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July 2021 Discussion

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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Whineminster

Whineminster

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Saguaro said:

Just checked the P&C for my former western ME location: 60s and low 70s for the entire period. Yeesh. Yea this summer is beyond shot back that way, though that writing was on the wall once July began. I didn't think that that first June heat event would be as hot as it ever got for the season, though some previous seasons in the past have behaved similarly enough that it's by no means unprecedented at this point. I recall getting groceries in North Conway during the warmest day in June and it was pretty legit heat, to the point of me noticing the similarity to my daily experiences in AZ.

 

Did you retire out there or something? Jealous. 

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STILL N OF PIKE
STILL N OF PIKE

I say this with love A literal monkey could put a A.C unit in that window ..maybe you need to do a mod like adding a tiny piece of wood so it sits with a better tilt . This doesn’t require pages

moneypitmike
moneypitmike

Tip had assembled their playset after he accomplished the feat of installing his air conditioner.

dendrite
dendrite

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Didn't fall off here in N Mass as much as the air sniffed like it wanted to... interesting.

57 to 63 is the bell curve from scanning around the hill-folk home stations tied into Wunder'.  

I see a definitive pattern change on the way. The hemisphere moves away from the anomalous R-wave ridge-trough .. to something- not sure the models/ens means know where to go really.  That look out there almost seems like a waiting pattern for a signal to re-emerge, or assert anew either way. Either way, I don't see a longitudinal ridge along and S of 40 N as being very stable.  I also find it interesting that some recent operational Euro and GFS are signaling another retrograde warm front event, similar to what transpired once or twice back in June - in both occasions, preceding a WAR retrograde. 

As an aside: I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like.  PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA.   Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts.  I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever.

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too.  I hypothesize why.. 

The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers.  It's relaxing, but not 'as much'.  In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets.  [ enter data to support here that is not merely anecdotal lol ]

This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that.  Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest is academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months.  "When," in this sense means nothing.  So, you tend to better definitive wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life (if not partly so).  

But that's hypothesis.  It's a bit of a subjective-objective marriage there in order to science. We are not PHD legends sitting behind an Earth toned oak desk with a retinue of terrified grad students in a state of default institutional abuse to maintain their grants, just begging for an opportunity to prove it is true ... Besides most marriages fail inside of 5 years anyway LOL.  

I tell you ...as much as it curls my toe-nails to say this abused ism, 'Imagine if that happened in winter'  Ugh I hate the escapism. It's so meaninglessly arbitrary. It's like being in a 20 minute typical summer thunderstorm, and say, gee - imagine ?  But in this case the comparison carries more usefulness because, that is an unusually clustered/'instructive looking' curve up there, and probably an unsung or tallied metric, it is one that may have never been 'modeled' to do that before. Man, it'd take Rain Man to track of that sort of thing .. ha!  But in early August by an entire ensemble system.  Every member

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Didn't fall off here in N Mass as much as the air sniffed like it wanted to... interesting.

57 to 63 is the bell curve.  

I see a definitive pattern change away from the anomalous R-wave ridge-trough ..

As an aside: I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like.  PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA.   Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts.  I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever.

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too.  I hypothesize why.. 

The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers.  It's relaxing, but not 'as much'.  In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets.  [ enter data to support here that is not anecdotal lol ]

This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that.  Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest if academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months.  "When," in this sense means nothing.  So, you have a wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life.  

But that's hypothesis.  It's a bit of a subjective-objective marriage there in order to science. We are not PHD legends sitting behind an Earth toned oak desk with a retinue of terrified grad students in a state of default institutional abuse to maintain their grants, just begging for an opportunity to prove it is true ... Besides most marriages fail inside of 5 years anyway LOL.  

I tell you ...as much as it curls my toe-nails to say this abused ism, 'Imagine if that happened in winter'  Ugh I hate the escapism. It's so meaninglessly arbitrary. It's like being in a 20 minute typical summer thunderstorm, and say, gee - imagine ?  But in this case the comparison carries more usefulness because, that is an unusually clustered curve up there and probably an unsung on tallied metric, one that may have never been 'modeled' to do that before by an entire ensemble system.  Every member

EPO plus PNA is a real good indicator  and my go to summer planner . Expect a pretty good storm around the 8th as we return to a warmer more humid airmass. The pattern has repeated over and over since Memorial day.139393668_download(8).png.6c1304764ca68ae391caeaa451406138.png1697480432_download(9).png.c60b9bec1a5c4fb93337b4811a132957.png

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Ginx. Living in the NYC Brooklyn UHI enhanced sub tropics, I was wondering if Boston’s anomaly was due to a similar UHI cause.?. As always ….

Not as much as marine air, as it being on an Island, but certainly being surrounded by a concrete jungle to its west there is UHI plus the tarmac its on. Good morning,  my wife flew out to Omaha for a week to see my son and grandkids. Early 230 am wake up and drive for my loss. Good morning? 

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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not as much as marine air, as it being on an Island, but certainly being surrounded by a concrete jungle to its west there is UHI plus the tarmac its on. Good morning,  my wife flew out to Omaha for a week to see my son and grandkids. Early 230 am wake up and drive for my loss. Good morning? 

Your point is made. I neglected to turn on the backup boiler switch after having the boiler serviced. The cold shower, this am, that I endured at 74+, is neither necessary or desirable. It did jog my memory about the back up switch. Have a good morning anyway and hope the family remains hale and hearty, as always….

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, rclab said:

Your point is made. I neglected to turn on the backup boiler switch after having the boiler serviced. The cold shower, this am, that I endured at 74+, is neither necessary or desirable. It did jog my memory about the back up switch. Have a good morning anyway and hope the family remains hale and hearty, as always….

The great thing about this time of year is the water is so warm no matter the outside temp its very comfortable.  I went for my lake swim and despite the air temp of 70 with a strong breeze it was very enjoyable. Sun is gone now though. Looks like showers moving in. Olympics time. Hope you and yours are doing well.

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