SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021

[kdxken]

20 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

now that would be funny

Yeah we would get to rebuild New Yorkers beach houses again.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

West shift

There's two camps..the bend inward camp and the whiff. I don't think it will end up being an average of them, or near miss. It's either a hit or an easy miss. A little too early to get excited, but it has my interest piqued at least. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay... correction 1:    GFS does not actually strengthen Henri as it approaches the S. Coast and passes over the shelf waters S of LI. 

It is in fact, weakening, as it should, while passing the cyclone over those cold waters.

That helps engender confidence that it is physically handling the total manifold of environmental factors in the intensity aspects. 

However, I can aver with confidence that TC's in the weakening phase - such that the GFS's recent two cycles does so spanning some 12 hours worth - typically lift their "storm" ferocity above the land-based boundary layer.   It is very necessary for storm enthusiasts to have these moving very fast as they approach, quite literally because they do not have enough time to do that weakening prior to impacting land.  This system is moving too slowly based on that climate...

It will suck GIANT ballz for deterministic weather forecasters because now we get into residuals ...like still flooding rains and tor spins.

[Vice-Regent]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay... correction 1:    GFS does not actually strengthen Henri as it approaches the S. Coast and passes over the shelf waters S of LI. 

It is in fact, weakening, as it should, while passing the cyclone over those cold waters.

That helps engender confidence that it is physically handling the total manifold of environmental factors in handling intensity. 

However, I can aver with confidence that TC's in the weakening phase - such that the GFS's recent two cycles does so spanning some 12 hours worth - typically lift their "storm" ferocity above the land-based boundary layer.   It is very necessary for storm enthusiasts to have these moving very fast as they approach, quite literally because they do not have enough time to do that weakening prior to impacting land.  This system is moving too slowly based on climate...

It will suck GIANT ballz for deterministic weather forecasters because now we get into residuals ...like still flooding rains and tor spins.

With all due respect Mr. Typhoon Tip. We are looking at peak climatological favorability for shelf waters give or take a couple of weeks.

I am not optimistic about a slowing of the forward motion salvaging an already bad situation. Even the best of us would break down mentally when encountering untenable outcomes.

Regards

[Cyclone-68]

How about hurricane Belle in ‘76 as an analogue? Slow moving minimal hurricane moving north?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Belle

[40/70 Benchmark]

I just don't see a scenario that SNE gets hit with a hurricane.....tropical storm, maybe, but odds still favor OTS.

[ineedsnow]

Well if it hits anywhere in SNE I'll  be there

[WeatherHappens]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Well if it hits anywhere in SNE I'll  be there

charter a boat

[Typhoon Tip]

wouldn't take much tho -

If by mere subtle total mechanical inertia in the surrounding synoptic forcing, sending Henri on up, were to occur, that sending may speed up by a little.  It could just be enough - so obviously, in assessing the impact spectrum would be the speed of Henri's motion.   More gets more cyclone-winds to bend tree tops ..etc. 

Also, as others are undoubtedly focused on like a 17-year old boy on a v-cut prom date's reveal, the run to run trend has been gaining westerly longitude. 

If it comes another 100 miles at verification and speeds up by 10 mph - unusual for how it does so in total synoptic space or not, that would get more interesting really fast.

[CoastalWx]

EPS still fishy. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

With all due respect Mr. Typhoon Tip. We are looking at peak climatological favorability for shelf waters give or take a couple of weeks.

I am not optimistic about a slowing of the forward motion salvaging an already bad situation. Even the best of us would break down mentally when encountering untenable outcomes.

Regards

   The turn of phrasing you cobble out is strange to me ...

It's emotional - and I am a sociopath so I can't really understand that mode of thinking.... LOL   

Totally kidding. 

Seriously though, no -

that shit doesn't matter.  There is no 'mentally encountering untenable outcomes' - whatever that means.  I suspect it is intended to mean 'taking place whether it fit with preconception or not'?     I dunno, but there is only:

Is there enough physics to support a cyclone or not -

Nothing else. 

Now... 'peak climatology for shelf waters'     yeeeeah, okay.  If they are warmer than cooler, that "should" in principle play a factor.  But that is real ambiguous in the physics, because I - personally - don't know of any science that outright evinces that 66 vs 70 vs 74 vs 78 are better in that order, for maintaining systemic integrity of tropical cyclones that egress their supporting environment and set out upon their Death Journey like a Hopi octogenarian

[Vice-Regent]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS still fishy. 

We must be looking at different data. A robust examination of the 06z EPS would reveal a disturbing conclusion when comparing the mean sea level pressure of individual members.

[Newman]

[Cyclone-68]

I mean we’ve only had satellite since the 60’s and ob’s for 400 years so I suppose it’s possible something popped in that location before and affected us?

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just don't see a scenario that SNE gets hit with a hurricane.....tropical storm, maybe, but odds still favor OTS.

Odds always favor ots up here

[Vice-Regent]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Odds always favor ots up here

We know it can happen and it's easier to happen so the odds don't go either way really.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

That’s way west from last night . Trends are important 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS still fishy. 

I lean (haha) toward suspicion with the entire Euro product- suite.  Systemic limitation in performance -

Not initializing right.  ...seems anything after that is academically wrong

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Odds always favor ots up here

Except when they hit...I don't understand your point. I am not speaking of climo, I am referring to the forecast consensus.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Odds favor a lot of  being chucked for a multitude of reasons.  

