Torch Tiger Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 There were individual 12z gfs ensemble members with hits or near-misses, too. I don't think this is a done-deal, not impossible but highly unlikely much more than some surf and maybe showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 49 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That's close enough, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 i still refuse to be suckered lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 I'm surprised Georgie isn't all over this. On an unrelated note, I'll be bummed if this is a close scrape and I can't get to Fishers to take in the surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 GFS keeps ticking west is it noise or a trend ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 This has got my attention. Watching. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hurricane models more east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hurricane models more east I’d care more about eps but this will be fish. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I wonder how bad the rains were on Jamaica jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d care more about eps but this will be fish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Lol HMON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 up and in...let's go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 GfS is way stronger but it looks like a fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: GfS is way stronger but it looks like a fish I don't think so .. thru 108 looks ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: I don't think so .. thru 108 looks ominous I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 There’s your weenie GFS run of the season. Basically a perfect “capture” to slingshot it into eastern NE as ridging over the top closes the escape route. Interesting, but show me the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: There’s your weenie GFS run of the season. Basically a perfect “capture” to slingshot it into eastern NE as ridging over the top closes the escape route. Interesting, but show me the ensembles. This run was also way stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The 0zGFS looks similar to Bob in 1991 but a bit weaker but the trend is stronger with Henri from run to run and not weird jumps in intensity and movement so this needs to be watched for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The further S&W it gets next 48hrs the closer it'll be up here. Strength also seems to be a factor. A stronger storm will be forced further west due to greater interaction with a weak trough near east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Also this one on the 0zGFS has a cat 2 hurricane so we can’t rule out a major heading for Montauk, RI or SE Massachusetts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This run was also way stronger Very first thing I noticed. It seems like a sensitive forecast to be based on intensity, and the next 24-48 hours are really tricky because moderate shear could increase Wednesday/Thursday and small storms can be more impacted by that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Wow at gfs... That'll turn some heads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I’m such a sucker/weenie. I know better but I can’t help but be excited even for the slimmest of chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 There’s obvious spread among the GEFS but there’s a definitive shift west this cycle through hour 102. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 49 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: up and in...let's go!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Ukie is west and an eastern NE hit on the crude maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 And we track... increasingly excited but I can't help but feel I will wake up tomorrow and it will appear to be headed definitively out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gefs is west at 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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