MJO812 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5 hours ago, dendrite said: 3k NAM looks like the euro with track. Could be quite the soaker. don't need another soaker, just got 4.5" last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: don't need another soaker, just got 4.5" last weekend This was my concern, many got a decent drink this last week, setting up some hydro issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I'll take what you don't want. 2.25" in the past storm. Helped but I will take a few inches more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: a nice little shift for my interests 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Wet Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I'm not getting how this becomes a TS again passing New England after spending so much time over land... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, All Wet said: I'm not getting how this becomes a TS again passing New England after spending so much time over land... Enhancement from the trough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, All Wet said: I'm not getting how this becomes a TS again passing New England after spending so much time over land... Enhancement from trough to the west. Won’t be nearly as noticeable as Isaias 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Love me some RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3.20" so far this month here, Elsa looks like it could be another 1-3"+ with that track as it keeps shifting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Wet Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Enhancement from the trough Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Here we go-another period of rain and wind but thankfully this one without the mid April temperatures. Decent rain and blow upcoming and finally I’m home for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 12z GFS is still meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Difflock Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Enhancement from trough to the west. Won’t be nearly as noticeable as Isaias you mean wind wise?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, Difflock said: you mean wind wise?? Correct; I would assume the maximum gusts will be around 70 somewhere on the immediate coasts (and any bands that mix down?) but most everywhere else is <30-50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Talk about a weenie! Won't even be close! Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi interaction with non tropical feature will cause Elsa to pack Isaias like punch in the NE and MA. s to se winds cause more tree damage than NW at same speed 2 reasons, 1) most strong NW gusts in winter,. 2. Trees lean SE ( especially pines) Better lift. Prepare for outages 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Talk about a weenie! Won't even be close! Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi interaction with non tropical feature will cause Elsa to pack Isaias like punch in the NE and MA. s to se winds cause more tree damage than NW at same speed 2 reasons, 1) most strong NW gusts in winter,. 2. Trees lean SE ( especially pines) Better lift. Prepare for outages I bet Joe loves his job of getting to shout nonsense from the heavens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: just can't get over your case of TDS...i'm here for the weather not your political views That's actually my bad I deleted I thought I was in banter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: That's actually my bad I deleted I thought I was in banter i deleted mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 For the first time i can remember the center of the cone goes directly over me. This is going to be interesting/fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 anyone think we get any watches or warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 First time I've ever read the ICON being discussed in BOX discussion? GFS "thrown out" lol... Quote Confidence still highest in heavy rainfall with tropical downpours associated with Elsa as it moves through. PWAT values will get up to 2-2.25 inches, which is around the maximum for this time of year per SPC Sounding Climatology for CHH. Unsurprisingly, will have warm cloud layer depths between 3.5-4.5 km, so will have very efficient rainfall processes going on. Still some uncertainty on the track, which will delineate where the heaviest QPF is located and where the wind risk will be. Right now the greatest probabilities of 24 hr QPF AOA 1 inch are highest across the interior per the EPS/GEFS guidance, which falls in line with a more inland track as shown by the latest ECMWF. Will really need to hone in on this track for determining where the highest rainfall amounts are anticipated. This is somewhat in contrast to some of the latest deterministic guidance showing the highest swath from eastern CT/RI into eastern MA. So, will need to really hone in on the track to determine where the heaviest rain will fall and where there could potentially be a flood threat especially given the recent rains we`ve received. Went with the latest WPC guidance for QPF. Agree with the WPC latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. As stated in the previous section, will really need to hone in on the track of Elsa to determine not only the heavy rainfall risk, but also where the damaging wind risk will be highest. The latest ECWMF/NAM guidance are concerning given we have a 60-70+ kt southerly 925 hPa jet associated with Elsa crossing eastern portions of the CWA. Other pieces of deterministic guidance are a bit more muted with the strength of this jet, but have really just thrown out the GFS in the latest update as it appears to keep the core too far offshore, which is counter to the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON/NAM and GEM guidance. Will need to watch this closely. Once again will refer folks to the official NHC page for the official track/timing of Elsa as it moves through the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, correnjim1 said: anyone think we get any watches or warnings? I think we see tropical storm watches today, I would think? Would have to be soon ish. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Nova737 said: For the first time i can remember the center of the cone goes directly over me. This is going to be interesting/fun. I think the last time center went directly over RI was Bob in 1991... been close in a few other cases... not sure if this thing will be tropical as it passes over New England though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I think the last time center went directly over RI was Bob in 1991... been close in a few other cases... not sure if this thing will be tropical as it passes over New England though... Bob happened a year before I was born. The last significant tropical conditions I recall were from Irene in 2011 and even that storm made landfall 2 states over. Lost power for 3 days. This wont be nearly as strong as that, but it will still be entertaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I think the last time center went directly over RI was Bob in 1991... been close in a few other cases... not sure if this thing will be tropical as it passes over New England though... Ok but does the center of the storm have a less probability of passing towards the edges of the cone, or is it the same percentage of probability throughout the whole cone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Is he coming? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is he coming? Probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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