WxWatcher007 Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 31 minutes ago, Spaizzo said: I had to google pre but we had several torrential down pours here today and my guess about an inch in the last 8 hours based off the flood in our garage… wish our rain gauge didn’t float away 26 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: PRE? Predecessor Rain Event In simple terms these are significant rain events to the north or northwest of a tropical system—one that’s usually recurving. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 So much for my 4" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 29 minutes ago, Whineminster said: So much for my 4" lol thats what he said 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 50 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: so the higher resolution the model, the further east? Guess which one I'll be betting on I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system. I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards. That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence. If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 53 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system. I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards. That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence. If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction. i guess we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Two TOR warnings so far down here in DE but so far just breezy and pouring. How’s CT holding up? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 6 hours ago, Whineminster said: So much for my 4" lol My p/c is calling for 2-3". Not exactly an event for the history books. But it'll be a pretty wet first 9 days of July for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: My p/c is calling for 2-3". Not exactly an event for the history books. But it'll be a pretty wet first 9 days of July for sure. Likely the wettest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Weird that Box leaves Windham County in CT of TS warning, will do northern RI but leave out NE CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 If this were a moderate snow event, there's be about 20 new pages of posts during the overnight. Not so much for a meh tropical event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 7 hours ago, bristolri_wx said: I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system. I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards. That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence. If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction. I think you’re going to be correct. Good call. Radar looks impressive getting ready to rotate up through here the next 3-5 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Watch for sting jet on backside today briefly early afternoon HFD east right to coast. . Could be quick burst of N wind gusts 50mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Rain shield gaining lat, but not losing any long yet. 9z HRRR briefly made it into here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 gonna be a fun day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: gonna be a fun day I'm fired up. Just woke up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 58° +SHRA Looks pretty soupy in SE MA with those 70s dews. Those areas will be primed for a bit of wind. 10z HRRR gets a decent amount of rain up into the Lakes Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Radar looks fantastic. What a look. Really intensified. GFS was awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'm fired up. Just woke up. OK folks. I have the day off. All day to myself. Starting point is Dennis. I'll go anywhere from here to ptown. Taking a vote... Need help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Looking at the radar definitely think it's makes it here .. HRRR going to be wrong I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Radar looks fantastic. What a look. Really intensified. GFS was awful This. Not sure what kinds of rates folks are getting but the radar presentation is very impressive to say the least. Crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: OK folks. I have the day off. All day to myself. Starting point is Dennis. I'll go anywhere from here to ptown. Taking a vote... Need help. Chatham 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Woke up at 5 to one of the loudest downpours I’ve ever heard. An hour or two of that and we flash for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Chatham Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 OK folks. I have the day off. All day to myself. Starting point is Dennis. I'll go anywhere from here to ptown. Taking a vote... Need help. Head to Marconi Station in Wellfleet. High above the ocean. 360 views. No trees to fall on you. Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: gonna be a meh day FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: Head to Marconi Station in Wellfleet. High above the ocean. 360 views. No trees to fall on you. Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk Any chance it will be closed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Heavy heavy rain in these initial bands. Not much wind earlier, but the tree tops are starting to move now. Still pretty light though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 57/55F Heavy rain. We should miss the CDO of Elsa but some nice heavy rain just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Decided to take the dog out for her morning walk as it was only raining lightly. Alas, that didn't hold--became heavy about 1/3 of the way into the 1-mile loop. At least she got her dump in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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