[tiger_deF]

Smart money is on OTS, but this is the strongest, closest signal I have seen for potential TC impacts since Isaias, and the trends have been very consistently West since a few days ago

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting conclusion to the NHC DISCO:

 

 I think it's worth noting that the 
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over 
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward 
toward the New England coast.  Therefore, additional changes or 
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on 
subsequent advisories.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Smart money is on OTS, but this is the strongest, closest signal I have seen for potential TC impacts since Isaias, and the trends have been very consistently West since a few days ago

Not saying much....I'm sure this fall we will see the closest signal for snow since last spring.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting conclusion to the NHC DISCO:

 

 I think it's worth noting that the 
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over 
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward 
toward the New England coast.  Therefore, additional changes or 
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on 
subsequent advisories.

Yeah... this - for me - can be inferred by other modeling/means anyway...

no problem with that assessment and notice - even though it is still just a notice and not porn yet.   Again again again... the limitations in such a scenario are in the speed in which that happens.

It can't meander on up.  It has to move FAST

Folks that need this diversion to make their lives worth shit ...  really need to filter everything through that requirement first and not focus on the pretty illustrations of the modeling cinema like drug addicts carpet surfacing for a nugget of dystopian rush -

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Smart money is on OTS, but this is the strongest, closest signal I have seen for potential TC impacts since Isaias, and the trends have been very consistently West since a few days ago

I must be having an off-morning with cerebral processing ... what does this bold statement have to do with anything -

I keep fielding these kind of sentiments from folks and they don't bear any logic to the present.

[yoda]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

You know ( not "you," the royal 'you') ... I must say, the Tweet-osphere is designed brilliantly.

The act of Tweeting engenders new tweets, because their brevity can only incense the reader. 

They are, by virtue of being too brief, thus impossible as anything other than argumentative.

Ex, the tweet sparks a tweet storm, and then results ...however economically that works,  some kind of financial precipitation falling out with far greater density then the storm in the originally f'ing tweet.

Now, I know - or suspect anyway ... - why he pushed that 'argument' across, but only because there is a weird well-timed, transient blocking ridge that rolls around the TC, from N of Maine ...passing then SE of NS....directing Henri N instead of a NE turn like climo.   Hence, the ana prefix to the etymology of 'nominal' --> normalcy bears some usefulness to the discuss.

That's droll -

But, point is, the total Sandy model is not relavent here.  Sandy was also being captured by a full -bird early season cold trough approaching the E. It also came through the Caribbean as a zygote and intensified significanly S of Cuba ... passing over the island, and "sorta" restrengthening as it moved N, while accelerating, a behavior that is unclear at best whether Henri will do so, too.

This Henri has a fascinating history that is in fact the exact opposite of Sandy.   It started - as far as I recall ...any other sources or accounts certainly welcome - as a cluster of showers S of NS over the cold waters there. It was forced synoptically to move S... as it did over a couple/three days, it slowly got better/deeper convection nearing the g-string. As it passed over the warm sultry sexy source of heat, it finally phase transitions and then we had a depression... It has since parabolically moved back SW ...now seemingly turning W, while [ probably ] nearing or at Cat 1 status.  We'll see...   But as far as what happens going forward, there is only one real larger -scaled synoptic factor the bears resemblance to Sandy and it is - as far as I can tell - related to that blocking node behavior as mentioned above.

[Newman]

Latest 11am NHC cone continues to nudge further west

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ( not "you," the royal 'you') ... I must say, the Tweet-osphere is designed brilliantly.

The act of Tweeting engenders new tweets, because their brevity can only incense the reader. 

They are, by virtue of being too brief, thus impossible as anything other than argumentative.

Ex, the tweet sparks a tweet storm, and then results ...however economically that works,  some kind of financial precipitation falling out with far greater density then the storm in the originally f'ing tweet.

Now, I know - or suspect anyway ... - why he pushed that 'argument' across, but only because there is a weird well-timed, transient blocking ridge that rolls around the TC, from N of Maine ...passing then SE of NS....directing Henri N instead of a NE turn like climo.   Hence, the ana prefix to the etymology of 'nominal' --> normalcy bears some usefulness to the discuss.

That's droll -

But, point is, the total Sandy model is not relavent here.  Sandy was also being captured by a full -bird early season cold trough approaching the E. It also came through the Caribbean as a zygote and intensified significanly S of Cuba ... passing over the island, and "sorta" restrengthening as it moved N, while accelerating, a behavior that is unclear at best whether Henri will do so, too.

This Henri has a fascinating history that is in fact the exact opposite of Sandy.   It started - as far as I recall ...any other sources or accounts certainly welcome - as a cluster of showers S of NS over the cold waters there. It was forced synoptically to move S... as it did over a couple/three days, it slowly got better/deeper convection nearing the g-string. As it passed over the warm sultry sexy source of heat, it finally phase transitions and then we had a depression... It has since parabolically moved back SW ...now seemingly turning W, while [ probably ] nearing or at Cat 1 status.  We'll see...   But as far as what happens going forward, there is only one real larger -scaled synoptic factor the bears resemblance to Sandy and it is - as far as I can tell - related to that blocking node behavior as mentioned above.

It actually tracked across the US as an MCS that came out of Canada .. dropped down into the Atlantic and ginned up into a TS. I saw a fascinating satellite sequence of its track 

[Cyclone-68]

Will how west Henri can get have any impact on how much further north it’ll eventually get?