polar side of that thick, black mean track, as history has shown, those tracks slope off pretty quickly, as not going on to denuding life and structure off of LI and sending roofing material, pine bows and power lines to Montreal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 The 00z Euro ( operational ...) is almost 90th percentile ( eye-balling method ..) for concern along the EC. The confluence passing into the Maritimes, evidenced in the 500 mb synoptic evolution, is all indirectly tied to a -d(NAO), which in theory ...blocks TCs from passing seaward once they've succeeded the 'key slot' climo (60 naut mi N of PR). More over, the situation of a closed 500 mb trough over WV... mm, just needs another contour ( but may be enough ); but as is, the differential in heights between it, and NE of Bermuda, guides the track extrapolation of that hurricane pretty comfortably to a position somewhere between ROA, VA and the 70th longitude line by imagining, a-priori, a day 11 .. 13 circumstance. Unfortunately ... ( or fortunately, depending upon one's personal approach to this stuff ) that day 11 (bold) makes much of this less than entirely useful to any deterministic forecasting. But it sure is interesting to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The 00z Euro ( operational ...) is almost 90th percentile ( eye-balling method ..) for concern along the EC. The confluence passing into the Maritimes, evidenced in the 500 mb synoptic evolution, is all indirectly tied to a -d(NAO), which in theory ...blocks TCs from passing seaward once they've succeeded the 'key slot' climo (60 naut mi N of PR). More over, the situation of a closed 500 mb trough over WV... mm, just needs another contour ( but may be enough ); but as is, the differential in heights between it, and NE of Bermuda, guides the track extrapolation of that hurricane pretty comfortably to a position somewhere between ROA, VA and the 70th longitude line by imagining, a-priori, a day 11 .. 13 circumstance. Unfortunately ... ( or fortunately, depending upon one's personal approach to this stuff ) that day 11 (bold) makes much of this less than entirely useful to any deterministic forecasting. But it sure is interesting to look at! Place your bets on who will be the first to disregard all stated caveats above, and lead with "Cat 5 landfall imminent in the S.E. U.S.". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Big shift west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 The Sci Fi author in me would incline to imagine that 'near miss' capture there is an artifact of the GFS having too much beta-motion in the mid range - such that by the time it interacts with the cutting/cutoff low it's already gained to much latitude, and is able to partially escape. good sci fi errs on the side of plausibility - It's all way out there so, perhaps the best sci fi authors at this time are in fact the AI/ behind the modeling... heh. The Euro did not have as much polarward drag on its track, notable ... if still la la range. I just... I don't like very good set ups on D8 anything. It meas the only options are less ideal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 The thing I’m seeing is that the GFS is slowly trending towards the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 As someone who owns an insurance agency and hates landfalling hurricanes...this could be a nerve wracking 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, hurricaneman said: The thing I’m seeing is that the GFS is slowly trending towards the Euro Noted ... hinted above, I do wonder if the NAVGEM/GGEM/GFS are all to polar biased in the 48 to 96 hour range. Anything after that ~ range becomes academically unavailable to interest farther west ( most likely...) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Taking day 10 Euro literally...does it make a hard right at Chincoteague? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Taking day 10 Euro literally...does it make a hard right at Chincoteague? Yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yes... Very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Very close actually it isn't - there's no way that gets any closer than that... so I guess in the greater geometric comparison to the whole basin it's close in that sense but that is safely and non storied out to sea. next - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: actually it isn't - there's no way that gets any closer than that... so I guess in the greater geometric comparison to the whole basin it's close in that sense but that is safely and non storied out to see. next - 10 days out Next run will show a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 It gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It gone. What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 10 days out Next run will show a big hit Ways to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Henri may have been absolutely weak sauce, but I remember that it was similarly predicted to stay harmlessly out to sea this far out. I highly doubt there will be an impact, but we track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 We have a negative NAO We track 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2021 Author Share Posted September 23, 2021 I don’t really care about the D10 low location. What matters to me are the players on the field. So while the actual run isn’t particularly close verbatim, all I really need to see is the SE Canada ridging and possible cutoff. It’s there for now. Let’s see what’s what when it gets to the Antilles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: What The euro would be out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 That was almost a epic GFS run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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