HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I’m thinking an Eduoard (1996) type impact. Mostly ACK but things make you go hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just one more addition, here's the reanalysis by Eric Webb of 500mb anomalies for NE hurricanes since 1900. Image courtesy of his Twitter. Note the dates at the bottom, and compare/contrast with the 500mb pattern being shown even on the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m thinking an Eduoard (1996) type impact. Mostly ACK but things make you go hmmmmm Edit. I do not think it will be nearly as strong as that storm got though. Just trackwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6z GEFS are 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 57 minutes ago, Pluffmud said: Gotta say if there is a landfall in SNE Bastardi called it. 06z GFS is beast by SNE standards. A CAT 1 is a beast by SNE standards, Pretty significant tree growth since Bob in 1991 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: A CAT 1 is a beast by SNE standards, Pretty significant tree growth since Bob in 1991 Probably too in the weeds this far out but even a weaker system could be rough given the slow (relative to climo) motion projected on the guidance would bring prolonged rain and wind, not to mention terrible timing with regard to tides this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6z hmon Looks like it would track over the cape after these frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z hmon Looks like it would track over the cape after these frames Into NYC lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Into NYC lol. Might as well shut the city down again since covid is around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m thinking an Eduoard (1996) type impact. Mostly ACK but things make you go hmmmmm Can recall that storm heading due north straight as a string for about 2 days, right toward us, then making a near-instant (for a 'cane) turn to ENE and OTS. Barely got a cloud in central Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Probably too in the weeds this far out but even a weaker system could be rough given the slow (relative to climo) motion projected on the guidance would bring prolonged rain and wind, not to mention terrible timing with regard to tides this weekend. I'd think that slower motion would be a negative signal for wind, even accounting for duration, given the rapid weakening that would occur over cooler waters. Hydro concerns might be ramped up however. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, radarman said: I'd think that slower motion would be a negative signal for wind, even accounting for duration, given the rapid weakening that would occur over cooler waters. Hydro concerns might be ramped up however. ET transition would expand and strengthen wind field 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, radarman said: I'd think that slower motion would be a negative signal for wind, even accounting for duration, given the rapid weakening that would occur over cooler waters. Hydro concerns might be ramped up however. Maybe, but depending on the track I think you'd see areas that are already fairly saturated that could see trees go down easier. Of course, if it's a CT hit expect us to be knocked back to the 18th century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: ET transition would expand and strengthen wind field Not much of that shown to be honest...not that it matters right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF now takes Henri into Nantucket as well. It'll change a million times but it definitely looks a lot more interesting than yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6z euro op continues with OTS, but a little closer to the ULL to try and sling it north....however all well SE of the Cape. If anything some moisture interaction to mess up the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 hours ago, Thunderhead1 said: For all i care that thing can stay away. Growing up I used to wish for these storms to come up here. But after being stuck without power for 4 days from Irene changed my mind. You start to get anxious and aggravated after a few days. Plus, that habit of flipping the light switch everytime you enter a room, only to remember theres no power. it's a tropical system and this is New England...you have nothing to worry about lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z euro op continues with OTS, but a little closer to the ULL to try and sling it north....however all well SE of the Cape. If anything some moisture interaction to mess up the weekend. It just seems so off to me on intensity. Henri looks like it could hold its own when it runs into that shear later, and it should have a favorable environment for a while as it parallels the coast. I know though that small systems can really get torn apart when encountering significant shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hmon pulls a sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Henri will be a cane at 5:00 PM advisory with additional strengthening overnight . SST are warm right up the Jersey. Even SSE of Cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hmon pulls a sandy now that would be funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Henri will be a cane at 5:00 PM advisory with additional strengthening overnight . SST are warm right up the Jersey. Even SSE of Cape Its not about SST....check TCHP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, mob1 said: HWRF now takes Henri into Nantucket as well. It'll change a million times but it definitely looks a lot more interesting than yesterday. Its more interesting, but still not very interesting IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Adding D26 for good measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m thinking an Eduoard (1996) type impact. Mostly ACK but things make you go hmmmmm Agree....I just mentioned Edouard as an analog on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Latest 12z Hurricane tracks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Newman said: Latest 12z Hurricane tracks West shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The Euro continues to just be perplexingly bad with tropical handling ... wow. It initialized Henri in the 00z around 1012 mb ... hello - The GFS was almost spot on, by the way. Not that anyone asked me but .. I don't believe the Euro can be trusted over anywhere between Bermuda, Cape Hatteras, and Cape Cod triangulum. It's paltry entity modulation does not seem realistic when comparing ( observable/favorable synoptic parametrics + other typically better performing modeling sources) / 2 In short: I would take a weaker system than the GFS but much more identity than the Euro, and except that the track is very anomalous and therefore some skepticism wrt to whether that aspect is being handled properly is required. In length: that said, I don't know if I would trust the very intenser modeling choices. This is an unusual track ... I'll give you that. But TC physics absolutely require a specific sounding that quasi-couples 79.5+ F SST with the lower tropospheric pseudo-adiabatic instability. They are designed by nature to release water stored thermal energy to the atmosphere - the process really is a remarkable aspect of Earth's budgeting ...etc..etc.. 70 F ( at best ..) spanning some 300 miles between the N interface with the Gulf Stream and Cape Cod, ain't it. That is physically impossible as a TC maintenance. I am therefore suspect in how/why the GFS strengthens Henri when passing over those cooler waters. Perhaps this thing is getting some sort of anomalous boost? I don't know... it could have some crazy inflow jet that it "umbilical" while diffluence over the NE upper troposphere associated with anticyclonic divergence ESE of Maine/NS ... Very speculative/imaginative to try and explain why the GFS does that. I think it is also possible that the modelers did this on purpose to f'k with and ultimate relish in Schadenfreude watching those that have no self control ... wind up like a top and spin way faster than this thing ever has any hope to.... LOL j/k 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 In HMNI we trust. It has been right all along. "Do not use this track map to make decisions" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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