40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: July is trash but August is even more trash so it's a long road to the downside. We need some MDR-action up here. Yea, I just see the light at the end of the ennui by August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 38 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Meh. Best winds shifting east Hopefully east trend continues with rain also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Don't disagree with any of that. Been a while since we've gotten a cane up here. An active peak gives us the best odds and I think the peak will be active again this year. If Elsa hits right we could see some flooding issues in CT due to the wet period we've seen, but other than that I'm not expecting anything particularly noteworthy here. Yea, like I said...its weather and its a weather forum. Haha Beats temp talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 I feel like this time last week we could toss everything HRRR after how poorly it had been doing. Then it sucks you back in after doing OK with Tues-Weds. 12z NAM is back down to earth a bit imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Right on the edge..seems like the outer cape is in a real good spot at the moment. Expecting 30-40mph gusts, anything more would be a pleasant surprise Would love to get a Cape cane chase in someday. Big wind blizzard would be good too but those are tough to come by it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 3 hours ago, jbenedet said: Not your classic TC, long wave trough interaction. It’s really more of a TC and potent shortwave interaction. I dunno what climo is off the top of my head but from what I recall, late spring or especially fall is when we have these come up our way due to more meridional flow that accompanies these seasons. We’re getting into mid July. We don’t have a big Bermuda High..What gives? I’m seeing surface temps in NNE in the 60’s while Areas of extreme northwestern Canada are pushing 90. A lot more baroclincity around the CONUS than one would expect. And that means more UL jet dynamics than one would expect. That’s my best guess as to what intensification the models curiously are seeing. Indeed .. An aspect that I have found interesting is that the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic heights have been unusually gapped, adding another oddity ( call it 'strangeness' ) about the hemisphere. Longer general musing: Typically, when we get 588 dm height layout, we're running 574 dm thickness contouring within a couple latitude-clicks on the equatorial side. But what I am observing are lot of 574-type depths swallowed up under 590+ to 600 dm non- hyrdo heights. Not so much out west... but E of ~ 110 or so across the vastness of the Plains, S Canada, Lakes ...MV/MA... NE so forth. I've even seen 590/566 .. Building frames for towering sky scraper heat, but only outfitting the building to the 10th floor. Simplest words, unfulfilled heat potential. It's like "playing with fire", too ( pun hopefully irritating of course). I'm not sure what is causing this, but it's no fluke. It's been happening in recent years too - just noticing it more so this year. Thing is, it's also sort of insidious because to the lay-person, we were 97/72 during the last week of June. Heights nearing 600 dm or not, who the f* cares, right? But that's an example where the hydrostratic heights were only (only, ha) 575 or so when that happened. We could have been 585. That's when the low stops at 84 at LGA/Logan in a 'refreshing' pilot light zephyr right out of their attendant urban heat islands. In today's post modernism reluctance to except CC ( in whatever fervor that still abounds...), that would set the stage for 95+ by 9. Outre donkey ballz SD stuff. I mean, there may be a limit to the amount of energy we can pack into the column at this latitude per solar insolation budget. Not sure on that. But, we do have a mechanism to potentially maximize beyond, and set those sort of tables. We need the synoptic-Pacific to send height surge between Hawaii and Frisco ... That would lower heights down the west coast. The total "Sonoran Heat Release" model starts with a +PNAP capping out west under solar max broiler, then that larger disruption arrives and ejects that thermal layer ( usually with an EML, but more specifically the 850 mb kinetic bomb is the impetus here) ... I think it is a matter of time that we send a +22.5C 850 mb lava lake toward Chi Town with zero synoptic inhibition to divert it. We see relative magnitude ejection scenarios, they don't all have the eastern isohypses layout ridge dome/scaffolding..not the favorable lower Maritime of Canada... i.e., a positive NAO orientation over the western limb of that index domain space. If that lifts the continental escape latitudes of the westerlies... you will draw that Sonoran air layer up here and that would complete the Bunsen burner. July 1911 104 F in Albany back when 594 dm was not the new 588 ? think about that - and guess what for Logan and LGA, when that happens and wind is WNW under 600 dm heights. "Hey, let me show you my dads gun" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Is speed going to limit the big rain totals… like 3”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 We have a kayaking trip on the Saco planned for next week. I’ve heard horror stories of people having to wait and drag kayaks and canoes through water that’s 2” deep… guessing this will help that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah.., looks like the big rain will be in areas that have been pretty dry too Lol wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is speed going to limit the big rain totals… like 3”+ Prolly not? My thinking on that is that if I can get .74" in 23 minutes from a thunderstorm, I can get 3+" in a 4 hour passage by system toting along a PWAT density of 2.5" - i.e., right at the top of the climate and possible a SD beyond. But it probably wouldn't be 3" like latex paint .. it'd be 1.75 with streaks of FFwarnings 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We have a kayaking trip on the Saco planned for next week. I’ve heard horror stories of people having to wait and drag kayaks and canoes through water that’s 2” deep… guessing this will help that That was me last year. PITA but still worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We have a kayaking trip on the Saco planned for next week. I’ve heard horror stories of people having to wait and drag kayaks and canoes through water that’s 2” deep… guessing this will help that Probably won't help much, The stories you heard are true, My boys go tubing on the saco and carrying your tube is commonplace especially the closer to August you get, June is the best time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably won't help much, The stories you heard are true, My boys go tubing on the saco and carrying your tube is commonplace especially the closer to August you get. Did you see the story about the 5 people who drowned when they went over a dam while tubing in North Carolina, 3 survived after being stranded for a day . Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Did you see the story about the 9 people who drowned when they went over a dam while tubing in North Carolina, 3 survived after being stranded for a day . Incredible I did see that, I'm wondering if there was a buoy line that was suppose to be across before the dam spill? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: What is going to happen in August ? The Mets tank 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We have a kayaking trip on the Saco planned for next week. I’ve heard horror stories of people having to wait and drag kayaks and canoes through water that’s 2” deep… guessing this will help that This isn't your worst problem. Drunken college kids up at 4am lighting fireworks is. We went for 4 years in a row. It was WILD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Prolly not? My thinking on that is that if I can get .74" in 23 minutes from a thunderstorm, I can get 3+" in a 4 hour passage by system toting along a PWAT density of 2.5" - i.e., right at the top of the climate and possible a SD beyond. But it probably wouldn't be 3" like latex paint .. it'd be 1.75 with streaks of FFwarnings This.....I think with 4-6” totals in the past week, another 2-5” doesn’t help matters and won’t take much wind to bring down some trees due to soaked soil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 i've seen so many of these systems produce higher than expected totals on the west edge 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i've seen so many of these systems produce higher than expected totals on the west edge There's going to be a quite a bit of lift and divergence aloft, especially with that trough amplifying a bit across southeastern Canada...not to mention the abundance of instability. Rainfall rates are going to be pretty insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There's going to be a quite a bit of lift and divergence aloft, especially with that trough amplifying a bit across southeastern Canada...not to mention the abundance of instability. Rainfall rates are going to be pretty insane. yup. i don't give a shit what the nam says 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hopefully east trend continues with rain also. The Green will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: makes sense-doubt there's many issues with power from I-91 and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: makes sense-doubt there's many issues with power from I-91 and west wonder what model they use to produce that map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 I'm riding the HRRR. Hopefully not off of the Tobin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Idk, I'm excited. Everyone go buy a beachside condo near me. We can have weenie cook outs in these events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Idk, I'm excited. Everyone go buy a beachside condo near me. We can have weenie cook outs in these events. Grill this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, forkyfork said: yup. i don't give a shit what the nam/rgem/gfs/ggem/ukmet or icon says fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 CT loses power more than Haiti. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 hour ago, amarshall said: This isn't your worst problem. Drunken college kids up at 4am lighting fireworks is. We went for 4 years in a row. It was WILD. Maybe that's a feature and not a bug for him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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